ALLEN PARK – Yet another publication has crowned the Detroit Lions as the most likely team to go from worst-to-first this season. Pro Football Focus did that in February, and now Football Outsiders is going with the Lions as their favorite to turn everything around for the second year in a row.
Football Outsiders even has the Lions as the most likely team to win the NFC North. And not just when considering the latest farm teams from last year. The Lions have never won the NFC North and have not won a division title since winning the NFC Central in 1993. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have recently won the Detroit division, and have not been there since 2002.
While jumping from last place to a division title sounds like a daunting task, at least one team has accomplished this feat in 16 of the previous 18 seasons. This ranking of Football Outsiders can be found on ESPN + with a subscription.
Football Outsiders have compiled its rankings by simulating the season 25,000 times and predicting the DVOA of each team (defense-adjusted value above average) on offense, defense and special teams. Variables include recent player COVID opt-outs, performances from the last three seasons, and possible coaching and staff changes.
The simulations resulted in the Lions coming out with a 27.5% chance of winning the NFC North for the first time, and a 42.9% chance of making the extended playoff field. Detroit beat the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars to claim the top spot.
Related: Pro Football Focus ranks Detroit Lions as probably worst team | ESPN analyst tackles Lions QB Matthew Stafford as MVP in early predictions for 2020 season
“Detroit had two different teams last year: with and without Matthew Stafford at quarterback,” the Detroit section read. ‘In the eight games that Stafford started, the Lions finished 3-4-1. In the eight games after Stafford lost to the season with a back injury, the Lions were 0-8. It is reasonable to assume that the Lions will be closer to that first team with Stafford back in 2020.
“This does not mean we are planning a great season for the Lions. Our average projection for the Lions has them as a very average team. We are high on the Lions because our average projections have each team in the NFC North as a very average team. All four teams win the division somewhere between 23% and 27% of our simulations. ”
The rankings fall back on Stafford’s return to form as one of the best quarterbacks in the league when he’s on the field. Stafford threw the deep ball more often and better than ever into first-year offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell’s system, and is good to go after a false-positive scare and early offseason.
His average depth per goal jumped from 7.1 to 11.4 yards between 2018 and 2019. Before falling with his third back injury in a calendar year, Stafford had the sixth-best QB rating in the NFL. His 106.0 rating also represented a career high. In terms of DVOA, Stafford was the fourth most valuable quarterback behind only Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.
Now Stafford is back with every receiver who took a pass from him last season. Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola formed one of the more productive receiving trios in the league. Golladay led the league with 11 touchdown jokes last season, and seven of those from Stafford caught through the first eight games. Jones finished the year with nine touchdowns, picking up six of those from Stafford.
It is also not just about those recipients. The Lions spent a second round on the return run of D’Andre Swift (Georgia), the fifth round on receiver Quintez Cephus (Wisconsin), and two other picks on guards Logan Stenberg (Kentucky) and Jonah Jackson (Ohio State). TJ Hockenson and Jesse James are back after an early year in the tight end room despite significant investments. Hockenson set the new league standard for rookie tight ends allowing them to make their debut, but returned to earth before an ankle injury ended his season. James, on the other hand, failed to find a constant role in the crime.
All of this leads one to believe that Detroit’s offense has a chance to be very good this season, and national outlets seem to agree based on how everything looks on paper. The Lions begin practice practice on Aug. 17, with the opener against the Chicago Bears set for Sept. 13. At Ford Field.
Detroit Lions Training Camp Preview Series:
Running rain | Broad receivers | Offensive line | Tight agrees | Quarterbacks | Defensive line | Secondary | Linebackers
