Each year ESPN releases its future NFL power ratings, which are supposed to reveal how teams are shaping up over the next three years. Three years is a lifetime in today’s NFL and it’s a great reason why these power ratings can vary so much from year to year.
Last year, the best team in ESPN’s future power ranking was the Indianapolis Colts, believe it or not. There’s no way ESPN knew that not long after he released his roster, Andrew Luck would choose to retire.
On that list, ESPN placed the New England Patriots in second place, and once again, it’s a situation where the quarterback’s changes have dramatically changed the prospect of a roster and future prospects for the future. One team that hasn’t seen a big change from their ranking year after year is the Denver Broncos.
ESPN ranked Denver No. 22 last year, and this season, the Broncos now rank 24. You’ve read it right. ESPN has ranked Denver lower this year than it is right now last summer.
Before looking at why ESPN is leaning in that direction to move the Broncos forward, I’m going to talk about the network’s formula for these rankings. ESPN has what it calls a “panel of experts” to rank each team based on five categories.
Those categories are quarterback, non-quarterback roster, coaching, draft, and front office.
Each category is weighted in the final ranking with a list representing the highest percentage with 30% of the evaluation, and the draft and the main office represent the lowest with 15%, respectively. The coach and quarterback receive 20% of the final grade.
The Broncos came with a final rating of 72.3. ESPN ranked the Broncos in the individual categories as No. 16 overall (minus quarterback), No. 24 quarter, No. 28 coaching (last year coaching ranked 13th), draft No. 17 and front office No 21.
It is understandable how ESPN could get to some of these rankings, but others are so far.
ESPN made the expert panel give some reasons behind the rankings, but even those fall a little short. A great example is Louis Riddick, under the title of ‘greatest concern’, says this:
“John Elway is all inclusive [Drew] Lock, evidenced by the amount of speed and playability he added to the team through the draft in WR’s Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. The question is whether the offensive line, which ranks 24th in catches per pass attempt allowed in 2019, has been improved enough to allow Elway’s bet on Lock to be worthwhile. ”
What happens next to the Broncos? Don’t miss any news and analysis! Take a second and Sign up to receive our free newsletter and receive the latest Broncos news in your inbox daily!
The broncos to have shows that they are all included in Lock. In today’s NFL, teams that succeed with a young quarterback do exactly that. Kansas City already had a large core of players for Patrick Mahomes when he took office in 2018, and Baltimore last year did its best to build the offense around Lamar Jackson’s skill set and talent.
Riddick’s question about the Broncos’ offensive line is not unfounded, as many articles have been written about that unit’s struggles. Where it falls a bit short is his comment on the catch rate per pass attempt.
Drew Lock proved last season that one area where he proved to be elite was the ability to stay on his feet and avoid taking bags. He had a good feeling of pressure and read his readings faster than Joe Flacco or Brandon Allen, who preceded him in the center. A big part of what OC Pat Shurmur brings to the table is a quick-hit offensive system.
I also question the degree ESPN gave the Broncos for their 2020 project. ESPN gave no reason why the Denver draft class is ranked so low. If anything, since the immediate aftermath of the draft, ESPN’s comment on Denver’s run had been complementary.
The truth is, the Broncos were also praised and applauded across the NFL for their 2019 draft class, which is why ESPN rated them so low seems a bit wrong. If this was the 2018 offseason, I could understand a little more skepticism in this department, as the Broncos had a long streak of bad drafts.
The final ranking of the ESPN position that surprised me was that of the coaches. I can’t see how the Broncos go from the coaching staff from ranking No. 13 in 2019 to 28 in 2020.
The only significant change in the coaching staff was the replacement of Shurmur to replace Rich Scangarello in the offensive coordinator and Mike Shula to replace TC McCartney in QBs Coach. That should represent a huge improvement on the offensive side of the ball for any objective analyst.
ESPN may be questioning Vic Fangio’s long-term viability in Denver, but that hasn’t really changed from last season to the present. Denver’s coaching staff also did quite well in keeping the team focused and winning after making a 0-4 start last year, destroying almost all hope that the Broncos would have a playoff opportunity.
ESPN’s Field Yates pulled him out of the park with his analysis of the Broncos roster when he said this:
“There is a lot to like about the offensive core in Denver, as the tight end and receiving group are full of youth, speed and potential. Quarterback Drew Lock He did well in his five starts as a rookie last season and will play an integral part in Denver’s prognosis: if Lock consolidates his status as a quarterback for the present and the future, Denver will quickly rise in these ranks. “
As with most NFL rosters, it comes down primarily to the quarterback. The Broncos showed in 2016 that the roster can be filled to the brim with talent around the quarterback, but without a good one at the helm, the train will have trouble getting out of the station.
The Broncos did their best at Lock as the team’s future and, if it can prove to be just that, for this time of next year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Broncos in the top 10 on ESPN. I don’t blame ESPN for continuing without believing Lock is the guy.
A sample size of five games is too small for any quarterback to draw long-term bulletproof conclusions. The 2020 season will tell the story of the next five years for the Broncos.
Either Lock shoots himself and the Broncos compete for the Super Bowls and make ESPN and other national Doubting Thomas experts look bad, or they return to the drawing board and try to solve the quarterback’s dilemma once again.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
