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Iraq remains a battlefield despite Al-Kadhimi’s efforts
As Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi struggles to assert his nation’s independence and lead his people to peace and prosperity, some emerging opportunities for a new national and regional order were exposed last month, along with serious challenges. facing his troubled country.
Turkey continued its attacks inside Iraq against the positions of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), whose forces are located in the mountains near the Turkish-Iraqi border. Turkish forces are now 15 km inside Iraqi territory and have established at least 50 checkpoints.
On August 11, a Turkish drone struck Iraqi border guards and killed a general and a brigadier. So far, Baghdad has been quietly accommodating to these Turkish incursions, but this attack has drawn intense official and popular anger as it sharply exposes the country’s inability to safeguard its sovereignty and protect its superior officers.
Al-Kadhimi is particularly upset that he has few resources with which to deal with the Turks. Given Iraq’s dire economic situation, trade ties with Turkey, valued at more than $ 15 billion last year, are crucial to the national well-being. Therefore, beyond a diplomatic move by Baghdad and expressions of support from its Arab neighbors, Iraq has been unable to take any effective action. This has sparked great public anger, with thousands of protesters expressing anti-Turkish sentiments on the streets of Baghdad, in the north and in Kurdish areas.
Without a political base, few believe that the prime minister can effect a real change in the political order.
Talmiz Ahmad |
In this context of external attack and popular discontent, Al-Kadhimi visited Washington on August 19 for a bilateral “strategic dialogue” that included a meeting with President Donald Trump. America’s agenda was clear: to separate Iraq from Iranian influence and bring it closer to itself and its Arab neighbors. From the American side, all the correct buttons were pressed. Trump referred to Al-Kadhimi as a “highly respected gentleman” and announced that they had “become friends.” The joint statement affirmed the bilateral security association.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States would help achieve “a stable, prosperous and independent Iraq” and offered development assistance of $ 204 million for health, education and employment initiatives. Al-Kadhimi, for his part, declared Iraq was “open for business,” with major agreements signed with US oil and power companies, as well as an agreement for the US to supply rice to support Iraq’s food rationing system. .
Al-Kadhimi also spoke of Daesh’s “sleeper cells” in the country, indicating his interest in the continued presence of some US troops for “training and capacity enhancement.” After his return, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US troop presence would drop by a third over the next few months.
Iran was clearly on the minds of all participants. It was clear to American commentators that the United States needed to strengthen Iraq economically through budget support and longer-term assistance to reduce its dependence on Tehran. Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said Iraq needs both Iran and the United States, but added that the Iranians “are intervening more” and called for a “rectification” of bilateral ties.
The last significant event in August was Al-Kadhimi’s presence at the Arab tripartite summit with the leaders of Egypt and Jordan in Amman; its third summit since March of last year. Their joint statement highlighted economic and security cooperation, with particular attention to water and food security and the fight against the coronavirus disease pandemic.
Beyond the rhetoric, the summit had considerable symbolic value, as it highlighted a burgeoning alliance that was bringing Iraq back into the Arab mainstream. Al-Kadhimi described the summit as a “brotherly gathering” and a “gateway to the future.” The three leaders spoke in support of the Palestinian cause and endorsed the two-state solution. Jordan emphasized its custody of the holy sites in Jerusalem, while Egypt gained support over its competition with Turkey in Libya and the Mediterranean and its dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile dam project. They proclaimed that their efforts were shaping a ” new Middle East “.
But the internal situation in Al-Kadhimi remains dire. Thousands of protesters in Basra have protested the targeted killings of three leaders of the youth movement for political reform that has gripped Iraq since October last year. On August 22, the offices of the national parliament in Basra were burned. The activists have announced the creation of a political party that will continue its reform agenda in the national elections in June next year. They believe the killings are intended to subvert this initiative.
Al-Kadhimi has promised a full investigation into the killings and has even removed some local security officers, but no prosecutions have been started and the perpetrators have not been arrested. Without a political base, few believe that it can effect real change in the political order, which is based on ethnic and sectarian affiliations. Politicians linked to Iran dominate parliament, while militias linked to it retain power in the streets and continue to attack US targets.
So while Al-Kadhimi may want to make his country a bridge for regional cooperation, it is likely that, for now, it will remain a battleground for fierce national and regional superiority.
- Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair of International Studies at Symbiosis International University in Pune.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect the point of view of Arab News
