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* A think-tank study examines growing ecological threats
* Fresh water availability dropped 60% in the last 50 years
* Resource scarcity fuels conflict, migration
By Luke Baker
LONDON, Sept. 9 (Reuters) – Rapid population growth, lack of access to food and water and increased exposure to natural disasters mean that more than 1 billion people will face displacement by 2050, according to a new analysis of global ecological threats.
Compiled by the Institute for the Economy and Peace (IEP), a group of experts that produces annual indices of terrorism and peace, the Ecological Threat Registry uses data from the United Nations and other sources to assess eight ecological threats and predict which countries and regions are the most affected. at risk.
With the world’s population forecast to rise to nearly 10 billion by 2050, intensifying the struggle for resources and fueling conflict, research shows that up to 1.2 billion people living in vulnerable areas of sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and the The Middle East may be required to migrate by 2050.
By comparison, ecological factors and conflict caused the displacement of some 30 million people in 2019, according to the report.
“This will have enormous social and political impacts, not only in the developing world, but also in the developed one, as massive displacement will lead to greater refugee flows to more developed countries,” said Steve Killelea, founder of the IEP.
The registry groups threats into two broad categories: food insecurity, water scarcity, and population growth into one; and natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, cyclones, rising sea levels and rising temperatures in the other.
The result is an analysis that assesses how many threats each of some 150 countries faces and their ability to deal with them.
While some, like India and China, are more threatened by water scarcity in the coming decades, others like Pakistan, Iran, Mozambique, Kenya and Madagascar face a toxic mix of threats, as well as a diminishing ability to cope. .
“These countries are broadly stable now, but have high exposure to ecological hazards and low and deteriorating ‘positive peace’, which means they are at increased risk of future collapse,” the 90-page analysis found.
Killelea said the world now has 60% less freshwater available than 50 years ago, while demand for food is forecast to increase by 50% in the next 30 years, driven in large part by the expansion of the class. average in Asia.
Those factors, combined with natural disasters whose frequency will only increase due to climate change, mean that even stable states are vulnerable by 2050.
The IEP said it hoped the registry, which can be turned into an annual review, will shape aid and development policies, with more emphasis and funding earmarked for climate-related impacts. (Edited by Alex Richardson)
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