Before election day turned into election week, Democrats were hoping for a landslide – a blue wave that would make Joe Biden president, but Republicans would fight for control of the Senate.
Largely in both the Senate and the House, his pipe dream came true, President Biden could devise an ambitious agenda: insurance 4 4 trillion, new spending on health insurance, climate change and other local priorities, paid for by large tax increases on the rich.
Even once the Democratic nominee is fired as a weak middleman, Franklin D. Roosevelt could become the changing president.
But the blue wave did not come. Biden appears to have won the White House by a healthy margin, but the Democrats won only one seat in the Senate, two less than they need to control. They have a second chance at Georgia’s runoff election in January, but the odds don’t look good.
That’s why some Democrats are so annoyed despite their presidential victory. With Adag Sen. With Mitch McConnell (R-Q) running the Senate, he sees no prospect of passing the big law he promised Biden.
This means that the Biden era is unlikely to transform after all.
At best, he could be a pragmatic president marked by common hard-won advantages but no home run. Worst of all, according to one Republican strategist, he can only be remembered as “a career president” – an interregnum until the next election.
Republicans have few incentives to compromise with the former vice president. McConnell built his reputation by disrupting President Obama’s legislative agenda – and gaining a Senate majority in 2014.
Since then, both parties and their constituents have gained more polarization. Next year’s Senate Republican will include fewer moderators than McConnell’s current Caucus, while Biden last served in the Senate much less than he did 12 years ago.
G.O.P. For legislators, compromising with Democrats is a good way to invite a right-wing challenge in the next primary election.
Last week’s election only failed to reject President Trump within his party; He called Trumpism a G.O.P. Established as the dominant ideology of
If a Republican deals with the person who defeated him, Trump may remain silent on the scene, presenting remarks and insults. He could also run for a second term in 2024.
Democratic strategist James P., who spent 21 years as an Army aide. “In the hyper-partition era, senators who wander too far end up as roadkills,” Melay Nali said.
Mnle told me, “Biden will try to deal with McConnell, but I see no chance of a honeymoon. “There aren’t many deals that Biden can cut with him – and certainly not many that would be acceptable to other Democrats.”
Based on years of hard experience, it is traditional wisdom in Washington.
But there is another, more optimistic view: there was a solid working relationship between Biden and McConnell during the Obama administration, and they negotiated a series of budget deals.
Perhaps, right now, the life-and-death stakes of the COVID-19 epidemic are driving them to work together again.
Biden has said he wants to try.
“If we can decide not to cooperate, we can decide to cooperate,” he said in his victory speech on Saturday. “I believe this is part of the mandate given to us by the American people. They want us to cooperate in their interest, and this is what I like. “
How to do it? One of the organizers of a bipartisan group called “No Labels”, William A. of the Brookings Institution. Galston is arranging quiet talks between senators from both parties.
The first step, he said, is for both sides to compromise on a relief package to reduce the economic pain caused by the epidemic – a “confidence-building measure”.
After that, Biden may choose other issues where the two sides share at least a common area: infrastructure spending, China’s policy, perhaps police reform.
“President Biden will tell left-wing members of his own party to be realistic,” said Galston, a former aide to President Clinton. That means until after deferred priorities like health care and climate change, he said.
If Biden takes that route, expect a major uprising from the left.
It would be good to assume that Gelston is right: simple experiments with bipartisanship can lead to good things along the way. It’s definitely worth a try.
But put me down as a suspect. There will be tremendous partisan incentives to force Republicans to resist any move that addresses Biden’s name.
Even without bilateral assistance, Biden could change a lot of federal policies through executive action like Obama and Trump. It could undo most of Trump’s racking ball crusades against environmental, consumer, labor and financial regulations. It could be a deliberate and cruel application of immigration law. And it could change foreign policy, rebuild alliances that Trump disliked.
But when it comes to legislation, Biden is unlikely to have a chance as a changeable president like the FDR. Instead, without his own flaws, his tenure could earn a less inspiring label: the Gridlock Presidency.
