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August 27 Exterior Policy reported that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was considering suspending $ 130 million in US aid to Ethiopia. In less than a week, the United States, on the orders of President Trump, suspended some of the aid, hoping that such action would cajole Addis Ababa into reaching a Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) deal with Egypt. The opinion from Washington DC is that they want an agreement to be reached before Ethiopia continues to fill the dam.
The US decision shows a limited understanding of GERD, the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa, and that a transactional foreigner has many limitations. In essence, the decision does not serve US interests in the region, but rather weakens it, as Ethiopia can easily find others to cover the deficit.
Construction of the $ 4.8 billion that the GERD began in April 2011. The dam, which draws water from the Blue Nile, should hold 74 billion cubic meters. It is expected to generate up to 6,000 megawatts of energy, and in doing so, address Ethiopia’s energy insecurity – around 60 million Ethiopians have no or very limited access to electricity. In addition, the Ethiopian government also hoped to export energy to some of its neighbors, which would allow it to earn valuable foreign exchange to the country. Thus, the dam has become an important national symbol, with popular musicians releasing songs extolling the construction and what it would mean to the common people of Ethiopia, as the government sold the dam to the people as the great panacea. for Ethiopia’s energy insecurity.
GERD, as expected, has become a major problem, primarily for Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile. Egyptians are concerned that the dam will absorb much of the water Egypt needs for its burgeoning population, agriculture and industry. There have been many attempts at negotiation, some sponsored by the United States and others by the African Union. But to date, no resolution to the dispute has been reached, in part because Egypt cannot accept that it does not have full control over the Nile. On the contrary, for Ethiopia, GERD is the great hope for a better tomorrow.
One of the reasons why the US decision is unlikely to encourage the Ethiopian government to change course comes from the recognition that Abiy Ahmed Ali is under enormous internal pressure and that compromising the dam would only weaken its position. Abiy is dealing with anger over the way his government postponed federal elections, sparking accusations of authoritarianism. Abiy is also enraged by the way the security services responded to the murder of the musician and activist, Hachalu Hundessa, on the 29th, including the decision to arrest and detain thousands of people, many of whom oppose the government. There is also discontent with the way the government has dealt with the Tigray Regional Zone, the center of Abiy’s main political opponents, the Tigray Party for Democracy and Justice, and its demand for regional elections, which has since Has celebrated. The conflict with Tigray is partly due to Tigray’s unhappiness at losing political power, which they have held since 1991, even though they represent around 5% of the population. The push for regional elections emphasizes the growing demand from Ethiopia’s many ethnic groups for more power at the expense of the federation.
Another big challenge for Abiy is the state of the economy. He came to power thanks to an ambitious economic policy aimed at liberalizing sectors such as telecommunications and finance, but the COVID-19 pandemic has derailed much of that program. Some of the measures taken to combat the spread have had a disastrous impact on key sectors, mainly agriculture, but also construction. For example, travel restrictions have affected the agricultural sector, already under pressure from desert locust infestations and perpetual underinvestment. Therefore, it was not surprising to learn that in a World Bank survey many Ethiopians expressed great apprehension for the future.
Several things are working in Abiy’s favor when we look at the US decision to suspend aid and why it is unlikely to deter Ethiopians from reaching an agreement with Egypt first. The first is China. Sino-Ethiopian relations, which began in 1970, have always been strong. From the beginning, Beijing recognized Ethiopia’s geostrategic importance, either with respect to its African policy (Addis Ababa is the home of the African Union) or Beijing’s revisionist foreign policy, symbolized by the Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI).
Ethiopia was quick to subscribe to the BRI, seeing it as a way to obtain the necessary capital and expertise as successive governments seek to develop Ethiopia. China and Chinese companies are providing capital for the construction of the Ethiopia-Djibouti railway, building roads, a national sports stadium and supporting the construction of the dam. China has also provided humanitarian and specifically COVID-19 assistance to Ethiopia, including helping Ethiopia manufacture its COVID-19 test kits rather than relying on others. These are just a few of the steps Beijing has taken to ensure it has a solid foundation in Ethiopia. Abiy knows she can trust Beijing, that it wants access to one of the fastest growing populations in Africa.
A second thing that works for Abiy is that she has international support. Shortly after coming to power in 2018, he reached out to Eritrea, Ethiopia’s longtime enemy, and made important concessions, such as ceding the Badme village, which was awarded to Eritrea in 2002, without preconditions. This led to a Noble Peace Prize. Abiy has also benefited from having a progressive domestic politics that includes the release of countless high-profile political prisoners.
The US decision, which was supposedly taken by President Trump, is shortsighted because the size of the aid is relatively small to lure Addis Ababa to change course. In addition, the cut will not affect US humanitarian assistance to Ethiopia, which has not been affected as USAID recognizes that more than 16 million people need assistance due to COVID-19 and other crises such as the locust plague and change. climate.
Second, Abiy knows that slowing down the filling process or making major concessions to Egypt would enrage many Ethiopians who see the dam as a panacea and the start of a golden tomorrow.
Third, Abiy has the support of key riparian states that support the dam and see the potential for its energy security. There is more dislike of the Egyptian attitude, and many of the affected states feel that Egypt has hounded the region for too long. Concomitantly, having President Trump on your side when it comes to African affairs is not necessarily a good thing, as many on the continent, who have never visited, remember the disparaging remarks he has made towards the continent and its people.
Fourth, Abiy knows that it can easily replace US aid, as countries recognize the importance of Ethiopia as it is a huge country, with more than 100 million people, many of whom are young and seeking to benefit from the benefits. fruits of industrialization. Furthermore, President Trump is believed to have intervened because she supports President al-Sisi, an authoritarian leader. In other words, the president of the United States prefers an authoritarian and unpopular leader to a democratically elected popular leader.
To have a transactional foreign policy, you need to have leverage, but in this specific case, the United States has seriously overestimated its leverage, limiting its ability to affect change and becoming less relevant in the Horn of Africa, at a time when that China is consolidating. its presence in this crucial region.
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