[ad_1]
On Monday, about a dozen people, including four journalists and a senior analyst, were unable to board a flight to Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia. Three more journalists reported that they had received calls warning them not to try to travel to cover the elections.
Led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the federal government postponed the March general elections due to the coronavirus pandemic. The decision was supported by his Party of Prosperity and the main opposition parties.
The Tigray region government refused to abide by the decision, seeing the postponement as an attempt by Abiy, the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner, to prolong his grip on power and restrict the region’s autonomy.
Read more: Political tensions rise ahead of planned regional elections in Ethiopia
“[Tigrayans] forget that a real pandemic is taking place, “said Jan Abbink, professor of politics and governance at the Center for African Studies at the University of Leiden.
On Saturday, the Federation Chamber, the upper house of Ethiopia’s legislature, unanimously declared that the elections for the regional parliament were “unconstitutional” and the results “therefore void”. But the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which governs the region, is expected to go ahead with voting for a new administration.
Federal and regional government officials see themselves as followers of Ethiopia’s constitution and rule of law. Tigray political scientist Yemane Zerai told DW that legalistic theorizing didn’t make much sense. “Political relations will determine the relationship,” he said, “which can lead to a peaceful coexistence or can lead to a total disconnection, which can lead to the disintegration of the Ethiopian state, or at least to the separation of the Tigrayan State.” .
The election campaign in Mekelle was carried out in defiance of Addis Ababa
Domino effect
Relations between the TPLF and the federal government have deteriorated markedly since the former refused to join the Prime Minister’s Prosperity Party when it was formed in 2019. “We know that there is an open threat from Abiy to intervene militarily against Tigray and cut funding, but we will still go ahead with the vote, “said Getachew Reda, a TPLF spokesman and former federal information minister.
According to an analysis by think tank International Crisis Group, Abiy told a local media outlet that talking about a military intervention in the Tigray region was “crazy” and said there were no plans for one under any circumstances. But she has repeatedly said there would be consequences, without going into detail.
Since taking power in 2018, Abiy has liberalized Ethiopia’s politics and economy. But ethnic tension and outbreaks of violence have continued to change as politicians in the provinces try to assert their authority against that of the federal government.
The TPLF has raised the elections as a matter of safeguarding democratic rights and autonomy. On the streets of Mekelle, opinions are divided. “This is a way of showing the world and Ethiopia that we are helping to secure our self-administration rights,” resident Leake Zegeye told DW.
But Merha Selam Meressa told DW that she was afraid of what might come of this act of defiance. “The situation is not good,” he said. “It could lead to a conflict.”
While acknowledging the potential for violence, Abbink said he did not believe it would come in the form of a military intervention by the central government. “Knowing the goals of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership and style, he is unlikely to do so,” he said. “He will try to maintain the dialogue, in the hope that some modus vivendi will be resolved.”
Many analysts believe that the parties could reach a compromise in which the TPLF would agree to hold a second election as soon as the pandemic is under control and the federal government would work with the election winners in the meantime.
Read more: Ethiopia’s democratization in danger
The TPLF fight
There is a real danger from this situation. “It may well be that other regions, like the Somali region, the Oromia region, the Amhara region, are inclined to say, ‘Well, if Tigray holds elections, I can do the same,'” Abbink said.
“This does not apply to most of Abiy’s allies in government,” he said, “but when it comes to what we might call ethno-nationalism, there are a few in the Oromia and Amhara regions who really want to increase autonomy and they can put pressure on the government. ”
This is particularly true for the TPLF. “It is obvious that Tigray has a real problem and is struggling to reinvent itself in terms of its role within the Ethiopian federation,” Abbink said. Despite representing an ethnic minority, the TPLF dominated Ethiopia’s ruling coalition for nearly three decades before anti-government protests led to Abiy’s appointment as prime minister in 2018. Having lost its national prominence, the TPLF became into.
Read more: On trial for the 2020 elections, the Ethiopian government faces ethno-nationalism
“They have been disengaging from the federal level,” Abbink said. “If you talk about the removal of members of the Tigray government, the problem is that they never attended the meetings. They did not do their job. They did not have the will to be part of the federal government.”
Military parades have been held in various towns in Tigray in recent weeks
In the past six months, Zerai said, the Tigray region government has instituted what it considers a de facto state. “The institutional settlements that we have seen, the laws that are being enacted in Tigray and the actions that are being taken to mobilize the people show that it is separating from the federal government,” he said. However, he noted that, unlike other regions of Ethiopia, Tigray has experienced peace.
Miilion Haileselassie contributed to this article.
[ad_2]
