Jared C. Tilton | fake pictures
The NASCAR postseason photo just had a fresh face and a precarious bubble.
Rookie Cole Custer had his first Cup Series victory on Sunday at Kentucky Speedway, giving him a sudden jolt of playoff eligibility. The win practically locks him up on the 16-driver postseason grid as one of nine series winners this season, despite being 20th in the standings, more than a little behind the other provisional qualifiers, They are in the top 10 in points.
RELATED: Playoff Watch | Recent rookie winners
That jolt to the postseason pile means Austin Dillon, who was provisionally last week at 16th in the standings, is now out next, even with his point range unchanged. The tentative final qualification for the playoffs is now 15th place, Jimmie Johnson, who would advance on the basis of points, even after a one-race absence after his revelation of a positive COVID-19 test. Another new Cup Series winner outside that point range would put that place in deeper danger.
To recap and update, here are the drivers who have practically sealed the tiebreaker spots (in chronological order by date of their victory): Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr. , Ryan Blaney, Cole Custer.
With 17 of the 26 scheduled regular season runs completed, this is how the top 12 bubble drivers with no wins accumulate as the playoff limit approaches.
Aric Almirola (tenth in the provisional playoff standings, +116 points to the cut line): The burgeoning consistency has pulled the Stewart-Haas Racing driver out of true bubble territory. A victory seems close, but even without it, the accumulation of points is an advantageous safety net.
Kurt Busch (11th in the provisional playoff rankings, +104 points to the cut line): See: Almirola, re: safety net. Kentucky marked its fourth result in the top five of the year and reinforced a substantial point cushion.
Kyle Busch (12th in the provisional playoff rankings, +89 points to the cut line): Stumped to see Rowdy without a win so late in the season? Let’s go back to 2017, when Busch ran out of wins for the first 20 races of the regular season and then activated the wick in a five-win season that fell to a championship position.
Matt DiBenedetto (13th in the provisional playoff rankings, +68 points to the cut line): Matty D’s third place in Kentucky marked just his second top 5 this season, the first since Las Vegas in February. It is a fortifying result, as DiBenedetto was ranked in the top 10 in both stages for his highest points payout (43) of the year.
Clint Bowyer (14th in the provisional playoff rankings, +47 points to the cut line): The heart of the playoff bubble begins here. Bowyer was 56 points above the cut line after last week, but his second consecutive result in adolescence has taken away some of his points.
William Byron (15th in the provisional playoff rankings, +30 points to the cut line): Like his Hendrick Motorsports teammates, Byron has a respectable reserve of points on stage to keep him on the hunt for the playoffs. But as the weeks go by without that first top 5 of the season, worries and pressure could build.
Jimmie Johnson (16th in the provisional playoff rankings, +24 points to the cut line): There are several races left for the seven-time champion to solidify his bet for an eighth. As it stands now, Custer’s victory pushes Johnson to “last in” territory, reducing the margin for error in the future.
Austin Dillon (17th in the provisional playoff rankings, -24 points to the cut line): A strange twist at the end of the race threatened to derail Dillon’s efforts in Kentucky, but RCR’s No. 3 team recovered to rescue at 13th. Four straight adolescent finals have brought Dillon up in the series standings, but he will need more for the safety of the playoffs.
Tyler Reddick (18th in provisional playoff rankings, -41 points to cut line): The dynamic rookie has left little doubt about his budding skill, but the deficit created by three early DNFs and then a grim double title at Pocono (late 30s and 35s) makes his point path more difficult.
Erik Jones (19th in the provisional playoff rankings, -42 points to the cut line): That sinking feeling for the No. 20 JGR driver comes from the finals in the back half of the field in three of the past four races. Texas, one of Jones’ best tracks, is shaping up to be a potential turning point, but a playoff push will need sustained momentum.
Bubba Wallace (20th in the provisional playoff rankings, -84 points to the cut line): Wallace’s bid for his first postseason appearance will require more effort as his ninth place finish in Indianapolis than a worldly 27th in Kentucky. Unless there is a rebound, Richard Petty Motorsports’ No. 43 group may need to rely on some super speed magic at the end of the regular season at Daytona.
Chris Buescher (21st in the provisional playoff rankings, -91 points to the cut line): Another driver in “Ave Maria” territory, Buescher followed two consecutive top 10s with finishes of 36, 31 and 20 in the last three races. Overall, Buescher is now tied for Custer at 20th, but the rookie win in Kentucky represents a great jumping moment.
