Could it be autumn before enough Oregonians are vaccinated to reach herd immunity against COVID-19?


With vaccine distribution imminent, public health officials said Friday they could not make any predictions about the first wave of reg regionians – approximately 360,000 healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities. – All will be vaccinated for Covid-19.

They also cannot say when these vaccines will eventually reach the general population because the federal government has given them less information.

But could it be as far away as next fall? Maybe.

“The challenge is,” said Patrick Allen, director of the Oregon Health Authority. “…We are not given a schedule of any kind of delivery or any idea of ​​how many doses to expect on a regular basis of any kind. “

Allen added: “I don’t want to try to predict how long it will take until we see the vaccine on the loading dock.”

According to the governor’s office, so far the federal government has promised to send 197,500 doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine to Oregon in December, just the beginning of the week, if emergency use is approved as expected.

That’s enough to vaccinate about 100,000 Oregonians, as everyone needs two doses every few weeks.

Allen noted that federal officials have said that anyone wishing to be vaccinated could be before June. Federal officials have also said that while the vaccines in children are yet to be studied, it will be summer before children start receiving immunizations.

During the same live streaming news conference, Governav. Kate Brown told reporters that the state is working to vaccinate 10,000 residents a day and “it will take us most of the year to do that.”

With more than 2.3 million inhabitants, a reporter noted, it would take in October, at a rate of 10,000 inhabitants per day, before enough inoculation was reached to reach the door immunity.

State and federal officials say they expect flock immunity – the point where many people are inoculated that the virus will inevitably die – to be reached when 70%, or about three million Oregonians, have received their dose.

The increase in Thanksgiving is lower than expected

More than two weeks after Thanksgiving, state epidemiologist Dr. Dean Sidlinger said Oregon has largely avoided the fear and expected growth in COVID-19 cases, if the holiday is celebrated, if residents gather and reunite with a large extended family.

“Oregonians, I thank you for all the changes and sacrifices you’ve made,” Sidlinger said during the news conference. “… These decisions, as drastic as they were, probably slowed the growth of cases. We do not yet see the possibility of a rapidly growing case. “

Two weeks ago, Reg Reagan’s rolling average was 1,236 cases per day. On Friday, it was 1,426. That’s a 15% increase from Thanksgiving.

But in the past week, the seven-day average has fallen 7% – from 1,533 cases a week earlier to 1,426 on Friday.

Meanwhile, nationally it has risen 28% in the last two weeks and 15% in the previous week.

Siddlelinger said many on Regonio observed a series of mandatory public safety measures by the governor, including avoiding social gatherings of more than six people and closing all restaurants and bars in November. The governor has since eased some of those restrictions to allow outdoor dining and has adopted a generally lighter, tiered-approach across the state.

According to a New York Times tracker, Oregon has the lowest and fourth highest mortality rate among states since the epidemic began. But the death toll has risen sharply in recent weeks, with more than 300 O Regonian people with COVID-19 killed in November alone.

The state’s death toll has risen to 1,138 since Friday 16, at a pace higher than last month’s record.

However, Ellen, director of the Reg Reagan Health Authority, said that if Americans had died of coronavirus at the same rate as Oregonians died nationally, “we would have killed 2,000 more people.” The New York Times’ tracker data suggests that 2,600 more deaths would have been worse than Len Lunn said.

Lack of support

Brown noted several times during the news conference that Reg Reagan did not receive adequate cash support from Washington, D.C., and “there is no question … the federal government needs to take action.”

He said there has been a lack of assistance to struggling businesses, including rent restaurants, in high-risk areas of the state, which has been forced to close all but takeouts. Brown said money is also needed for people who can’t afford rent and landlords whose tenants can’t pay.

Similarly, the federal government has provided little cash for vaccine rollout efforts in Reg Reagan, he said.

“Just to give you a perspective, we’ve received $ 5 million from the federal government to help with vaccination efforts,” Brown said. “I expect a little more but if you do the math it’s a little more than a dollar a l per O regonian.”

Long haul

State officials also took the time on Friday to emphasize the importance of efforts to prevent coronavirus infection in all reg ragonian people, who are not likely to die statistically.

Darruh Isaacs, a resident of southeastern Portland, spoke at a news conference to warn people that COVID-19 is not a flu case. She was not a healthy, active person with an underlying condition when she contracted the virus in early March. She had a fever, cough, body aches, extreme fatigue and a nagging headache.

“I don’t really remember the days when I was sick,” said Isaacs, 40.

More than nine months later, he is still lean sick.

“My family loves driving, biking and camping and canoeing, but we haven’t done anything this summer because now I can barely get around the block,” Isaacs said.

At times, she may no longer be able to stand to take a shower. She woke up in the middle of the night panting for air, then ran to the emergency room. On the worst days, it’s bedridden.

The hardest part, she said, is not being able to play with her 5-year-old daughter.

“A few months ago he told me, “I wish you were like a real mom,” says Isaacson. “It simply came to our notice then. It still brings me tears whenever I think about it. “

Isaacs urged people to keep physical distance, wear masks and wash their hands. He said he knows it is difficult to avoid meeting relatives or friends.

“But I can tell you an alternative,” she said, “this way is more boring.”

Click on the video below to hear Isaacson in his own words.

Coronavirus in Reg Reagan: Know the latest | Live map tracker |Text alerts | Newsletter

– Amy Green; [email protected]; o_aimee