Three states with very different electoral profiles will hold primary elections on Tuesday: Alabama, Maine and Texas.
The contests include a Republican Senate primary in Alabama in which President Trump pursues personal revenge; a Democratic primary for the Senate in Maine, whose winner will face the only New England Republican in Congress; and the second round in Texas for the Democratic Senate nomination and two Texas House districts expected to be scrapped in November.
Most of the ballot boxes in all three states will close at 8 pm ET. Some early gains are likely to come soon after that, but full results will take longer.
This is what you should observe:
The Alabama primary could end Jeff Sessions’ political career.
In any other year, under any other president, Jeff Sessions is the type of Republican who would have a clear shot at winning a Senate seat in Alabama. He is experienced and very conservative and has built goodwill with voters for decades in public office. But a runoff election Tuesday with Tommy Tuberville, a former college football coach and newcomer to politics, could be the end of a career in Republican politics that started when Sessions was still in college, and when most of Alabama voted Democrat.
Like most Republican primary contests, this one will be seen as proof of how strongly Mr. Trump retains control of his main supporters. He has endorsed Mr. Tuberville and repeatedly angrily attacked Mr. Sessions, the former attorney general whose recusal from an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election helped fuel the appointment of Robert S. Mueller III as special adviser. .
Mr. Sessions has always been the underdog. In the first round of voting in early March, he finished behind Mr. Tuberville, but by less than two percentage points. (Other candidates were in the race and nobody received an absolute majority, which forced a second electoral round). And Tuesday’s results will reveal in part whether Trump’s barrage of insults and pleas to Alabamians to reject his former ally – “mentally unqualified” and “a disaster that has disappointed us all” are just two of the biggest blows Recent: They have helped make Sessions seem like a big risk to voters. Public and private surveys have shown Mr. Tuberville with a comfortable lead.
Or a loss to Sessions could be something else entirely: Voters looking for a new kind of leadership in Washington and hesitant to send back a 73-year-old man they’ve already elected to the same Senate seat. times.
Alabama voters have rejected Trump’s advice before. Twice.
Alabama is definitely Trump’s country. And Mr. Tuberville has certainly benefited from the President’s numerous supports. But Alabama voters also have a mind of their own when it comes to choosing senators. In fact, the only reason Mr. Sessions is running is because Mr. Trump’s last two endorsements didn’t work the way he expected.
After Mr. Sessions was confirmed as attorney general in 2017 and left the seat in the Senate, he was filled by Luther Strange, a former state attorney general who was appointed by the governor. Trump endorsed Strange when he had to run for reelection later that year, viewing him as a loyal soldier and an ally in the Senate.
But a populist backlash against Strange, who faced ethical questions in Alabama about how he had earned the Senate nomination, allowed Roy S. Moore to win the Republican nomination. Then Trump endorsed Moore, a former Alabama Supreme Court judge who gained national notoriety after placing a massive stone replica of the Ten Commandments in the state court building.
Trump maintained his endorsement even after several women stepped forward to accuse Moore of petting and harassing them as teens and he was a prominent local attorney.
Moore lost the race after other Republicans, especially the state’s chief senator, Richard Shelby, said he was unable to vote for the former judge.
All eyes will be on Doug Jones.
Mr. Moore’s scandal gave Alabama its first Democratic senator in a generation: Doug Jones. And after Tuesday, when your opponent is determined, your career will have a new image. Jones is in the most difficult position of any Senate Democrat for reelection this year. In 2016, Trump led Alabama by nearly 30 points, making it difficult for any Democrat to perform well across the state, even if the president’s popularity continues to decline.
Mr. Jones’ victory in 2017 was viewed generally not as evidence of a resurgent Democratic Party in a deep red state, but rather as a reflection of how bearable Mr. Moore was once allegations of abuse emerged sexual.
Jones, the only Democrat representing the Deep South in the Senate, has tried to appear deliberate and fair while balancing his personal opposition to the President with the sentiments of the majority of his constituents. But his record, which includes a vote to remove Trump from office after his impeachment, will be difficult to sell for many voters.
Texas voters will elect a Democratic Senate candidate, and House seats are available.
In December, the campaign arm of the Senate Democrats entered the Texas primaries, backing MJ Hegar over a candidate field. Now, Ms. Hegar, a former Air Force helicopter pilot who narrowly lost a nomination for the House in 2018, faces a runoff against Royce West, a state legislator vying to become the first black senator from Texas.
The winner will face Senator John Cornyn, a three-term incumbent who is the second Republican in the Senate and will be a big favorite in the general election.
We’ll also see two congressional runoffs in Texas: one for Republicans in District 22 and one for Democrats in District 24. Both seats have been completely red in the past, but are expected to be competitive in November, because Republican headlines are withdrawing.
District 22, which is located in the Houston area and is represented by Congressman Pete Olson, is home to a bitter race between Troy Nehls, the Fort Bend County Sheriff and Kathaleen Wall, a conservative activist. Nehls was way ahead of Wall on the first lap in March, but failed to reach the 50 percent threshold necessary to avoid a second lap.
Ms. Wall has been running ads accusing Mr. Nehls of failing to combat human trafficking in Fort Bend County, which advocacy groups say is a serious problem there. Nehls called the accusation “an absolute lie.”
The winner will face Democratic nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni, who narrowly lost to Olson in 2018.
In District 24, a suburban stretch between Dallas and Fort Worth that is represented by Congressman Kenny Marchant, the Democratic candidates are Kim Olson, an Air Force veteran, and Candace Valenzuela, a former school board member who would be the first afro-latina. Member of Congress.
Olson, who ran for Texas Agriculture Commissioner in 2018, has announced her 25 years of military service and the fact that she was part of the first generation of female fighter pilots. Ms. Valenzuela, by contrast, has emphasized her personal connections to the district and her difficult childhood; She grew up poor and became homeless after her mother left an abusive relationship.
Ms. Olson finished more than 10 percentage points ahead in the first round of voting in March, but supporters of Ms. Valenzuela, which include Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Sweater; the former housing secretary Julián Castro; and Rep. John Lewis of Georgia: I think the career has changed.
The winner will face Republican nominee Beth Van Duyne, former mayor of Irving, Texas.
Who will be the Democrat to compete against Susan Collins in Maine?
In the state’s Democratic primary for the Senate, Sara Gideon, the speaker of the State House of Representatives, is seen as the favorite between two progressive challengers, Betsy Sweet, a lobbyist, and Bre Kidman, an attorney. The race has attracted intense national focus as the winner will face Senator Susan Collins, who has become a vilified figure among national Democrats.
Although Ms. Collins is moderate in her party and has long enjoyed bipartisan support for Maine’s representation in the Senate since 1997, her reluctance to strongly reject Mr. Trump has caused her approval ratings to plummet. at home. Her vote to confirm Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh before the Supreme Court further angered the Liberals.
Ms. Gideon has already raised $ 23 million, a record amount for a career in Maine, thanks to national donors who see her as the key to a Democratic Senate inauguration. Ms. Gideon has held positions in healthcare and the environment online with former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the alleged Democratic candidate. Her two rivals, who advocate more radical policies like “Medicare for All,” have struggled to raise money.
Recent surveys have shown that Mrs. Gideon has a close advantage over Mrs. Collins.
Reid J. Epstein contributed reporting.
