The use of the Universal Mask in Covidovirus, a disease caused by corovirus during the coming spring in the United States, could have prevented the deaths of nearly 1,000,000 people, scientists reported Friday.
Dr. Scott, Scientific Adviser to the President. Scott W. Following Atlas’s claim that the mask is ineffective, in a tweet later taken to spread false information via Twitter. On Wednesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a new guideline recommending the use of masks in public settings, including public transport.
The increase in infections, in part due to neglect of safety precautions, has led to drowning in most of the hospitals in the country. More than 75,000 new cases were reported in the United States on Thursday, the largest daily in the country since the outbreak began. Eight states set single-day case records.
That number is likely to continue during the fall and winter, with cases and deaths steadily rising through January and remaining high after that issue, said Christopher Murray, director and lead author of the Institute for Health Mics Tricks and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Report.
“We strongly believe that we are going to have a very fierce winter season,” said Dr. Murray said.
A new study published in the journal Nature Medicine also gave an approximate estimate of the epidemic plague in the United States: 500,000 people died by March 2021, even after re-establishing social distance mandates in most states.
Other experts warned that, like any model, the new estimate is based on many assumptions and should not be seen as a prediction.
“It is not a prediction or a prediction, because we will be able to deduce this number from existence,” said Shweta Bansal, an infectious disease model at Georgetown University, who was not involved in the new work.
Instead, she said, the model should be seen as a “sophisticated thought experiment” whose findings could significantly change if people change their behavior.
“I want people to see this study as a kind of action call, a kind of conscious call, especially for those who are not convinced by the epidemic,” he said.
Ashleigh Tuite, a university infectious disease model, added that epidemiological models that try to predict future trends, such as the new one, are particularly prone to errors. Toronto.
However, she and others said that if current trends continue, the number seems reasonable, with approximate estimates of tolls by March 2021.
Dr. Murray and his colleagues analyzed the number of cases, test rates, mask use, and cellphone data to estimate people’s activity from the first case reported in each state by September 21. They then projected mortality for each state by March 2021, with or without an order for social distance and the use of masks.
If several states continue to play a commanding role instead, the team found, the death toll could reach a peak of one million by February 28, with one-third occurring in California, Florida and Pennsylvania.
More rationally, states could re-establish the distance command when the daily death rate reaches the eight million death threshold. According to this model, 511,373 people will die by the end of February 2021.
D models Murray said other models do not look to the future or take into account the weather, and underestimate the number of deaths, which d result. Murray said.
“Such models” feed on highly science-based ideas that spread there that the epidemic is over, or worst of all behind us. “And that’s a very risky strategy.”
But Dr. Dr. Murray’s model Dell no longer considers the treatment available to hospitalized people, he added.
For example, mortality among hospitalized patients dropped from 25.6 percent in the spring to 7.6 percent, in one study.
D research. Bansal said the new research is based on other flawed assumptions. This model provides estimates for individual states but does not take into account age or location-based variation in states, and is based on limited testing and death data from the early part of the epidemic.
Because of these and other assumptions, the estimated number of deaths is the best estimate. Nevertheless, this figure illustrates the need for individual and population-wide precautions.
Dr. Murray and his colleagues demonstrated that the use of masks, in particular, has a significant effect, reducing the risk of infection at both the individual and population levels.
As of September 20, less than half of Americans report that they always wear a mask. But according to a new analysis, the use of regular masks by 12 percent of the population will save 129,574 lives. “By March 2021, deaths, deaths and deaths can be prevented by the use of regular masks by only 85 per cent of Americans,” said Dr. Murray. Murray said.
“Increasing the use of masks is one of the best strategies we currently have in order to delay the imposition of social distance and all its economic effects and save lives.”
Mask orders and fines for not wearing a mask could increase the number of people wearing facial inks, he suggested.
The mask’s estimate is also likely to be rough, but nonetheless, Dr. Tuitt said, “It’s really important to find out the quality, which is its effect, and how that effect is much less messy than lockdown or other.” More restricted types of interventions. “
An infectious disease specialist at Emory University in Atlanta, Dr. Carlos del Rio said the mask is an effective and inexpensive tool to prevent the spread of the virus and, like many others in the epidemic, has unfortunately become politicized.
“If you wear a mask, you’re a Democrat,” he said. “If you don’t wear a mask, you’re a Republican. And I think that’s completely wrong. “
He added, “The fact that we continue to make masks on such a political issue is really upsetting,” because quite frankly, I don’t want people to die. “
