Coronavirus deal key for Republicans who protect the majority of the Senate

Vulnerable Republicans for reelection face high unemployment and serious budget deficits in their home states, giving White House negotiators and Senate leaders a majority Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellCoronavirus talks collapse as negotiators fail to reach deal Pelosi, Schumer says White House refuses T coronavirus deal COVID-19 bill limitation liability would hit the wrong balance MAY (R-Ky.) More incentive to cut a relief deal to protect their Senate majority.

Interviews between Secretary of Treasury Steven MnuchinSteven Terner MnuchinTrump completes executive orders on economics but will not sign yet Overnight health care: Trump will take executive action after colonial virus talks crash | Fax official says he would resign if political pressure on Coronavirus talks collapses if negotiators can no longer reach, Chief of Staff of the White House Mark MeadowsMark Randall MeadowsTrump completes executive orders on economics but will not sign on yet On The Money: Five July takeaways from jobs report Overight Health Care: Trump will take executive action after coronavirus talks collapse | Fax official says he would resign if politics pressed MORE and Democratic leaders fell apart Friday afternoon, but Senate Republicans still feel pressure to reach agreement, even if President TrumpDonald John TrumpJoe Arpaio loses bid for his old position as Sheriff Trump blames opinion that Russia denigrates Biden: ‘No one is harder on Russia than I am’ Trump truncates executive orders over economy but will not yet reportthreatens to use executive action instead.

Democrats said they are still open to negotiations, arguing that a two-party bill signed into law would be far more effective than a series of executive orders.

A compromise measure that includes state support and improved unemployment benefits would boost GOP operations in places like Colorado and Arizona, two states where Democrats have the best chance of defeating Republicans in November.

In Colorado, unemployment was 10 percent in June, the latest state-level data available. Arizona’s was slightly higher at 10.5 percent. The national rate, as of July, is 10.2 percent.

Iowa, Maine and North Carolina – where GOP senators are neck and neck in interviews with Democratic challengers – are also facing serious economic challenges as a result of the coronavirus recession.

In addition, these urban field states are trying to navigate budget deficits that could lead to a wave of state and local government redundancies in the fall, and eat into overall economic growth, as it did during the Great Recession.

With expired unemployment benefits and expired moratorium on evictions, invaders like Sen. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyFrom a Republican Donor to the First Chamber GOP: Eliminate Punishment or Risk Voters Alienate Hillicon Valley: Facebook Bans Pro-Trump PAC Advertising | Uber reports a big drop in revenue | US Offers M Reward for Interference at Election Info Senate Adopts Legislation to Ban TikTok on Federal Devices MORE (R-Ariz.) Are now under increasing pressure to supply for their constituencies.

“It’s really critical to the survival of all elected officials,” said Thomas Volgy, a professor of political science at the University of Arizona and former Democratic mayor of Tucson.

“Sen. McSally is caught in an unbelievable vice, because if she deviates from the position of the White House, she is endangering a large percentage of Republican support. But if she does not do that, she will endanger a very significant amount of independent support, ‘he said.

Polls let McSally leave Democratic challenger Mark Kelly by an average of more than 6 points.

“The airwaves in Tucson have been flooded with advertisements encouraging the senator to support local jurisdictions,” Volgy added.

Arizona is facing a $ 864 million drop in tax revenue this year and a $ 873 million drop in 2021, but Volgy said that does not address the full extent of budget problems.

In Tucson, the University of Arizona, the city’s largest employer, is looking for a possible $ 500 million budget deficit, according to Volgy. University of Arizona President Robert Robbins announced a $ 280 million budget gap earlier this year.

In Colorado, where Sen. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerFrom a Republican Donor to the First Chamber GOP: Abolishing Marital Punishment as Risk Voters Alien. The U.S. military has options against China McConnell goes hands-off over relief bill for coronavirus MEI (R) traps in the question papers to Democrat John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperRepublicans play awkward defense Obama announces first wave of 2020 encouragement to Gardner says GOP commission should stop airing attack ad on opponent Hickenlooper MORE, state lawmakers earlier this year made sharp cuts to colleges and universities, such as K-12 education, to come up with a projected $ 3 trillion deficit.

The state is facing a $ 968 million revenue cut by 2020, a figure that is projected to balloon $ 2.6 billion next year, according to the nonpartisan Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.

Maine had lower unemployment rates than most states in June, at 6.6 percent, but still has a budget deficit of $ 1.4 billion over the next three years.

Democratic Gov. Janet MillsJanet MillsTrump Expected to Visit Maine Despite Concerns of Governor Firefighter Death After Building Explosion in Maine Maine Makes It Possible to Vote Without Governor’s Signature on Wednesday called for pruning cuts, state officials urged to identify 10 percent reductions.

‘I think that’s a pretty big amount Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsFrom a Republican Donor to the First Chamber of Deputies GOP: Eliminate marriage punishments as risk alienates voters The Hill’s Campaign Report: Trump’s Attempt at Field Battle Ohio Overwhelmed by Coronavirus. New polls show tight races for Graham, McConnell MORE, ”Said Mark Brewer, a professor of political science at the University of Maine, referring to one of the most vulnerable GOP senators. Collins faces a formidable challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon.

“The support to state and local governments is much greater [issue] over here. If it is not at the top of people’s radar at the moment, it will be soon, ‘he said. “At some point before November, the pain here in Maine, and really across the country, will be pretty intense.”

“Sara Gideon and her supporters will follow Susan Collins for that and some voters will be sympathetic to those claims,” ​​he said.

A Quinnipiac University publication published Thursday put Gideon ahead of Collins by 4 points.

Janet Martin, a government professor at Bowdoin College, said there was “quite a bit of pressure” on Collins to deliver another relief package.

“There are companies that continue to do business,” Martin said. “Everyone in the state of Maine is affected by their own job loss when a business closes.”

Collins, one of the lead authors of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which was signed into law in late March, hails the small business lending initiative as a “lifeline” for Maine businesses. She said 76 percent of small businesses in Maine accept PPP funds.

But now many small businesses accepting federal loans are running out of money and need another round of PPP support, which is currently being held up by impatience over the size of the next relief bill.

The very economic picture in the battlefield states has called on Democratic leaders to take a hard line in negotiations with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.

Trump, whose average approval rating is just over 40 percent nationally, and Republican House officials, whose selectivity is tied to Trump’s performance, both need a deal as relief of some sort to show that they are responding to the crisis.

But strategists warn that taking too tight a line in negotiations for both sides could backfire.

“The most important thing is to get a package through – period. That is far more important than the details of what is in it for most voters, “said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

‘Who knows how much more time we have with this virus? But if you look at the 1918 flu pandemic as an example, we may not even be halfway there at this point, “he added.” In an emergency, you spend what you need to try to tackle the problem and then out. to find out how late you have to pay for it. “

There is less pressure on Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiDemocratic convention lineup to include Ocasio-Cortez, Clinton, Warren: reports Trump completes executive orders on economy but will not sign yet (D-Calif.) To protect what is seen as a secure Democratic majority, as Leader of the Senate minority Charles SchumerChuck SchumerPostal Service says it has lost .2 billion over a three-month period A stimulus of three trillion dollars, but Charles Schumer for sustainable energy – leading companies want to change that Democrats try to force Trump to produce medical supplies MORE (DN.Y.), who can play offensively against 23 Republicans of the House of Representatives for re-election, while only having to worry about a dozen on the Democratic side.

In North Carolina, where the June unemployment rate was 7.6 percent, the federal $ 600-a-week improvement in state unemployment benefits passed by Congress in March helped state-wide deficits. That federal plus-expiration expired in late July.

“There were a lot of stories in the media here about the shortcomings of the stateless unemployment system,” said Andrew J. Taylor, a professor of political science at North Carolina State University.

The failure of another round of federal aid will certainly be used as political ammunition by Cal Cunningham, the Democratic challenger to Sen. Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisFrom a Republican Donor to the First Chamber GOP: Abolishing marriage or risking alienating voters (RN.C.).

A bilingual agreement would allow Tillis to argue that he provided crucial resources to his constituencies.

“If there is no agreement, Cunningham will follow suit. If so, Tillis will state it as adequate and Cunningham will argue that it is inadequate. It will play a role, ”Taylor said.

Cunningham has opened a 9-point lead over Tillis, according to the interviewing average RealClearPolitics.

McConnell and other GOP leaders signaled this past week that they are committed to passing on another relief package, although talks between Democrats and the White House collapsed on Friday.

“It is on the side of both Democrats and Republicans, at least most Republicans, and not every single one, that we come to an outcome because the economy needs an extra impetus. is until we get the vaccine, “McConnell said Thursday on CNBC.

McConnell has threatened threatened introductory senators to return to their home states to campaign this week. But the leader has advised her to be ready to return to Washington quickly in case an agreement is reached.