This year, the coronavirus pandemic could create the perfect winter storm, and scientists say countries must prepare for a potential rebound in cases that could be more severe than the initial outbreak.
In cold climates, we spend more time indoors in poorly ventilated spaces, exactly the conditions that can make the new coronavirus more easily spread. Furthermore, coronavirus cases will likely be more difficult to track and trace since the symptoms of Covid-19 are similar to those of winter respiratory insects. Governments may also find it more difficult to enact blockade measures on already quarantined populations.
The northern hemisphere may have had a mild flu season last winter, but there is still a risk of a flu epidemic this year. Furthermore, the pandemic has disrupted and stretched medical care in many countries, leading to a backlog of exhausted patients and front-line workers who are still recovering from the staggering number of cases so far.
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The UK Academy of Medical Sciences has modeled what it described as a “reasonable worst case scenario”. The number of Covid-19-related hospital deaths between September 2020 and June 2021 in the UK could reach 119,900, the academy suggested. This projection is more than double the 45,000 deaths the UK has experienced so far. This number does not include possible deaths in nursing homes, which have accounted for 30% of deaths in England.
“We need to do everything we can to stay healthy this winter, and priority should be given to the most vulnerable,” said Dr. Stephen Holgate, clinical professor at the University of Southampton Medical Research Council for Immunopharmacology and honorary consulting physician and president. . Of the report
“We have these three months where things are improving,” he said. “This is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw us.”
Keep those windows open if you can
Being deeper in the winter means there are more opportunities for person-to-person virus transmission, according to the report. Less daylight means that people stay indoors for longer periods, and are more likely to drive or use public transportation.
Poor ventilation, combined with more crowded spaces, increases the density of virus particles circulating in the air, according to the report. He added that lower humidity, cooler temperatures and darker conditions could also mean that the virus stays longer on surfaces.
“In cold, humid or windy climates, people are reluctant to open windows as they create cold drafts and therefore often have lower ventilation rates in winter,” the report said.
“This can be a particular challenge in modern airtight buildings that have very low infiltration rates for energy efficiency and for low-income people trying to keep heating costs down.”
The Academy of Medical Sciences said its models indicated that Covid-19 cases would rise again in the fall and peak in January and February, the busiest time of year for the country’s National Health Service.
The figures from the Academy of Medical Sciences are based on the assumption that it will not be possible to introduce a blockade as effective as the one imposed by the United Kingdom in March 2020. The model does not take into account the use of potential new medicines. or discoveries about existing drugs, such as the steroid dexamethasone, that could reduce death rates. It also does not take into account other possible treatments or possible vaccines.
Get a flu shot.
It was particularly difficult, according to the report, to project how seasonal influenza would develop this winter. Yes it often varies in severity from year to year.
It could be that social distancing measures taken to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 could reduce the spread of the flu. Hong Kong, which was one of the first to adopt Covid-19 infection control measures, had a markedly shorter and less severe influenza epidemic last winter, a study found.
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However, it is possible to have a cold or flu at the same time as Covid-19, and this can increase the risk of sneezing and coughing, making it easier for Covid-19 to spread, according to the report from the Academy of Medical Sciences.
Furthermore, influenza and other respiratory diseases that share the same symptoms as Covid-19 are likely to make coronavirus cases and clusters more difficult to trace. The expected number of people in England and Wales alone who will meet current definitions of Covid-19 cases (cough or fever or loss of sense of smell) will increase from 100,000 per day in the summer to 360,000 per day in the winter, according to The report.
One thing that all experts unequivocally agree on is that as many people as possible should get the flu shot.
“This fall, before seasonal influenza circulation increases, I encourage the American people to be prepared and confidently adopt the flu vaccine for you and your families in the communities,” said Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said June 23.
“This one act will save lives,” added Redfield.
What is not known
While we know much more than we did six months ago about Covid-19, it is still unknown to what extent infection with Covid-19 last spring confers immunity. There is also a chance that the coronavirus may interact with the common cold, flu, or rhinovirus in an unexpected way this winter.
It’s also difficult to spot a trend of what’s happening in the southern hemisphere, where it’s in mid-winter right now, according to the report. Australia and New Zealand reacted quickly to the Covid-19 threat, and transmission of the virus remains at very low levels, according to the report. However, some countries in South America have seen an increase in cases.
In the United States and the United Kingdom, many students have not yet returned to school, and the new academic year is a factor that generally increases influenza transmission. While this has not been demonstrated with Covid-19, the report says schools, daycare centers, and universities should carefully monitor early evidence of a resurgence in cases.
In addition to flu shots, the Academy of Medical Sciences recommended a public information campaign as well as personalized advice for at-risk groups. She also emphasized ensuring that test and trace programs work properly and can cope with overlapping symptoms of the flu and other winter infections.
He stressed that his predictions were not a prediction but a possibility.
“The model suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take immediate action,” Holgate said.
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