It’s officially qualifying season, and that means it’s time to get mad.
Normally, I don’t really participate in the outrage. I just tell them the news and let them go crazy in the comments section. I’ve been in these parts long enough to know that as much as I like to think I know how the season will play out, no one really knows. And I, like all Lions fans, once looked at the upcoming season with bright eyes and high hopes only to be disappointed in November. I don’t need to go through another low season where we get outraged [insert offending writer] in July only to be proven right in December.
But if there’s one thing I feel pretty sure about the Detroit Lions 2020, it’s that their offensive weapons look pretty good. With Kenny Golladay leaving a year-long career and his supportive and productive cast of Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola returning, the Lions look comfortable with wide receiver. Add a pick of the top 10 at TJ Hockenson entering his sophomore year, which tends to be a watershed year for the young tight ends, plus the second runner off the draft board this spring, and this is clearly at less, a unit above average.
So when I clicked on Bill Barnwell’s article that classified the weapons of the 32 teams, I said jokingly under my breath
“If the Lions are not in the top 10, I will be mad. ”
The Detroit Lions were not in Barnwell’s top 10.
They weren’t in their top 20 either.
Barnwell ranked the Lions 25th, or eighth worst in the NFL.
Look, I’m not one to like Barnwell. In fact, I really like it. He is very progressive when it comes to analysis, and when he gives his opinion, he generally has a solid evidence base and statistical support for his arguments. Also, when it comes to ranking things like this, you’re going to make a mistake or overlook some players. It is an impossible task.
But, still, this makes little sense.
Part of the problem is with Barnwell’s methods. He claims at the top that he will place more emphasis on top-level talent than depth. It takes into account the team’s five main weapons, regardless of their position, and provides bonuses for the players who are the best at their position. With a methodology like that, it’s easy to justify putting the Packers (19) over the Lions. They have Aaron Jones and Davante Adams, who are probably in the top 10 at their position. But would anyone really prefer Adams-Jones-Devin Funchess-Allen Lazard-AJ Dillon to Golladay-Jones Jr.-Hockenson-D’Andre Swift-Amendola? It would be difficult for me to justify that.
Depth is as important as the power of the stars, and if you don’t believe me, come back to me three months after the season.
But let’s get into Barnwell’s specific criticism of Detroit’s weapons.
“They will also expect a return from Marvin Jones, who went from averaging 18 yards per catch in 2017 to 12.6 last season,” writes Barnwell.
This looks like a bit of statistical cherry picking. Jones caught 62 passes last year, more than any other season with the Lions despite only playing in 13 games. Your drop in yards per reception could simply be a difference in usage. The Lions had a different coordinator in 2019 and their average depth of target (aDOT) went from 14.6 in 2018 to 13.1 in 2019. Framing that as a possible sign of decline is misleading.
Don’t get me wrong, at 30 years old Jones Jr. probably doesn’t have many great years left, but the man made nine touchdowns last year, which were just two fewer than the league leader. He can still play.
Elsewhere, he admits it’s too early to worry about Hockenson’s mild rookie year, but he calls it “a lost season,” which I honestly don’t even know what that means. Hockenson gained NFL experience, probably felt a little humiliated, and will have to grow in Year 2 like almost any other tight end in NFL history.
He ignores the draft Swift selection, framing that Kerryon Johnson is ready rather than adding another weapon to the field. And while I’m not extremely high on Amendola, it probably deserved a passing mention here, as it almost topped the top 50 in receiving yards last year (678, 53).
Injuries were also a common theme in his criticism of the Lions. In the meantime, let’s take a look at the rest of the article.
Giants (Ranked 7):
“If everyone could get on the field at the same time, the Giants would be something to worry about opposing defenses.”
Eagles (Ranked 10):
Jackson missed most of 2019 with a central injury, and his future with the team is uncertain after he posted anti-Semitic messages on social media. Jeffery suffered a Lisfranc injury in December and does not have a schedule to return. Arcega-Whiteside was a rookie disaster, averaging just 0.58 yards per road while dealing with injuries and making mental errors. Goodwin has missed 12 games in the past two seasons with various injuries and personal absences.
For some reason, all of these injury concerns were simply ignored.
I’ll admit that my optimism about the Lions’ weapons has a fair amount of faith attached to it. There’s no guarantee Hockenson will jump that year 2, and we haven’t seen Swift put on the Lions uniform yet. But the Lions receiving body does not require much faith to see its value. Only one other team in the NFL had three receivers in at least 678 yards last season (Falcons). To put things like that under teams like New England (Sony Michel, Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu, N’Keal Harry and … Devin Asiasi?) And Minnesota (Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr.) seems too dismissive.
But maybe I’m falling into the off-season optimism trap again.
