SALT LAKE CITY – It is refreshing to see a decline in the curve of Utah’s Covid-19 epidemic after an increase in cases several months later; However, there are indications that recent case counts do not show a complete picture of COVID-19 in the state.
In the traditional sense, the spread of COVID-19 can only be determined by looking at new cases detected by testing. But what happens when testing for coronavirus is not exactly consistent?
There are other statistics simultaneously helping how COVID-19 is currently affecting the state.
Below confirmed cases, the positivity rate is slowly increasing
Of the tests taken on Friday, 972 new cases of Covid-19 were reported to the Utah Health Department on Saturday. That figure was the lowest single-day increase recorded since early October. In fact, it has struck at 100,000 or more daily cases reported by the health department on Oct. 301,000. Another 1,100 cases were reported in the test on Sunday, which is less than the seven-day rolling average. Christmas.
The state’s COVID-19 epidemic curve and the seven-day rolling average of new cases have also been declining since Dec. 10.
That said, the test is another figure that has fallen off at the same time. For example, on December 9, more than 15,000 people were tested for Covid-19 – the highest number of tests performed since Thanksgiving, according to health department data. With a few exceptions, most of the days in the state are reported to have taken less than 10,000 tests since then. Testing was not conducted on Christmas Day and test sites were closed early the day before Christmas, but the following trend appears on the graph before the holiday.
Meanwhile, the percentage of positive tests for tests, commonly referred to as positivity rates, increased only from the time when cases decreased. As of Monday, Utah’s seven-day rolling average positivity rate is 24.4% by that backdate of December 22nd. Preliminary data over the weekend indicated a positivity rate close to 30%, which means the number will increase in the coming days.
Experts say the positivity rate is an important statistic because it can better assess how prevalent the virus is in the community when the numbers fluctuate widely and become unreliable. In this case, the positivity rate is the biggest indication that Covid-19 does not leave Utah altogether, even though case counts are declining.
“We are certainly concerned because it represents a high level of community transmission,” said Dr. Infectious Disease Physician of Intermountain Healthcare. Todd Vento said. “That’s why we are constantly monitoring the situation to see if we need to take any additional steps there.”
Vento said health officials do not know exactly why the test is currently down; However, they have seen trends during epidemics and with diseases other than Covid-19. On a smaller scale, some days – like Sunday and Monday – offer less testing than other days. It is believed that when someone is expected to come out in public for some reason, such as for work, bound with this.
“A similar concept after the holidays,” Vento said. “We’ve seen in the past that the numbers went down immediately. Yesterday the numbers were so low that people who knew – for lack of a better word – woke up from their slumber from the holidays and could say, Tuesday or Wednesday they start thinking. Will ‘OK, I’ll go test.’ It’s not uncommon for other respiratory illnesses to occur. “
Since the test was low, he said the epidemic curve and the seven-day ongoing case count, “do not accurately reflect what is in the community”, especially in the days when the test was limited there.
This is where positivity rates come into play.
“You can’t just look at the case and the seven-day rolling average because it won’t accurately reflect the number of tests done.”
Speaking of Utah’s positivity rate, it has been a roller coaster for the past few weeks. A few days before Thanksgiving – Nov. After hitting 25.4% on the 10th, it is Nov. Fell 22.8% on the 22nd. It reached its current all-time high of 27.2% on December 1. On December 13 it went down to the previous 22.3%. Since then it has climbed steadily but at a much slower rate.
What happened to Kovid-19 hospitalization?
Of course, the biggest concern of COVID-19 is any impact on hospitals and deaths. Vento said hospitalization in Utah due to the coronavirus has stabilized and decreased slightly. It is a welcome sign for a statewide hospital system that was on the verge of full capacity.
Hospitalization due to COVID-1 usually lags behind in new cases, so COVID-19 cases in the state’s existing Dec06 hospitals were mainly due to Dec December before Thanksgiving. Public health experts warned about the holiday gathering that hospital admissions would only increase.
It seems that Utahns are at least paying attention to the epidemic recommendations for Thanksgiving. While many new cases were reported, it was not as alarming. As a result, for the first time since mid-November, the state health department reported less than 50,000 hospital admissions due to Kovid-19.
“While there was a boom within the boom in the nation – (there) a decline and then an increase in Thanksgiving in the United States – Thanksgiving we didn’t see as much level in the number of cases as we were figuring out or worrying about, which is pretty good,” he said. He said.
He added that hospitals have also learned to shorten investments for patients who do not need ICU care by providing home recovery models at home so that people can leave the hospital sooner.
Data show that Kovid-1 new has not left the state despite the decline in new cases, but a positive sign is that new patients are being admitted to hospitals due to coronavirus.
The state health department recently began reporting a seven-day rolling average for new hospital admissions per day, on top of current hospitalization figures. Utah reached a seven-day average of 92.4 hospitals per day on November 18th. On the same day, 116 new Utahns were hospitalized due to Kovid-19.
As of December 22, the average was 21.7 new hospital admissions, the first day ahead of the incomplete period of new hospital admissions data. These figures are even higher, especially compared to the number before November. However, it shows that the following guidelines for Thanksgiving gatherings have not only helped reduce the growth of new cases, but also helped reduce the impact on hospitals.
The jury is still out on whether New Year’s Day, the holiday season, should end in a way that doesn’t really end until Friday.
Heading outlook in the new year
All health recommendations for Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas and Kwanza apply to the new year. That means health officials advise that people celebrate the holidays at home and virtually connect with other homes.
Intermvanthan Healthcare also encouraged New Year’s Eve Ball Lane itself to come out of the styrofoam ball and wooden dowel as a way to celebrate the holiday at home in a fun and safe way.
Looking for a fun way to celebrate New Year’s Eve safely? Try to create the experience of dropping your own ball at home! #DIY # IMTNCovid19
Posted by Intermwarton Healthcare on Sunday, December 27th, 2020
Vento’s colleague, Dr. Eddie Steinhejem, another infectious disease physician at Intermvanthan Healthcare, said last week that he hopes the Covid-19 test will increase after the new year. He said one of the main reasons is that the Utah College will begin mass weekly testing of students living on campus for the spring semester.
Once it starts, then the positivity rate will be another key factor as the number of tests may exceed the previous test standards.
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