Coronavirus spread in Michigan ‘slowly, controlled’, according to data

Nearly one month since our last report, Michigan has maintained its “medium” risk level for a coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, according to data from Covid Act Now.

The group of technologists, epidemiologists, health experts and public policy leaders at Covid Act Now identify each state’s risk level for the spread of COVID-19 – which has greatly improved in recent weeks, although some states still report significant increases in virus fallen and dead.

Like most other states, Michigan’s risk of spreading coronavirus has been steadily shifting due to fluctuating rates of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, contact trace, and more over the past several months.

On July 31, we reported that Michigan’s status had changed from ‘risk’ of an outbreak ‘to’ slow disease growth ‘. The state initially moved to a higher risk level on July 8 when COVID-19 case numbers increased and contact training across Michigan decreased.

The state has meanwhile maintained its average risk level and has even made some small improvements in key areas, according to Covid Act Now.

Infection rate

The data show that Michigan currently has an infection rate of 0.99 percent – meaning that every person infected with COVID-19 infects 0.99 other people. The current infection rate is an improvement from 1.14 on 8 July, 1.21 on 19 July and 1.06 on 31 July.

The state previously had even lower infection rates of 0.85 back in mid-June and 0.88 on 2 July.

Covid Act now considers an infection rate to be “critical” if it exceeds 1.4.

Detect contact

Although Michigan’s infection has diminished in recent weeks, unfortunately the amount of contact training has also been carried out by the state, according to the data.

Contact detection is cited by experts as a major factor in containing COVID-19, but the percentage of Michigan detection in Michigan has declined in recent months as virus cases increase across the state.

As of August 25, the state of Michigan reports a total of 98,439 COVID-19 cases and 6,417 deaths.

Cases increased Tuesday by 779. New cases have plateaued in the last two weeks, but daily COVID-19 case counts have increased at a higher rate since early July – specifically compared to numbers in June.

As of Wednesday, Covid Act Now reports that Michigan has been in contact with the detection of 30 percent of new COVID-19 cases within 48 hours of infection – which health care says is not enough to contain the virus. Experts recommend that at least 90 percent of new COVID-19 cases be detected within 48 hours to contain the virus.

While 30 percent is not ideal, it is a slight improvement from the state 29 percent of contact traces reported on July 31st.

“With 706 new daily cases on average, Michigan needs an estimated 3,530 contact tracers on staff to track each new case to a known case within 48 hours of detection,” the report reads. “According to our best available data, Michigan has 1,050 contact tracers, who meet 30% of these personnel requirements. With insufficient contacts for contact tracing, Michigan is unlikely to be able to identify and isolate disseminated diseases quickly enough to prevent new outbreaks. “

If the contact trace of a state falls below 20 percent, it is considered “low”, and if it falls below 7 percent, it is considered “critical”, according to the survey. Between 10 and 90 percent are considered “medium.”

The state had reportedly detected contact about 31 percent of new cases within 48 hours with effect from July 19th. Michigan’s contact tracking was 45 on July 8, 65 percent on July 2 and 100 percent on June 18.

According to the data, Michigan’s contact training fell to 25 percent in early August.

COVID-19 testing

Covid Act Now research shows that Michigan is still doing well with COVID-19 testing. The data indicate that Michigan has conducted widespread and aggressive COVID-19 testing and has a “low” positive test rate of 2.3 percent – a slight increase of 2.2 percent on July 31, but still reported a decrease of 2.7 percent on July 19. .

Michigan’s positive COVID-19 test rate had risen steadily after dramatic falls in May and early June. The state saw its lowest positive test rate – 0.9 percent – on June 10th. Since then, the positive test percentage climbed to 2.7 percent until it started falling again on July 22, the data show.

The positive test percentage is considered “medium” instead of low if it exceeds 3 percent. Between 10-19 percent is considered high, and between 20-100 percent is considered critical.

Virus hospitals

Hospitals in Michigan may also “likely treat a new wave of COVID” because current ICU vacancies are enough to “pick up” a new wave of infected patients. Hospitalization has increased somewhat in the last month, but remains lower than in April.

The data do not predict that hospitals in Michigan will be overloaded within the next 30 days, as long as the current reopening plans are maintained.

COVID-19 cases per population

Another important indicator used by Covid Act Now to identify a state’s risk of spreading viruses is the amount of confirmed new cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

On Wednesday, data show that Michigan has an average of 7.1 new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day for every 100,000 residents – an improvement of 7.3 on July 31. If this trajectory continues, the group estimates that about 12.9 percent of the population of Michigan COVID would contract -19 next year.

COVID-19 per province

Covid Act Now also breaks down data at the provincial level, assigning a coronavirus risk level for each province in the state. A majority of Michigan counties are considered a “medium” risk for a COVID-19 outbreak, according to the data.

Previously, a significant number of Michigan counties were categorized as “at risk” for a COVID-19 outbreak or experiencing an “active or threatening outbreak” (marked by the colors orange and red, respectively).

Most counties now experience “controlled disease growth,” which is largely due to low COVID-19 infection rates, low positive test rates, and low new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people.

Berrien, Huron, Iosco, Lenawee, Livingston, Oakland, St. Clair and Wayne counties have all been relocated to a lower risk level after being marked as high risk or experiencing an active or threatening outbreak.

Some counties are considered “on track to contain COVID”, including Alpena, Lake and Sanilac provinces.

Menominee and Isabella counties are now the only two Michigan counties that are considered Wednesday as an active or threatening outbreak.

• Even more detailed COVID-19 provincial data has been broken down for all U.S. counties by Covid Act Now in collaboration with the Harvard Global Health Institute and dozens more public health researchers and officials. Click here to view.

Covid Act No previously said Michigan’s COVID-19 readiness met international standards in June or returned above the group’s “key metrics.” Now the readiness of the state meets the international standards. ‘

Coronavirus response

Most of Michigan is considered in phase four of Gov.’s reopening plan. Gretchen Whitmer, which allows some businesses and activities to be resumed with restrictions. In recent weeks, the governor has ordered that face covers be worn in public spaces and some indoor food be closed to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Whitmer has consistently reiterated that the state’s economy will slowly reopen and in line with data regarding the virus and its spread. On Tuesday during a press conference, Whitmer said she is “not being bullied” in reopening businesses that are still closed due to the pandemic.

“I will not be bullied into making that decision,” Whitmer said. ‘I will follow the science. I will be collaborating with Dr. (Joneigh) Khaldun, but we are looking very closely at the companies that have been closed for the time being to determine if those protocols are there and if the averages of seven days and the number of positive cases per million per day would support some more to do on those fronts. ”

Khaldun, the chief medical officer and deputy deputy director of health for the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, updated the state-of-state numbers during the press conference Tuesday. The Detroit region still sees the highest rates, with three other regions reporting more than 50 cases per million people per day.

More: Michigan top medical official updates on how COVID-19 cases are trending in all 8 regions

Michigan is one of 18 states marked at medium risk for a COVID-19 outbreak by Covid Act Now. Only one state, Vermont, is considered on track as the virus. The majority of the country – 29 states – is considered at high risk for a COVID-19 outbreak.

Only two states – North Dakota and Mississippi – are considered an active or threatening outbreak.

Read more: COVID-19 in the US: Tracking of states with the most cases, dead on August 25th

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