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Scientists say the UK could see an estimated 120,000 new coronavirus deaths in a second wave of infections this winter.
When asked to model the “reasonable” worst-case scenario, they suggest a range between 24,500 and 251,000 virus-related deaths in hospitals alone, peaking in January and February.
To date, there have been 44,830 official deaths in the UK, but this has slowed down to just 1,100 in July.
The estimate does not take into account any blockage, treatment or vaccine.
And scientists say: “The risk … could be reduced if we take immediate action.”
The report, requested by the UK’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, underlines that there is still a high degree of uncertainty about how the coronavirus pandemic will unfold this winter.
But research suggests that the virus may survive longer in colder conditions and is more likely to spread when people spend more time indoors.
And experts are concerned that the NHS is under extreme pressure, not only because of the coronavirus resurgence, but also because of seasonal flu and an accumulation of regular non-coronavirus workload.
The health service is already severely disrupted after the first wave of the pandemic, with a waiting list that could reach 10 million by the end of this year, according to the report.
Professor Stephen Holgate, a respiratory specialist at Southampton University Hospital NHS Trust, who chaired the report, said: “This is not a prediction, but it is a possibility.
“The model suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter.”
“But the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately.”
With a relatively low number of coronavirus cases at the moment, “this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw us,” he added.
Less pessimistic winter scenarios are also possible, with thousands of coronavirus deaths.
The report makes clear that there is a high degree of uncertainty in the projected death figures.
It is not a prediction of what will happen, but of what could happen.
Researchers can model probable scenarios. But simulations are based on assumptions that don’t always play out in real life.
Slightly change any of the parameters and you will get very different projections.
However, the overall message is clear: Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Currently, deaths and cases of coronavirus in the UK have declined, giving the nation an opportunity to reflect and plan for a second wave.
Keeping infection rates low as Britain is released will be critical to managing the disease.
The virus is not gone. And we still don’t have a vaccine for it.
But there are things we can all do, including isolating and testing if we develop symptoms.
Co-author Professor Dame Anne Johnson of the Academy of Medical Sciences said: “Faced with these potential challenges, and after a year already difficult, it would be easy to feel hopeless and helpless.
“But this report shows that we can now act to change things for the better.”
Recommends:
- Increased ability of the test and trace program to cope with overlapping symptoms of coronavirus, influenza and other winter infections
- vaccinating more people against the flu
- Ensuring that hospitals and nursing homes have sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE)
- Create coronavirus-free zones in hospitals and residences to stop infections.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said planning was already underway to deal with the expected increase in demand on the NHS this winter.
The government had purchased enough flu vaccine to implement the “largest flu vaccine program in history” and was working to establish a coronavirus vaccination program in case a successful vaccine was found, he added.
A government statement said: “We remain vigilant and the government will ensure that we have the necessary resources to avoid a second spike that would overwhelm our NHS.”
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