Coronavirus in Scotland: ‘Virus transmission frequency’ could increase


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The R-number in Scotland could now be as high as 1.3, Sturgeon said

Scotland’s infection rate could increase after a number of small clusters were discovered.

Orkney health authorities have received five positive cases, while an Aberdeenshire primary school was closed when two staff members tested positive.

A cluster in Glasgow is linked to high school students.

Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the reproduction rate of the virus – the R-number – could now be above one.

Scientists believe that an R-number higher than one is dangerous because it means that the number of cases can in theory spread exponentially.

  • Coronavirus: What is the R-number and how is it calculated?
  • Coronavirus in Scotland – latest updates

This is because each person with the virus will infect more than one other person on average.

Ms Sturgeon said the top rating of the R-number in Scotland “last week could be as high as 1.3”. The figure was previously estimated to be between 0.6 and one.

But the prime minister claimed that last week alone there were thought to be over 250 infected people in Scotland.

She said this meant that “” was not the same level of worry as you would have had back in May when prevalence was much higher “.

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The Prime Minister said she was particularly concerned about the effect that house parties have on the spread of the virus

She added: “If the prevalence across the country is low, the R-number will be disproportionately affected by outbreaks on the scale of the one in Aberdeen.

“While we should not be alarmed, it is equally important that we are in no way selfish.

“Covid is still present and it will spread really fast if given a chance.”

Chamber parties

Ms Sturgeon said the data suggested there was a particular problem with house parties, urging people to comply with the rules about visiting other people’s homes.

A total of 47 new cases have been confirmed across the country since Wednesday.

Ms Sturgeon said 26 of the new cases were in the Grampian health care area – although it was not clear how many were linked to the ongoing outbreak in Aberdeen which so far has seen 182 people test positive.

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Health officials are dealing with a cluster of nine confirmed cases on Orkney

Meanwhile, officials say the five people who tested positive in Orkney worked together on a fishing boat before traveling to homes across the islands.

Possible links between the Orkney cluster and the Aberdeen outbreak are being investigated.

A “household cluster” is being investigated in Peterhead after staff at Peterhead Central tested primarily positive.

It was later confirmed that a second employee was also infected.

And a cluster in the Baillieston area of ​​Glasgow now has 11 positive cases, including a number of students at Bannerman High School.

However, officials have insisted that none of the students have attended the school since it reopened on Wednesday, and all are self-isolating.

The Prime Minister said that these types of clusters were “inevitable”, and objected that the test and protection system of contact tracing worked as intended.