Kovid-19 patients are now three times less likely to have highly contagious levels of the virus than in the early days of the epidemic.
- Researchers analyzed viral loads from nasal samples of more than 700 hospitalized coronavirus patients
- In April, 50% of patients had an intermediate viral load compared to the high viral load group and 25% of each of the low viral load group.
- Five weeks later, in June, 70% of lower-class patients compared to 20% in the intermediate group and 15% in the upper group
- Lower viral load is associated with a lower percentage of deaths with 45% of deaths in the upper group compared to 14% in the lower group.
A new study suggests that viral loads of coronavirus patients are decreasing as the epidemic progresses.
Researchers have found that only 25 percent of patients who were hospitalized in April had low levels of the virus in their nasal swabs.
However, after only five weeks, the viral load was lower in about three-quarter samples of patients – showing a 180 percent increase.
Furthermore, a reduction in viral load was associated with a reduction in mortality.
A team from Wayne State University in Detroit, Michigan, says it believes there has been a reduction in serious cases as states have implemented measures such as social distance and facial mask orders.
A new study from Wayne State University found that 50% of hospitalized coronavirus patients were in the intermediate viral load category, while 25% of patients in the upper and lower groups each. Picture: A nurse cares for a coronavirus COVID-19 patient in the ICU of the Regional Medical Center in San Jose, California, May 21.
Five weeks later, in June, 70% of lower-class patients compared to 20% in the intermediate group and 15% (above) in the upper group
For the study, the team looked at the viral load of SARS-Cavi-2 obtained from nasopharyngeal samples over two months.
A total of 708 patients admitted to the hospital at Detroit Medical Center were examined between April 4 and June 5, 2020.
To estimate the viral load, researchers used a cycle threshold (CT) value for each sample, which was used to indicate a higher CT lower viral load.
High, intermediate, and low viral load samples CT values of 25 or more were defined as 26 to 36, and 37 or higher, respectively.
During the first week of the study period, about 50 percent of the viral load samples fell into the intermediate category.
By comparison, only one-quarter of each was classified as high or low.
Lower viral load deaths are associated with a lower percentage of deaths in the upper group compared to 45% in the lower group (14%).
However, over the weeks the percentage of samples in the upper and intermediate viral load groups decreased and the samples in the lower class increased.
During the last week of the study period, viral loads were low in 70% of positive coronavirus samples.
About 20 percent of the samples were in the middle class and about 15 percent were in the upper group.
Researchers have also found that a reduction in viral load is equivalent to a reduction in the percentage of deaths.
About half of the patients in the high viral group died from Covid-19, a disease caused by the virus.
By comparison, 32 percent of intermediate category patients and 14 percent of lower category patients died.
A resident of Detroit Medical Center, Dr. “The exact cause of the initial viral load loss over time is unclear,” said Saeed al-Zayn.
Initially the following trend [viral load] A decrease in epidemic severity may be reflected and trends in viral load values over time may represent a marker for evaluating epidemic progression.
‘Rapid implementation of social distance measures, lockdowns and widespread use of face masks has reduced virus exposure.’
These findings were presented at the European Society Clinical Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Conference on Coronavirus Disease.
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