President Rodrigo Duterte will deliver his annual speech in the Philippines on Monday, after having consolidated his power with firm control over Congress and a majority in the Supreme Court, but under increasing pressure on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
With 23 months remaining of his six-year term, Duterte has been embroiled in a national emergency.
Analysts say it is trying to make up for its lack of a clear policy to address the health and economic crisis caused by the pandemic, drawing on the same law enforcement approach it exercised with deadly consequences in its drug war.
But this time, the “enemy” remains invisible, affecting more than 80,000 people and leaving almost 2,000 dead until Sunday. Unemployment has risen to 17.5 percent and the country of 100 million may be facing its worst recession in 35 years.
“This is, I think, one of the most important state of the nation discourses of any Philippine president, mainly because this is not just an economic crisis, it is a crisis that can potentially change the way we live,” said Jean Encinas Franco , associate professor of political science at the University of the Philippines.
“We need to hear the real state of the nation, and how it will move this nation forward after the pandemic,” Franco told Al Jazeera.
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Duterte will begin turning in his address in the House of Representatives at 4pm local time (08:00 GMT) in an event reduced to just 50 people as a result of the coronavirus. However, the venue could still be changed in the last few minutes, after reports that some of the guests invited to test positive for the coronavirus.
Philippine Vice President Leni Robredo, who is a member of the opposition, says Filipinos want to hear from the president about his “real plan” to tackle the pandemic.
“We have been asking questions for a long time because what we have learned from their weekly meetings seems incomplete. Hopefully it will be fully presented tomorrow,” Robredo said during his weekly radio show. The president and vice president are elected separately in the Philippines.
Previously, Harry Roque, the president’s spokesman, had promised that Duterte would present a detailed roadmap for recovery, including how to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease, also known as COVID-10.
There have also been reports that Duterte could declare another expanded blockade if the number of cases reaches 85,000 by the end of this week.
On Monday, the secretary of Presidential Communications, Andanar, added that the president’s speech “will be one full of optimism and hope.” He added that the government “has done enough within its means.”
# SONA2020 pic.twitter.com/Vuxvf7RAdf
– Jamela Alindogan (@jamelaaisha) July 27, 2020
De facto martial law
Political analyst and newspaper columnist Antonio J Montalvan II, who is from the Mindanao president’s political stronghold, says the administration’s response has been poor.Since the health emergency it first emerged in early February.
Instead, Montalvan says, Duterte has seized the opportunity presented by the epidemic to expand its powers without offering a clear “epidemiological response” to help contain the spread of the coronavirus.
During the second week of March, Duterte declared a “national health emergency” and ordered a closure that covered half of the country’s population. He also called for special powers of Congress to distribute a financial stimulus package to families and individuals, and obtain medical equipment abroad.
At the same time, police were deployed across the country to strictly implement the shutdown order, which initially left tens of thousands of people stranded at transportation hubs in Metro Manila. In response to reports of people who violated the shutdown orders, Duterte also ordered the police to “shoot” them.
“He successfully created de facto martial law without the declaration, deftly containing the pandemic with a military solution,” Montalvan said.
This is Duterte’s SONA, where I least expect him. The bankruptcy of his administration’s ideas for dealing with the COVID-19 crisis made him a lame president early in the 2022 presidential election.
READ the complete statement here: https://t.co/vfTFR5FdXA pic.twitter.com/xbCa6yKk5Y
– Leila de Lima (@SenLeiladeLima) July 26, 2020
“With the military solution, dissent became impossible. Congress was controlled by its puppets,” he added.
In the central island province of Cebu, for example, Montalvan says health workers were deployed to care for critics of the social networks of the governor, an ally of Duterte, rather than assist in the effort to track down Contacts to locate people who could have been exposed to COVID-19.
“No wonder our numbers are high,” he said, as warning that the president was still trying to renew the constitution amid the pandemic.
‘Unprepared’
Franco, the political scientist at the University of the Philippines, said part of the problem with the Duterte administration is the president’s unwillingness to admit that he was not prepared to deal with the health emergency.
“It is a problem he was never exposed to when he was still mayor. When he speaks, he constantly admitted that he knows nothing about this pandemic, because he is not a doctor. But it is not necessary for him to do so.” being a doctor to give a sense of direction, “Franco said, referring to Duterte’s previous experience as mayor of the city of Davao.
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At the start of the pandemic, Duterte was summoned during a cabinet meeting threatening to “slap” the coronavirus should he see it. Recently, he was also quoted as saying that face masks can be reused using gasoline as a disinfectant.
“He wants to look so tough,” said Franco. “But you can’t really admit that this isn’t something I wasn’t prepared for. You can’t admit it.”
While many other countries also faced the aftermath of the pandemic, it is clear that Duterte “failed” his response, Franco added.
The delay in implementing an early ban on flights from China was an obvious example of tThe president’s half-hearted approach to containing the virus, he said.
Franco said a recent survey, which showed that more than 80 percent of Filipino respondents were concerned about their situation amid the pandemic, was a reflection of the deficiencies of the Duterte administration.
Push for constitutional change
However, the growing frustration among the public towards the President has not diminished his efforts to carry out his political agenda.
Earlier this month, Duterte enacted new anti-terrorism legislation, which seeks to expand police powers for warrantless arrests and lengthy detentions against those suspected of “terrorist” activities.
Legal experts and activists have warned that the new law could be used to attack dissidents. Several groups have petitioned the Supreme Court to invalidate the new law.
At the same time, the Duterte administration also successfully shut down the country’s largest television network, ABS-CBN. He has also lobbied for the prosecution of prominent journalist Maria Ressa, director of the independent news website Rappler, who has been reporting on the president’s war on drugs.
Human rights groups and the opposition have warned that the controversial anti-terrorism law could be used to silence dissent in the country and persecute political activists. [File: Rolex dela Pena/EPA]
Now, the administration has turned its attention to the president’s long-standing plan to change the constitution, paving the way for the lifting of the term limits of politicians allied with Duterte. It could also allow Duterte to run for another term, which is prohibited in the current constitution.
In a statement sent to Al Jazeera, Cristina Palabay, secretary general of the activist group Karapatan (Rights), warned against the plan to change the letter, saying it only serves the “militaristic” and “oligarchic” interests of the president and his allies.
Palabay and his group have pledged to protest “online and on the ground” on Monday amid threats of possible arrests, following police warnings against mass gatherings due to pandemic restrictions.
Manila Police Confiscate Anti-Terrorist Protest Materials From Mass Public Inside Quiapo Church | via @jeffcanoy pic.twitter.com/N9vxVmmRx5
– ABS-CBN news channel (@ANCALERTS) July 27, 2020
Before Duterte’s speech, police officers were captured on video seizing protest materials during a Catholic service inside a church in Manila.
Franco, however, has some doubts that Duterte and his allies can change the 1987 constitution before its terms expire in June 2022.
Not only is the plan “deaf” as it is being pushed amid the pandemic, he said, but the president is also running out of time to pass it to Congress, despite his supermajority.
“If you look at the proposed statute changes in the past,” Franco said, “when the end of the president’s term approaches, it really loses its appeal.”
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