- The coronavirus has been rampant in prisons, particularly the San Quentin State Prison in the Bay Area, and the uncontrolled spread may suggest that herd immunity without a vaccine is highly unlikely, The Los Angeles Times reported.
- At least 2,200 cases have been reported out of the 3,260 people at the facility, with 25 dead.
- The death toll is equivalent to about 767 people dying out of every 100,000 people, which if applied to the entire US would mean 2.5 million deaths.
- Herd immunity to COVID-19 requires immunity of 40% to 70% of the population, which means that at least 32,500,000 people must be immune.
- Only 1.5% of the US have tested positive for coronavirus so far.
- Of the more than 5 million cases, more than 164,000 died.
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The coronavirus has run rampant in prisons, particularly San Quentin, where, since Monday, 2,200 cases were reported from the 3,260 people at the facility; there have been 25 reported deaths.
The Los Angeles Times reported that the uncontrolled spread of the coronavirus in San Quentin reflects how some suggested we were dealing with the virus, by catching as many members of the population as possible to create herd immunity.
While more than two-thirds of the prison population may have caught the virus, the spread only meant prolonged illness and unnecessary death, the LA Times said.
The facility’s death rate is equivalent to about 767 people who die out of every 100,000 people, the LA Times reported. In contrast, the death toll in the US as a whole is around 49.5 people for every 100,000. As of Tuesday, more than 164,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. and more than 5 million have been infected.
If the death of San Quentin were reflected nationwide, it would be equal to 2.5 million people dying from COVID-19.
Michael Kirkpatrick, a former resident who was released and tested positive for the virus, told the LA Times that only about five cells in his 50-cell tier did not have people infected with the virus.
“You could not help it, but get it – you stay in a place without ventilation,” he told the LA Times.
A high mortality rate is a major consequence for police officers who support an uncontrolled spread to achieve herd immunity, that is, when a large enough percentage of a population is immune to a pathogen so that it cannot spread widely. In order for there to be any immunity anywhere between 40% to 70% of the population, it would have to be immune to the coronavirus in order to be the case, Business Insider reported earlier.
Only 5,139,920 are infected in the US, which is only 1.5% of the population. To get near-heard immunity anywhere, at least 132,500,000 people need to be immune to the virus, which means they need to be exposed.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s expert on infectious diseases, said the rate of exposure should come not only from people who are infected and recovered, but also vaccinations, the LA Times reported.
The situation prevailing in prison is not the only indicator that immunity to herds may not be achieved soon, especially without a vaccine.
A major Spanish study last month found that antibodies to the coronavirus disappeared after just a few weeks in some patients, Business Insider reported earlier. The study found that only 5% of those tested in Spain kept antibodies to the virus and that 4% of those who tested positive for coronavirus antibodies in the first round of testing did not test positive a week later for the antibodies.
