Democrats say Joe Biden
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“We are running against a guy who cares deeply about size and numbers,” said a Democratic strategist. “The best way to tell him to go home is with a resounding defeat … That is the only language he understands.”
Another Democratic strategist, Joel Payne, put it this way: “You don’t want a shriek if nothing else because you want a government mandate.”
A series of recent polls have indicated that Biden has a healthy double-digit national lead over Trump, and several of the polls have also pointed to close races in states like Texas and Georgia, where Republican presidential candidates in recent years have trusted victory.
A Fox News poll released last week found Biden at one point, 45 percent to 44 percent, above Trump in Texas. Another poll conducted by the network found Trump behind Biden between 47 and 45 percent in Georgia.
Ohio and Iowa are two other more traditional swing states that earlier this year seemed like solid territory for Trump. Now Biden looks like he can compete in both.
In Arizona, which no Democratic presidential candidate has won since 1996, Biden won 46 percent in a Fox News poll compared to 42 percent for Trump.
Arizona is one of six decisive states that both campaigns are watching closely. The other five are Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
“When trustworthy polls make you tie or win in Texas, you expand the map well beyond the six ‘battlefield’ states,” said Democratic strategist Christy Setzer. “And Biden’s camp shouldn’t be startled by playing it safe.”
While the polls are good signs for Biden, other Democrats cautioned against getting big for the sake of being big. They say that all Biden needs to do is find the path of least resistance to reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency.
However, Michael Halle, who helped run Hillary clinton
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“The numbers are pretty staggering,” said Halle, who also served as a senior adviser to the former Democratic presidential candidate. Pete Buttigieg
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At the same time, he said the goal should always be “to have an eye on the easiest way to get to 270.”
“Yes, there are shiny objects,” added Halle. “But you still want to keep the focus at 270 and the states that bring it to 270.”
Halle said that Biden should work to give 270 electoral votes multiple paths so that if October comes and his fortune looks better in Arizona than in Wisconsin, he can focus on Sun Belt state.
In 2012, President Obama’s campaign saw the potential to add states like Georgia to its ledger when they saw favorable polls. They ended up focusing their resources on Virginia instead.
In 2016 Clinton saw an opportunity to win Arizona and deployed the best substitutes as Michelle Obama
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In a call to reporters last month, Biden’s campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said the campaign sees Arizona, Georgia and Texas as battlegrounds that can compete and win. She said Arizona in particular is a state where the campaign feels safe.
“This is something that we are very, very focused on,” O’Malley Dillon said at the time. “We believe there will be an enlarged map in 2020. We believe there will be battlefield states that have never before been battlefield states.”
A source close to the Biden campaign also told The Hill that Georgia is more like a state they could also lead in November.
Biden’s campaign announced earlier this month that it would launch a $ 15 million ad purchase in battlefield states, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina, where the campaign has noticed a move in its direction. .
The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Payne, who served as director of paid media and advertising in Africa for Clinton’s 2016 campaign, said more than anything that the Biden campaign needs to ensure it has the infrastructure in the states where they compete.
A state like Nevada may have more infrastructure and organization for Democrats to win than a state like Texas, he said.
“You have to focus on what it takes to win,” he said. “That does not mean that you are not ambitious. You are only taking measured risks. If you’re the Biden campaign, you’re not counting on Arizona, but it would be nice to have it. ”
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