People walk on August 18 in a stationary street market of Lourges, southern France.
Photographer: Christophe Simon / AFP via Getty Images
Photographer: Christophe Simon / AFP via Getty Images
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Coronavirus infections are on the rise again in Europe, but current data indicate that the outbreak is becoming less lethal.
Elevated tests catch the disease earlier, and unlike spikes in March and April – when the pandemic ripped through nursing homes – authorities are doing a better job of protecting the elderly and other vulnerable people, according to scientists.
France and Spain both took the highest number of new cases since April in the past week, while Italy reported its biggest increase since May and Germany’s daily rates have doubled in recent weeks.
Yet as the contagion spreads across the continent again, deaths die less dramatically – at least for now.
Less deadly
Mortality rates of Coronavirus as a percentage of cases have decreased
Source: European Center for Disease Prevention and Control
“Improved access to testing is probably the main reason, especially because people are becoming more aware of the symptoms,” he said. John Ford, a lecturer in public health at the University of Cambridge.
Many of the infections originate from younger people who travel and party during the summer holidays, and some of these cases have been asymptomatic. Better disease treatment and improved procedures for identifying Covid-related deaths also help reduce the death toll, Ford said.
With European countries slowly reopening their economies, including trips for green light in mid-June, officials have accelerated a flow as more people come into contact again. But after economies were decimated from lockdowns, they were reluctant to impose stricter restrictions on activity.
More testing
European countries have generally increased Covid-19 test rates
Source: European Center for Disease Prevention and Control
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who won plaudits for her handling of the initial phases of the pandemic, advised her peers to prevent renewed lockdowns and coordinate actions. The focus is instead on targeted measures such as increasing the use of face masks, restricting operations of bars and restaurants and requiring travelers to return from severely affected areas to quarantine or prove that they are not infected.
Read more: Merkel warns Europe against repaying new life Closed
Speedy drug trials may be partly responsible for the death rate left in control, with therapies such as the low cost, anti-inflammatory dexamethasone found to reduce the mortality of seriously ill Covid-19 patients.
A number of countries have also changed how deaths are calculated in recent weeks. The UK toll fell by more than 5,000 earlier this month after the government said a death toll would only be classified as Covid-related if the person died within 28 days of a positive test.
Death Rates
Coronavirus infection in Europe as a percentage of cases
Source: European Center for Disease Prevention and Control
Since infections in most European countries started to climb only days or a few weeks ago, deaths could also go up again. Given the delay between infection and death, key countries are not developing a false sense of security, he said Graham Cooke, a professor of infectious diseases at Imperial College London.
“There’s always a significant delay between a spike in cases and a spike in deaths, which is in the region of neighborhoods,” Cooke said. “It is possible that if more of the transmission is premature among younger groups, that there will be more of a delay before we see the rise in mortality.”
– With the help of Chris Reiter
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