On Thursday, Ethiopia’s military said it was “at war” with the ruling party in the country’s northern Tigris region.
“Our country is in the throes of a war that was not anticipated. This war is shameful, it is stupid,” the AFP news agency reported.
This development increases the likelihood of further collapse of Ethiopia’s already fragile federal system and the advance of Eritrean forces.
Why now
The current phase of tensions in Tigre began in August when Abini’s government delayed scheduled elections because they said the risk of Kovid-19 was too high.
Tigre officials cried and held their own election in September, in which more than 20 million people turned out to vote.
In retaliation, the federal government withheld money from the TPLF leadership in Macaulay, promising to send it directly to local leaders instead. This has created a series of constant restructuring and rhetoric between the regional and federal governments that is constantly being built.
Foreign observers and diplomats are increasingly concerned that the situation could escalate significantly into Tigre and beyond.
But Abiya Ahmed did not receive the Nobel Peace Prize?
Yes he did. The Nobel Committee awarded Abi the prestigious prize for his role in ending the conflict with Eritrea and bringing about significant reforms in Ethiopia.
Ethiopia’s direct conflict with Eritrea was significantly lost on both sides from 1998 to 2000. But the two-year war led to a long and dangerous stalemate and a total stalemate in cooperation.
Once in power, Abi moved quickly to normalize relations with Eritrean President Isaiah Afwerki, accepting the International Commission’s ruling on the borders between the two states. Detente angered some in Tigre, who raised an atmosphere of conflict.
But Abby also took significant steps toward domestic reform. He lifted the state of emergency and released thousands of political prisoners (although he has since jailed some protesters). They have also stepped up to start the telecommunications industry and increase private investment.
But his promise to hold free and fair elections has been unfulfilled and political anger and violence are on the rise in the country.
Is stress limited to Tigre only?
The deterioration in the Tigris over the past few months has been part of a larger strain than Ethiopia’s peers.
The country is made up of 10 regions and two cities – with a significant amount of autonomy for the people, including the regional police and army. Due to the long conflict with Eritrea, the Tigris also have a large number of federal troops. Regional governments are largely divided by entrenched ethnic lines.
Abi came to power in 2018, promising to break up the divisions. He formed a national coalition called the Prosperity Party, but the TPLF refused to join because the new coalition shattered the TPLF’s dominance in government – a dominance that had lasted since the early 1990s.
Abiya’s political appeal, in part, was built on his campaign of “Medimar” or “Synergy” – a spirit of national unity, transcending regional and ethnic identities. Officials in Tigre and other regions have complained that Abiya was only trying to strengthen his power from the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.
And while there are still a significant number of people who believe in Ethiopian identity, while the Abina regime has been praised internationally, ethnic and political tensions in some parts of the country have seen significant expansion, often with fatal consequences.
What’s at stake?
For Africa’s second most populous country and Ethiopia’s more than 100 million citizens, especially those living in Tigris, this week’s events could intensify the sense of distrust for the federal government and prime minister. A stable Ethiopia is crucial for the resistant horn of the African region.
Ethiopia to join US Has received millions of dollars in aid and military aid and is an important ally of the U.S. in countering extremist groups in neighboring Somalia.
For now, the U.S., one of Abi’s main foreign allies, supports the prime minister’s stance on the TPLF’s allegations.
But Abijah’s real problem after coming to power is not losing friends abroad – he makes enemies at home.
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