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Emmanuel Macron returned to Paris on Wednesday night after a three-day trip to Beirut and Baghdad during which he played the role of a modern-day Lawrence of Arabia, promising sovereignty to the long-suffering citizens of Lebanon and Iraq.
“This battle for the sovereignty of Iraq is essential,” said the French president, “to ensure that these people who have suffered so much are not subjected to the domination of regional powers and Islamist terrorism.”
Iraq has been divided between the United States and Iran since Saddam Hussein was deposed by a US-led coalition in 2003. US President Donald Trump reiterated on August 21 that he would withdraw some 5,000 US troops from Iraq. Macron sees an opportunity for France to step into the void left by America’s disengagement.
Both countries are decomposing, imploding. Neither has developed a civilized and inclusive sense of national belonging.
Macron on Wednesday became the first foreign leader to meet with the new Iraqi prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a former Muslim Shiite Iraqi intelligence chief who was appointed in May. He also met with Iraqi Kurdish President Barham Salih, the Sunni president of the assembly, Mohammed al-Halbousi, and Nechirvan Barzani, president of the Kurdish autonomous region.
The resurgence of the Islamic State terror group and French rivalry with Turkey have also spurred Macron’s new interest in Iraq, says Adel Bakawan, head of research at the French Middle East think tank Iremmo.
Macron is in conflict with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over Libya, Syria, energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean, and now Iraq. “Thousands of Turkish soldiers and special forces have gone to northern Iraq to fight the [Kurdish] PKK, which Turkey considers a terrorist group, ”Bakawan said. “When Macron evokes Iraqi sovereignty, he is criticizing the Turkish offensive.”
Repressed
There are similarities between the two countries that Macron has taken under his wing. Both saw violent street protests put down by Iranian-backed militias last fall. Both economies are in shambles. And both have confessional systems of government in which positions are attributed based on religious origins.
“Both countries are decomposing, imploding,” Bakawan said. “Neither has developed a civilized and inclusive sense of national belonging.”
The title of Bakawan’s book, The Impossible Iraqi State, betrays his pessimism. “Personally, I believe that the objective conditions in Beirut and Baghdad prevent the functioning of a normal sovereign state,” he said. “Confessionalism is not the only pathology. There is also tribalism, terrorism, regionalism and systemic corruption. “
Macron has set a timetable for Lebanon. “There is one thing we can build step by step,” he said in Beirut on Tuesday night. “Trust.”
It is surprising that he has not yet involved the EU, because he is considered a leader of the EU
Macron’s return to Beirut focused the minds of Lebanese politicians enough to agree to the appointment of a new prime minister, the former Lebanese ambassador to Berlin, Mustapha Adib.
“He’s lucid,” Macron said of Adib. “He has walked the streets and knows that he is not seen as a savior, because he is the result of a system that does not have the confidence of the people.”
Macron’s Lebanese interlocutors promised to form a “government with a mission” in 15 days. In recent years, he noted, it has taken up to 11 months.
‘Cosmetic changes’
It was not his job to “anoint or approve cosmetic changes” in the Lebanese government, Macron said. He explained his willingness to speak to the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, saying: “If I wanted to be a purist, I would say that you have to condemn Hezbollah, disarm them, and I would go home and you would still have your problem and nothing would have changed.”
The French president convened Lebanese leaders to another donor conference in Paris in the second half of October. The € 9.2 billion pledged at the April 2018 Cedar Conference has yet to be disbursed because Lebanon failed to pass an anti-corruption law or complete a central bank audit.
Macron promised to return to Beirut for the third time in five months in December.
Although Macron often referred to the United Nations, he seems to have forgotten about the European Union. “France alone has no chance of succeeding,” says Bakawan. “With the help of the EU and the UN, France can play a very positive role. It is surprising that he has not yet involved the EU, because he is seen as a leader of the EU. “
EU support “must be obtained now,” the Le Monde editorial said, “to limit the dangers of a lonely adventure.”
