The social distance and other measures put in place due to the coronavirus epidemic will increase the incidence of flu in the coming winter, a study warns.
So-called non-pharmaceutical interventions – behavioral changes that control the spread of the disease – have been in place since 2020. This includes wearing a face mask and social distance.
These measures have not only helped to break the transmission chain for Covid-19, but have also reduced the infection rate of other diseases.
As a result, seasonal influenza and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) became infected in less than one-fifth of the average people in the United States in 2020, data show, a.
However, researchers warn that this obvious bonus will have a knock-on effect in the coming years, as it increases the pool of vulnerable people.
The number of people at potential risk will increase further, as the mask and social distance due to the Covid-19 epidemic will remain the same for many months.
They will only be possible once the vaccine has been widely circulated and proven effective.
When that happens, possibly in the spring of 2021, another virus will capture the abandonment of this measure, infecting the now swollen vulnerable population.
Respiratory disease and viruses always thrive in the coldest months, with researchers expecting to suffer from 2021-222 cases of fox flu and RSV.
Scientists at Princeton University warn that this future epidemic is likely to ‘increase the burden’ on health care systems.
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Flu data for Hawaii show that when non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented in March (vertical dotted line) the number of flu cases (blue line) dropped significantly from previous years (gray dots). This could lead to a flu spike in winter next year, experts predict
The also shows the dotted line when the COVID-19 epidemic broke out and masks and social distance began. The points are previous data for flu levels in previous years. For Minnesota, the actual cases for 2020 (Blue Line) are much lower than normal rates. This will create a large sensitive population going forward
While some diseases are more easily spread than others, some are more dangerous, with higher mortality rates, and some find it more difficult to vaccinate.
For example, mut tu flu changes rapidly and as a result a vaccine is only partially effective, meaning a different one must be made each year.
But the flu death rate is less than 0.1 percent, while the coronavirus is around three percent, making the flu much less deadly.
This is the main reason why Covid-19 has been so prevalent in society – it spreads a little slower than the flu but is more likely to affect people.
The flu also benefits from the herd’s immune system, where many people in a population are protected from rearrangement because they caught the virus at an earlier stage and resisted it.
Therefore, they have developed their own protection and antibodies can fight infection.
The annual flu vaccine is given to vulnerable people whose immune systems may be struggling with this, such as the elderly and pregnant women.
This graph shows the forecast for RSV cases going forward in Texas and Florida. The blue dotted line indicates the susceptibility of people who are vulnerable. It spikes after the gray shaded area, which is the period where the mask and social distance are likely to apply. The red line shows the previous (before 2020) or future amount of people infected with RSV. It is expected to grow in the coming winter of next year due to the large sensitive population. In Florida it can be four times the norm, and in Texas it can be twice as standard
Scientists have released a highly advanced example of the coronavirus he created (pictured), mapping both its external appearance and internal structure.
RSV is another virus that affects the respiratory tract and is passed from one person to another.
It is very common and most children become infected by the age of two.
However, it can also infect adults and older children, with symptoms similar to those of the common cold.
RSV can cause serious infections in some people, especially premature babies, older adults, infants and adults with heart and lung disease, or very weakened immune systems (immunocompromised).
Researchers at Princeton University used this year’s data on infection rates with seasonal flu and RSV and compared it with previous years’ levels.
U.S. Since the enactment of the Mask, Social Distance and Travel ban, RSV transmission has declined by 20 percent.
As a result of people getting fewer infections now, more people are more susceptible going forward.
“We think that a significant outbreak of RSV could occur in the coming years, with a peak outbreak in the winter of 2021-22022,” the researchers wrote.
‘The consequences of influenza echo this picture widely, but are more uncertain; Future outbreaks depend on the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of potential rotation. ‘
Complete findings are published in PNAS.
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