As millions of Americans prepare to vote in November, and in many cases, state and local primaries and elections also during the summer, many people are talking about voting by mail. It’s a way to protect the integrity of the country’s voting system and limit potential exposure to the coronavirus, which continues to spread widely in the U.S.
I am a political scientist and I am part of a working group of the National Academy of Public Administration that offers recommendations to guarantee voter participation, as well as public confidence in the electoral process and the outcome during this coronavirus pandemic. To meet that goal, our work has found that state and local governments will need to make significant adjustments to their voting systems this year, changes that will likely require new federal funding.
Our recommendations, which include ways to reduce the health risks of in-person voting, as well as expand access and facilitate the mail-in voting process, are based on a comprehensive review of the evidence.
Some critics, including President Donald Trump, have questioned the integrity of postal voting, even though some of them voted by mail in the past. Conservative groups are suing to limit voting by mail, and some federal judges appear reluctant to defend voter rights if that means intervening in decisions at the state level. The president’s re-election campaign is suing to block voting by mail while pushing his sponsors to be ready to vote by mail.
The evidence we review finds that voting by mail is seldom subject to fraud, does not give one political party an advantage over another, and indeed can inspire public confidence in the voting process, if done correctly.
When fraud occurs, election administrators identify it and take action, correcting election statements and prosecuting those responsible. That’s what happened in North Carolina in 2018, when a Republican political activist paid others to collect incomplete absentee ballots so they could be completed to vote for the Republican candidate. The activist was arrested, charged and convicted, and the entire election was invalidated and resubmitted.
But general electoral fraud is rare.
A database of voter fraud reporting maintained by the conservative Heritage Foundation reports approximately 1,200 voter fraud allegations, resulting in 1,100 criminal convictions of voter fraud since 2000.
Of these, only 204 indictments and 143 convictions included mail ballots. That’s a small fraction of the approximately 250 million ballots mailed in during those two decades. Also, problems are extremely rare in states that rely primarily on mail voting.
Of course, any voting system must be protected from fraud. Election officials are already doing so, including prosecuting fraud attempts.
Allowing people to vote by mail does not give one party an advantage over the other, either in terms of the party members voting or the outcome of the election.
That’s the finding of several recent studies, confirming what previous research had found.
As early as 2001, it was discovered that the Oregon vote-by-mail system does not disproportionately mobilize or discourage voting by Democrats or Republicans. In 2008, a study found little difference between Democratic and Republican voters in Los Angeles County, in terms of who voted by absentee vote or who was disqualified.
A recent poll found that people of all political stripes who are concerned about supporting the coronavirus pandemic allow everyone to vote by mail.
There’s a problem with voting by mail, but it’s a problem with voting in general: A 2019 Gallup poll found that 59% of Americans lack confidence in honesty in elections for a variety of reasons, including concerns about interference from foreign powers or national political elites, security concerns and general frustration.
Americans’ confidence is lower than that reported in almost all other democratic countries.
With mail voting, research has found that people are more concerned that their vote is not counted correctly, compared to in-person voting. A 2008 study found that white absentee voters were less confident that their ballots would be counted correctly than white in-person voters.
A 2008 telephone survey found that about half of respondents were concerned that voting by mail could lead to further fraud, although the survey results report did not describe specific types of fraud respondents feared.
The 2015 investigation mostly confirmed those findings, revealing that people in the states with the most absentee ballots tend to believe that various types of voter fraud are more common. That same study also found that absentee voters are less certain that their vote will count than people who voted in person before Election Day or on the same day.
Some concerns about mailed ballots not counted may be legitimate: A 2018 study in Florida found that mailed ballots of younger voters and voters who needed help marking their ballots were more frequently rejected than others. This indicates that the standards for rejecting mailed ballots may not be uniform, or that the signatures of some voters change over time in ways that election officials may not expect or accept.
However, a 2011 California investigation found that frequent public communication from election officials can increase voters’ faith in voting by mail.
All of this evidence leads to some clear conclusions: voting by mail is, or, with the training of election officials and the use of common standards, it can be done as honestly as voting in person. Officials can help ensure public confidence by being transparent and communicating their plans and preparations.
People are more interested in voting by mail than ever because of the pandemic.
Epidemiology indicates that voting from home is safer than going to a crowded public building to vote.
The November elections will likely involve many more mail ballots than in the past. To maintain voter confidence in its entirety, our review indicates that local election offices and the US Postal Service will need to make substantial additional preparations to provide mail ballots and to handle the largest volume of mail-in ballots. .
And the public must understand that the voting results may not be clear for days after Election Day. Poll workers take longer to open, verify signatures, and count ballots by mail than voting machines, and some states, such as Michigan, do not allow ballots to be opened by mail until Election Day.
But when the counts are announced, if a large number of Americans have voted by mail, the public can feel confident that the process was fair and the results are accurate.
Edie Goldenberg is a professor of public policy and political science at the University of Michigan.
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