Larimer County is “loosening up” on the coronavirus, and the result has director of public health Tom Gonzales concerned.
Larimer County hit a single-day record with at least 35 new cases of coronavirus on Sunday, largely boosted by the July 4 meetings, Gonzales said. The county has identified 15 or more new cases in seven of the past 14 days. Residents’ reports of compliance issues covering their faces have nearly tripled in recent weeks. And coronavirus cases among people ages 15-24 have accounted for more than a third of the total over the past month as the start of the new school year approaches.
Gonzales classifies the current risk of coronavirus spread as “medium to medium-high,” an increase he attributes to decreased adherence to social distancing and wearing of masks as people spend more time outside their homes. Some residents may be tired after months of social estrangement or become complacent due to the community’s success in limiting the spread of the infection in May and June, Gonzales said.
The increasing number of daily cases is of particular concern because it can lead to an increase in hospitalizations, Gonzales said. Typically, there is a 14 to 16 day delay between a person’s exposure to the coronavirus and their hospitalization, if they develop severe or life-threatening symptoms, making cases on the weekend of July 4 unlikely to affect the hospitalization bill until this weekend or next week.
Sunday’s case record was also one for Larimer County’s variation of state-level restrictions, allowing up to 60% capacity in restaurants with outdoor seating and larger public gatherings with social distancing, among others. relaxed restrictions. If the new county daily case count exceeds 25 for three days in a 14-day period, the variance will be automatically rescinded. But it is not too late to avoid a raise, Gonzales said.
“My message is: we have to go back to the way we were doing things in May and June, because if these numbers continue to rise, we could lose our variation, and we don’t want that,” he said. .
Community members should spend their days assuming they have coronaviruses, Gonzales said. That means washing your hands before and after leaving your home and after touching surfaces in public, staying 6 feet away from other people, and using a face covering in a space where it is difficult to keep your distance.
Gathering in groups of less than 10 people is fine as long as you know everyone in your group and everyone is wearing face covers and keeping their distance, added health department spokeswoman Katie O’Donnell.
Despite initially mixed messages from global and national public health officials, it is now clear that people who do not show symptoms of coronavirus can transmit the infection, Gonzales said.
“If we all assumed that we could potentially have the virus, then the prevalence would go back to where we were in June,” when new cases were consistently less than 10 per day and hospitalizations at one point reached zero, he said.
He suspects that the asymptomatic spread is closely related to the increase in cases among people under the age of 25. People over the age of 65 or who have health conditions that make them susceptible to serious illness have been doing “a great job” by staying home and keeping their distance. From others, Gonzales said, Larimer’s hospitalizations have been so low compared to a peak of 54 on April 22.
As of Tuesday afternoon, 11 people were hospitalized for coronavirus in Larimer County (the county classifies having fewer than 30 patients as “low risk”), and both hospital capacity (58%) and ICU capacity (47%) were below the reference risk of 70%.
But for younger people, “the belief is: ‘Oh, I’m fine, even if I had it, it might show no symptoms or those symptoms might be very mild,'” Gonzales said.
“With that age group specifically, where it really presents a challenge is that they show no symptoms, or very few symptoms,” he said. “They are outside and enjoying life, but they are extending it if they are not wearing face covers and are keeping their distance.”
And with that spread comes infection from older people who may be susceptible to serious illness, he added.
Plus: COVID-19 Tracking in Colorado: Larimer County and State Case, Death and Hospital Data
The increase in infection among young people comes as schools and colleges prepare to reopen in August. Gonzales said the county is working with the Poudre School District, Colorado State University and other educational institutions to finalize the learning plans in the fall. Those plans should take into account the risk of the coronavirus spreading not only among students but also among teachers, staff, such as custodians and maintenance workers, and students’ families. He said the plans will include reversal and closure options that could take effect if there is an unmitigated spread within schools or a local increase in hospitalizations.
CSU is already planning to go completely remote after the fall break until the end of the semester. PSD recently announced a 100% virtual option for students whose families do not feel safe sending them back to the classroom, and if the students return in person, they can be divided into groups “A” and “B” who attend class every other day.
“Even if a school is 90-95% open, it will be very different than last year,” said Gonzales.
Gonzales attributed the escalation case count for residents of all ages to a combination of increased spread in the community and increased testing and contact tracing.
The number of daily coronavirus tests conducted in Larimer County has steadily increased since March, reaching a record high of 907 tests on July 8. The average number of tests performed per day increased approximately 27%, from 438 tests per day to 558 tests daily, between the first week of June and the first week of July.
The percentage of positive cases is also increasing, although it is still below the 10% mark that would denote a high risk and cause the state to rescind the county variation if it is maintained. The average positive rate was 1.7% between June 19 and 25 and reached 3.5% between July 7 and 13. A positive rate in the range of 5-6% or more would be cause for concern, Gonzales said, because an increasing rate of positive tests means that the spread of the virus is outpacing the increase in testing.
Every time a new case is confirmed in Larimer County, the county contact search team tries to contact everyone who has had recent prolonged contact. The team then encourages those contacts to get tested, even if they show no symptoms.
In the spring, when people spent more time at home, a positive case often led to two or three phone calls. Now a positive case often leads to 8 to 10 phone calls.
Plus: Map: analysis of coronavirus cases, deaths by county in county
Increased contact volume means more exposure in the community and makes it difficult for contact trackers to reach everyone, Gonzales said. Sometimes they don’t have the correct contact information for everyone they need to call, and not everyone answers their phones.
The increase in testing is also beginning to wear on county resources and healthcare providers, resulting in a longer wait for coronavirus test results. Test results returned as soon as 24 hours in June, but now take 3-5 days to process due to problems with reagent supply and high volume of tests, Gonzales told county commissioners Tuesday by the morning.
To effectively contact trace, county staff needs results within two days of testing, he said.
All of these challenges put Larimer County in a vulnerable position toward fall, when temperatures will drop and people will spend more time indoors, Gonzales said. The risk of spread is greater in colder and drier climates.
“As we enter autumn, we will have to be even more aware of things,” he said. “This is a marathon, and we are not even halfway there. We will have to stay strong, work together, support each other and take all preventive measures so that we do not have a big increase this fall or even earlier if our numbers continue to rise. ”
Jacy Marmaduke covers the accountability of the Colorado government. Follow her on Twitter @jacymarmaduke. Support stories like this by purchasing a digital subscription to the Coloradoan.
