Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona reached 191,721 on Friday, August 14, an increase of 928 from the previous day; and the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 reached 4,423, an increase of 40 from the previous day, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services.
It marks the fourth day in the last six days that the number of new COVID-19 cases in Arizona has been less than 1,000, something the state has not experienced since June.
Of the total number of COVID-19 cases in Arizona since the beginning of the pandemic in January, 55 percent of the total number of cases reached that point – 95,343 – in July alone. But so far, August has shown a pattern of promising declines. While July saw an average increase of 3,075 new cases per day, Arizona is on average less than half that so far in August – an average of 1,216 new cases per day.
On Friday, Arizona health officials reported a 12.2% positive test rate.
Six months after the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in Arizona, the disease has become the third leading cause of death in the state this year, after cancer and heart disease, according to state data.
COVID-19 deaths are likely to place the disease between cancer, which killed 12,097 Arizonans in 2018, and accidents, which killed 4,373 people that year, the latest for which state death tolls are available.
A health department official warned against reading too much into the figures at this time, however, noting that the cause of death will not be official until analysts can verify death certificates, something that is unlikely to happen until late 2021 bart.
“Information on definitive death certificates can take weeks or months to gather, depending on the complexity of each case and whether testing or autopsy is required through the medical examiner,” said Holly Poynter, the department’s spokeswoman, adding that final counts “tend to be lower than the counts produced” by daily reporting.
But other health experts in the state said the disease could “easily” become one of the biggest killers in the state this year.
“I think it’s absolutely within the realm of possibility. That’s obviously not a guarantee, because there are things we can do politically to reduce the death toll,” said Joe Gerald, an associate professor of public health policy. and management at the University of Arizona.
The daily ADHD numbers for COVID-19 indicate that the disease would be the third leading cause of death compared to other causes over six months, whether 2018 statistics are used as an average of deaths for the 10-year period of 2008 -2018.
COVID-19 already appears to obscure opioid deaths, which has been the headline epidemic of recent years. The health department reports that 6,500 people have died from an apparent overdose since June 15, 2017, a rate of less than 2,200 deaths per year on average.
Ping Yang, an epidemiologist at the Mayo Clinic, agreed with Poynter that it might be too soon to declare COVID-19 a leading cause of death, simply because the demand for sorting mortality rates could be a bit complicated.
Chronic diseases with lower respiratory, for example, would probably not include deaths from COVID-19, because the disease is not a chronic disease, but complications caused by the coronavirus could increase the mortality rate for respiratory diseases, she explained via email. Chronic diseases of lower respiratory tract diseases were the third leading cause of death in Arizona for the period 2008-2018.
But Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association, said it does not deny that mortality rates as a whole are already strongly affected by the coronavirus. He said June and July are normally lower months for deaths, but not this year.
“The gross death toll is not lying, it’s just total mortality,” Humble said. “And you can not quite say that each of these is COVID-19, but you can see a big jump in June and July will be a much bigger jump.”
God Ducey’s office did not respond to requests for comment.
But Poynter said that, given the definitive analysis, the number of deaths is a reminder that the disease must be taken seriously by everyone. That means wearing a mask, washing hands, staying home when you feel sick and keeping a distance of 6 feet from others if possible, among other measures.
“We are currently seeing increased deaths as a result of COVID-19, which is consistent with counts of higher cases in early summer,” she said in an email. “It’s an important reminder that COVID-19 is widespread in Arizona, and the best way to protect yourself and your community from COVID-19 is to take preventative measures every day and every day.”
COVID-19 is a serious disease that can be fatal to anyone, especially our elderly population and people with underlying health conditions. ADHD advises everyone to take precautionary measures:
The best ways to prevent the spread of COVID-19:
• Wash your hands frequently with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. If soap and water are not available, use an alcohol-based sanitizer.
• Wear a mask when you are near other people.
• Do not forget to touch your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands.
• Avoid contact with sick people.
• Stay home when you are sick.
• Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, and immediately throw the tissue in the trash.
• Frequently clean and disinfect objects and surfaces.
COVID-19 spreads through the air as an infected cough or sneeze. Symptoms are thought to appear within two to 14 days after exposure and include fever, cough, runny nose, and difficulty breathing. For people with mild illness, individuals are asked to stay home, drink plenty of fluids and get some rest. For people with more severe symptoms, such as shortness of breath, individuals are advised to seek health care.
ADHS activated its Health Emergency Operations Center on January 27 after the first case of travel-associated COVID-19 was confirmed in Arizona. The Health Care Operations Center remains open to coordinate the state’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak. For more information on the COVID-19 response in Arizona, go online to azhealth.gov/COVID19.
Farah Eltohamy of Cronkite News contributed to this report.
