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There is further evidence to suggest that growth in coronavirus cases may have stopped in England and Wales.
Data from three different analyzes show that new infections may progress more slowly than in previous weeks – but it is still too early to confirm.
The R number, which reflects the general trend and not today’s picture, has risen again to 1.3-1.6.
Further restrictions have been imposed in some parts of England and settled in some areas of Wales.
The government’s scientific adviser, Sage, says the epidemic is growing rapidly across the country.
An R or reproductive number is a measure of how many other people each person is infected with the virus, so an R between 1.3 and 1.6 means that on average 10 people infect 13 to 16 others.
In March, before any control measures were taken, the R was considered just below three.
- What is an R number and how is it calculated?
The National Fiscal for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that there were 8,400 new cases per day in England from week 24 to September 24 – a slight decrease from the previous week’s estimate of 9,600 daily cases.
This would be equivalent to one in 500 people with the virus in England, and also in Wales.
“There is some limited evidence that the incidence may decrease following the steep growth in August Gust and early September,” says ONS.
Preliminary estimates from Northern Ireland indicate that one in 400 people have the virus.
The scientists behind the covid symptoms study application said their data indicated that the number of new covid cases in the UK had “flattened” in the last four days.
They estimate that there are approximately 21,000 new cases per day in the two weeks leading up to 28 September, in the north of England and among people under the age of 30.
Tim Speckt, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London and founder of the app, said spring could now explain why more young people are infected than Tuni, “explaining why the pressure on the NHS is less”.
These two analyzes of the spread of the virus reflect the findings of the React Study which found that, although the cases are still high, the growth of the virus in England may slow down.
He said this could be due to a move like the “six rules”.
ONS estimates of how much of the population is currently infected are based on testing of representative samples of households with or without symptoms.
It differs from the number published daily by the Department of Health and Social Care. It reports positive cases in people with potential covid symptoms who request tests.
On Thursday, testing found 6,914 new cases of the virus, government figures show. In recent days it has been slightly below and below the number at the top of the epidemic.
But in general, cases have been steadily rising since the end of August.
