This offseason, the most unusual of all seasons, produced a new metric.
That’s right, friends. A new statistic emerged from the quarantine that could finally separate the offensive line game from the runner: expected yards per carry.
Like expected completion percentage and expected catch rate, expected yards per carry will help isolate an offensive player’s individual performance, in this case, the ball carrier, from surrounding circumstances, including effectiveness of your blockers. For those of us who have spent any amount of time lined up on or alongside soccer, this is joyous news. Considering defensive lineup, number of defenders in the box versus number of blockers, and other key factors, we now have a metric that will help provide quantitative evidence of the effectiveness of an offensive line separate from rushing yard totals.
Sure, it still sounds like the runner is tied to the metric, but it also reflects the performance of run blockers on a single play, because it tells you how many yards the ball carrier should They have won based on the situation around them on the field, including the linemen’s position relative to the defenders. Whether the ball carrier reaches, exceeds, or fails to reach the xYPC mark helps reveal how effectively their role plays in the symbiotic relationship between offensive linemen and runners, while the brand itself informs us of the effectiveness of its cast. support.
For example: Adrian Peterson’s expected yard mark per carry was 4, which means, in part, that Washington’s offensive line was blocked well enough for Peterson to pick up 4 yards per attempt. Peterson averaged 4.3 yards per carry in actual yards, which is 0.3 yards more per carry than expected, which means he accomplished a little more than expected. Of his 898 rushing yards (on 211 carries), 64 were earned for his above expectations achievement (yards above expectations, or RYOE).
By contrast, Devonta Freeman was the worst running back in the NFL last year (among those with a minimum of 150 carries) in RYOE, posting a league low of -1.18 RYOE per run. Freeman’s xYPC (expected yards per carry) was 4.7, thanks in part to the effectiveness of the Atlanta blockers in front of him, but he only gained 3.6 yards per carry, suggesting that his problems were not the fault of the offensive line. . (Notably, the Falcons produced a 4.44 xYPC for all runners, which was the fourth-best mark in the league.)
As for the replacement of Freeman 2020, in Atlanta, Todd Gurley? Take your eyes away. His RYOE rating of -0.67 for the Rams was the third-worst in the entire NFL last season, with only Peyton Barber standing between Gurley and Freeman at the bottom. The Falcons might not see much improvement on the ground if these numbers are valid in 2020.
And so that we are clear about these new acronyms for which you are about to form new neural pathways, here is a glossary:
- YPC: Yards per carry
- xYPC: Expected yards per carry (the benchmark metric for blocking effectiveness)
- ERY Yards by ground expected (total for season)
- RYOE Rushed yards above expectations
- RYOE for attempt: Rushed yards above expectations per attempt
So do you understand how this works now? Okay. Let’s make a list of the top 10 runners of 2019 based on performance relative to expected yards per carry. Be sure to loosen those thumbs up so you don’t twist one while tweeting angrily.
