Elections in 2020: Campaigns already preparing for nightmare scenarios

08/19/2020 Health


Millions of ballots are unlikely to be in the hands of election officials when the November 3 election closes, making it difficult – if not impossible – to quickly name the battle-hardened states that will decide as President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Pray for the White House in January 2021. While everything about the election season is muddy, the pandemic and the expected effect on the vote via mail make one thing clear: election day will almost certainly be in election week or even election month.

Chamber officials are already asking for patience, reminding the public that waiting for results does not mean everything is wrong. But even if a broad expectation of the race’s call is opened, it opens the door to potential chaos in the hours and days after the election, not to mention potentially long and politically biased challenges for the election – and after years of growing concerns about foreign mediation, room for doubt to grow over the integrity of American democracy itself.

“If we do not have a winner within 24 hours, there is a huge potential for a nationwide freak-out and for conspiracy theories to flourish, which can never be undone,” said Amanda Carpenter, a CNN contributor and former adviser to Texas GOP First Chamber Member Ted Cruz.

The pandemic election

That it all plays out against the backdrop of the worst public health crisis in a century, when millions of voters will be voting for the first time, has only reinforced the feeling that this year’s contest is more at risk of error and a disputed outcome.

A new CNN poll released Tuesday shows that nearly two-thirds of Americans – 64% – say they are at least somewhat apprehensive that changes to the voting rules are meant to make it safer to get a vote during the pandemic do not go far enough, while 59% are concerned, the changes will make it too easy for people to cast fraudulent votes. A large minority, 36%, say their confidence in the vote will be diminished if a winner cannot be determined on Election Night because it takes longer than normal to count.

Even though Trump considered this year’s award the ‘most rigged’ on record and preemptively suggested that a longer wait for results would be unacceptable, even though election night polls are always unofficial and often change when the final ballots are told.

Biden and his supporters have accused the president of deliberately trying to suppress the vote, as questioners are harassing him, in some cases by double digits, while his campaign has gathered a team of 600 lawyers across the country to help controlling moods. A senior Biden aide told CNN that the campaign “has made the largest voter protection operation ever carried out in a presidential cycle.”

“If we have learned one thing from the pandemic,” the assistant said, “it is that having one event plan is not enough. We have layers and layers and layers of plans for plans. Our programs are built with flexibility in. thoughts to deal with each situation. “

And Democrats have begun to gamble, at least in theory, on what it might look like if Trump loses and refuses office.

Recent efforts by federal lawmakers in U.S. cities have raised concerns about how far Trump and his administration, led by Attorney General Bill Barr, may go in preventing or intimidating voters into casting ballots – an idea considered foreign by a many Trump allies but seriously enough that at least one election integrity group has conducted exercises that encompass the scenario.

“What we are preparing for is if Donald Trump refuses to give in, and if he tries to steal these elections,” said Sean Eldridge, president of Stand Up America, a liberal advocacy group that prepares to mobilize people for the election results. “We are concerned not only about ensuring that millions of Americans can vote safely this year, we are concerned about what will happen on election day and in the days thereafter.”

‘The courts need to be better prepared’

The president has so far refused to explicitly state that he will accept the results of the election, saying it would be foolish to confirm in advance an outcome he has already begun to question. “I have to see,” Trump said in an interview last month when asked if he would accept the election results. “No, I will not just say yes. I will not say no and I have not done so lately.”
In office, Trump routinely referred to his 2016 victory as rigged because he lost the popular vote, and he created a panel – eventually disbanded – to investigate baseless claims of widespread voter fraud in that race. Now, the Trump campaign has been repaid for this cause, recruiting pollsters in what officials say is an attempt to ensure Democrats do not change the voting rules to open the door to vote fraud in November.

“Democrats are working on rape integrity measuring one state at a time, and there is no question that they will continue their shenanigans from now until November and beyond,” said Matthew Morgan, the Trump campaign’s attorney general. “The Trump campaign is fighting to ensure that every valid vote in America counts – once and for all.”

There have already been various legal battles between the parties across the country over voting, in response to states making changes to their voting-by-post rules, according to when a vote can be postmarked or delivered , and even how states use dropboxes to collect ballots. Democrats accuse Trump and the Republican National Committee of trying to suppress the vote by restricting access to help Trump win reelection.

The lawsuits over access to voting rights may just be a prelude to the potential legal challenges after election day on November 3, especially if some swing states turn into a nail-biter.

“The courts need to be better prepared because they will be completed after the November election,” predicted former Republican National Committee official Mike Shields. “I think both sides will have lawyers ready to challenge results that do not go their way.”

At a congressional meeting last month, Barr suggested that a full by-election would “substantially increase the risk of fraud”, although he did not provide evidence when he pressed on how foreign governments would produce false votes, an accusation he and the President have levels.

“No, I do not, but I have sociable understanding,” Barr said when asked if he had evidence.

Count ballots after election day

Trump and his Republican allies have targeted post-in-votes, especially in states that have adopted universal vote-by-mail rules that send votes to all registered voters. There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in multiple states, red and blue, who have conducted most of their elections for years by mail under this system, including Utah, Oregon and Colorado.
But states expect exponentially more voters to use absentee ballots this year because of the pandemic, including some sending votes as absentee ballots to all registered voters for the first time. Many states accept ballots postmarked on election day that arrive later, and some start not counting their posted votes until the election is close. It all adds up to possible delays certifying the results that already appeared during the primaries – it took more than a week for winners to declare in recent congressional primary competitions in New York and Kentucky.

“In states that have a history of many post-ballot papers, they will be able to process these ballots very quickly and will have results fairly quickly,” said David Becker, founder of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research. “But in states that are not accustomed to counting a lot of postal votes, states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin may, it may take a while to process all those votes properly and ensure that the election results are final. “

The recent cuts to postal service operations by Postmaster General Louis DeJoy – a major Trump donor – have raised additional concerns that sent votes will be delayed for days, or that votes will be sent well in advance if not timely in states where ‘ t they must be received by election day. DeJoy has been called in to testify in the coming days before both the House and House of Commons, while a group of state attorneys is suing in federal court to challenge recent USPS operational changes.

DeJoy said in a statement on Tuesday that he would postpone the changes until after the election “to prevent even the appearance of any influence on election post.”

If election results remain in the air days after election day, it creates a potential recipe for chaos. Democrats are particularly worried that Trump will declare victory, especially if he is leading the way when the sun rises on Wednesday, November 4, before millions of mail-in votes have been counted. In a CNN poll, a majority of Biden voters said they would prefer to vote by mail, while roughly two-thirds of Trump supporters said they would rather vote in person on election day.

In addition to the recent streak of Trump’s false claims that voting for mail-in is fraught with fraud and will result in a “rigged” election, he has doubts about mail in balloting counted after election day. At the 2018 Florida Senate contest in Florida, he said the state “should go with Election Night” results when then-Democratic sen. Bill Nelson narrowed the gap against his challenger, Republican Rick Scott, who eventually got priority. And he tweeted “Call for a new election?” when Democrat Kyrsten Sinema pulled Republican Martha McSally into Arizona after McSally took the lead at Election Night.

Becker said a delayed election result should not be seen as a sign of fraud or problems – but rather as one that shows the system is working.

“Be patient, it could take extra time this year. That does not mean everything is wrong, it actually means the opposite – it means that election officials are making sure to get this right,” he said. “It’s more important to get it right than to get it fast.”

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