US coronavirus deaths are projected to reach more than 220,000 in early November, as many states continue to report an increase in new cases and hospitalizations.
The University of Washington Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME) estimates 224,089 COVID-19 deaths as of November 1, which is approximately 90,000 more than the current number of deaths in the U.S.
“We can now see the projected path of the epidemic into the fall, and many states are expected to experience significant increases in cases and deaths in September and October,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said last Tuesday.
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Medical workers bring a patient to the Northbridge Healthcare Center in Bridgeport, Connecticut, on April 22, 2020. (AP Photo / Frank Franklin II)
However, the IHME says that if 95 percent of Americans wore masks when leaving their homes, the number of projected deaths would drop by more than 40,000.
“We have all come to recognize that wearing masks can substantially reduce virus transmission,” added Murray. “The masks mandates delay the need to re-impose company closings and have tremendous economic benefits. Furthermore, those who reject the masks are putting their lives, their families, their friends and their communities at risk.”
The new death toll rose nearly 20,000 from its previous estimate on July 7, which it attributed to a host of new infections and hospitalizations, likely to lead to more deaths from the virus.
The IHME is also noticing decreased mobility in some states as infections increase, which could limit the spread of the virus.
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“The United States did not experience a true end to the first wave of the pandemic,” said Murray. “This will not prevent us from a second increase in the fall, which will particularly affect states that currently have high levels of infections.”
The new projection does not include New Hampshire due to model changes and will be updated as soon as those issues are resolved, the IHME said.
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As of Wednesday morning, all 50 states plus the District of Columbia have reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, counting more than 3,431,574 illnesses and at least 136,466 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins data.
