Delays in cancer diagnosis and treatment due to the coronavirus could cause thousands of excess deaths in the UK in a year, research suggests.
Scientists suggest that there could be at least 7,000 additional deaths, but in the worst case that number could be as high as 35,000.
There are concerns that routine exams, urgent referrals, and treatments have been delayed or canceled.
NHS England said it was working hard to restore services.
The scientists examined data from eight hospital trusts and shared their findings exclusively with BBC Panorama.
The study, conducted by DATA-CAN, Health Care Research Hub (HDR UK) for Cancer, modeled different results depending on how long it takes for services to return to normal levels.
In the worst case, if the delays continue, there could be an additional 35,000 cancer deaths within a year.
Professor Mark Lawler, Scientific Director of DATA-CAN, told BBC Panorama: “The initial data we obtained was very worrying for us.
“As an anecdote, people told us there were problems, but I think the most important thing was to be able to have routine data on hospital trusts.”
“Obviously scientists like to be right about their analysis, but I hope I’m wrong about that,” he said.
Cancer referrals decreased by 45%
It was the job of Peter Johnson, the National Cancer Clinical Director NHS England, to develop the guidelines on cancer treatment during Covid-19.
“We are working as quickly as possible to re-unite services, restore capacity and, in fact, build more, so that we can deal with people who have not been diagnosed during the time that services have been running below 100%, “he told BBC Panorama.
“I hope we get back to where we need to be by the end of the year.”
The NHS figures show that there was a 60% drop in people who visited their GP and were referred for testing in April.
“There is a significant cohort of people who are very concerned about approaching the NHS, because approaching the NHS means ‘I am going to get Covid and therefore I am going to get very, very sick,'” he said. NHS GP Dr. Gary Marlowe.
Urgent cancer referral rates were 45% lower than pre-emergency levels in late May, the latest research from HDR UK, shared with Panorama, showed.
‘Inactive’ radiotherapy machines
“The guidelines for radiation therapy and Covid-19 advised people to delay and avoid radiation therapy in some circumstances,” clinical oncologist Professor Pat Price told BBC Panorama.
“I think it was a very high risk strategy,” he said.
Professor Price said that there were radiotherapy machines in some hospitals “inactive that could have saved lives.”
“It has been safe to give radiation therapy during Covid-19, we know that now,” he said.
“The machines are here, but we have not been allowed to turn them on properly.
Professor Pat Price with Deborah
Johnson of NHS England said: “What we were concerned about doing, when the virus was increasing very rapidly in the population, was making sure that we could strike the right balance between the risk of contracting the virus and the risk of cancer from people get worse.
“And in particular, the risks and benefits of things like chemotherapy where, if chemotherapy isn’t absolutely crucial, but it could be dangerous in terms of increasing your risk of coronavirus.”
“This was not a type of police attempt that should receive treatment and who should not, but rather an attempt to try to help people think clearly.”
You can see BBC Panorama’s’Britain’s cancer crisis Monday, July 6 at 7:30 pm on BBC One, or later on BBC iPlayer. You can also find additional content at podcast You, Me & the Big C.
