Hello mish Happy July 4th.
CV19 is an RNA virus. They tend to mutate frequently but not dramatically. Most of the mutations are insignificant and are not for virus improvement and these are quickly extinguished.
Despite high mutation rates, it is rare to see a mutation change the “mode” of transmission for short periods of time in humans. Although the mutation can change the virus to make it more severe or easier to transmit, it rarely changes the mode of transmission.
As a result, vaccines that target the mode of transmission are often very effective. Virus mutations rarely change the virus enough to make the vaccine ineffective.
Once the vaccine is out, there is always a small chance that the virus will mutate to resist the vaccine. However, this has not happened with other RNA vaccines for measles, mumps, and yellow fever.
That is why I am confident that there will be several vaccines available in 2021 that will provide some degree of effectiveness. Together, they will probably provide significant protection for most people. The duration of protection will be key. I suspect that early vaccines will be necessary to be taken annually, but I hope that eventually a vaccine will emerge that will provide several years of protection.
Until then, it is very important to wear a mask, social distance, avoid large crowds, clean and disinfect, and try and track. This is how other countries have domesticated the virus, allowing them to open up their economies while waiting for a vaccine.
