Of course, there were not many positives to taking the bad weekend off with the Cubs’ Brewers, but I would like to be optimistic on a Monday, so let’s talk about one of them: Craig Kimbrel.
After a very rough start to the 2020 season (7 earned runs in 2.2 IP) that effectively, if not uncertainly, he lost his job when the Cubs were closer for the moment, Kimbrel threw back-to-back scoreless outbursts against the Brewers, with four strikeouts, no hits, and only one walk.
Kimbrel threw a scoreless 9th with both K’s on warm-up yesterday. pic.twitter.com/S4GqkDeBOW
– Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) August 15, 2020
Four K’s over his last two outings.
Craig Kimbrel is trending in the right direction: https://t.co/iuLckdwh9f pic.twitter.com/mXeh8D51FB
– Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) August 17, 2020
On Friday, Kimbrel’s fastball averaged 97 MPH, his highest of the season, while his knockout curve, which had no swing all season, generated no one, not two, but two swings before his exit was through. And despite the added speed and again useful curveball on Friday, Kimbrel probably looked even better on Sunday, when he put the Brewers ahead for a 1-2-3 inning with two strikeouts and an infield pop-up.
And in order not to lose it in the shuffle: these were not mop-up trips. Far from it, actually. On Friday, Kimbrel entered a one-run game in the 9th inning, and on Sunday, he was in a one-run game in the 8th inning. Both appearances were exactly the role of the closer he was brought to Chicago to perform, but they were high lift, important innings and for now, that may be where Kimbrel places himself.
Asked if Kimbrel was ready to take the reins after leaving yesterday, what David Ross said the net say said a terrible fate:
“Yeah, Craig throws the ball well,” Ross said. “It’s like the things he’s done well over the course of his career.”
Is Kimbrel back to be closer to you?
“I think Craig really throws the ball,” Ross said. “I really do.”
So… no comment?
“I try to set every man up to succeed,” Ross said. “Craig at the back end of our bullpen is definitely an option.”
Whatever its role, the results are starting to get better, and – more interestingly – so has the underlying performance.
Before I dig into the data, I just want to generally indicate how much better Kimbrel is see on the mound. At the widest level it seems to stay higher and central, it tends to become too rotating (which reduces that large fall from the mound to the first base side). It seems to me that if he stays upright after his delivery, he ends up with improved command, which is important to keep hitters honest with his fastball – they can not just sit in one place as he moves it up and down, in and out .
But apparently it is also an enormous development to throw that knuckle curve for a strike. The more he gets into both zones in the zone, the more aggressive hunters must be. And the more aggressive they are, the more wives we will see if Kimbrel also hides his jobs better. That knuckle curve has always been annoying, but it only works when fights are fooled by him out of his hands.
In those past two games, the Brewers looked really restless on the plate, swinging for balls out of the zone, while also seeing strikes fall inside.
Friday
Batter 1: Avisail Garcia, Strikeout
• Call strike (FB)
• Foul ball (FB)
• Foul ball (KC)
• Swinging strike (FB)
After coming early in the count against Garcia, Kimbrel went to his knockout curve, which got his first swing of the season. And after flying that pitch only once, Kimbrel Garcia was able to stretch out at a heater of 97.6 MPH at the top of the zone.
Batter 2: Justin Smoak, Walk
• ball (FB)
• Called Strike (KC)
• Swinging Strike (KC)
• ball (FB)
• ball (FB)
• Ball (KC)
Although Kimbrel ran the second tackle he scored Friday, he threw his knuckle curve for a call to the second pitch of the at-bat, which led to a whiff on his knuckle curve immediately. The battle was then lost, but that is a good sign for the ongoing war.
Batter 3: Ben Gamel, Line out
• ball (FB)
• Foul ball (FB)
• Swinging Strike (FB)
• ball (FB)
• In play, off (KC)
Kimbrel got his third knockout swing of the season against Ben Gamel, and although it was a very hard liner (102 MPH), it was directed at Nico Hoerner for the second out.
Batter 4: Manny Piña, Strikeout
• Swinging strike (FB)
• ball (FB)
• Swinging Strike (FB)
• ball (FB)
• Swinging strike (FB)
For the final of the day, Kimbrel started Manny Pina with four straight fastballs, just like Gamel, but instead of going to the curve (which could be what Pina was looking for, seeing the previous at-bat), Kimbrel delivered something high for the third strike.
Saturday it was even better – and even more impressive considering it was against the three same hitters. They literally saw both the pitfalls of Kimbrel and how he attacked boys in certain counts, and yet they produced even less, looked even more uncomfortable, made less and worse contact, and saw more strikes pass.
Sunday
Batter 1: Avisail Garcia, Strikeout
• ball (FB)
• Called Strike (FB)
• Swinging Strike (FB)
• Called Strike (FB)
Kimbrel went into the zone only once in this at-bat, the one whiff, and placed his fastball otherwise completely PERFECT:
Batter 2: Justin Smoak, Strikeout
• Called Strike (FB)
• Called Strike (KC)
• Called Strike (KC)
In perhaps the most encouraging record appearance of Kimbrel’s season, he dropped two hammers on Smoak, who just saw them pass with absolutely no plan to attack. Three pitches, total confusion, three strikes, sitting.
Batter 3: Manny Piña, Pop Out
• Called Strike (FB)
• Ball 1 (FB)
• Ball 2 (FB)
• Swinging Strike (FB)
• Foul (FB)
• Ball 3 (FB)
• Foul (FB)
• Pop-out (FB)
Kimbrel threw nothing but fastballs to Manny Piña over both at-bats, which is exactly what the book should have been on him.
But these exchanges were not just a mix of good luck and good results. Yes, Kimbrel had better command and speed, but it seems like he had both because of significant mechanical changes, apparently in his horizontal and vertical release points:
Both release points are still below the peak of his career, but if they continue to go in the right direction, I think we will see better pitches, more unbalanced hitters, and many more fighters in general. . From there, we could have a bit of a multiplier effect, where Kimbrel’s ability to bring out fighters dramatically improves.
There have been only two outings and as David Ross implied, we are not quite out of the woods yet, but these were two encouraging outings in moments of high charge with all the good peripheral devices underneath. For now, I choose to be optimistic.
