Coronavirus cases in California are emerging: When will the spike end?

Coronavirus cases in California are now increasing as the total number detected since the start of the pandemic approaches 330,000. Of these, about 45% were reported in the last month alone.

As the virus spreads, the number of seriously ill patients increases, with hospitalizations up to 38% in the past two weeks. The death toll, which was relatively flat in May and June, rose nearly 20% in July, according to state data. Of California’s 58 counties, 30 have landed on the state’s watch list for further spread. In the Bay Area, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marín, Napa, Santa Clara, Sonoma and Solano are all on the list of jurisdictions monitored by the state.

Experts don’t pinpoint a single cause of the increase, but instead say it’s the result of a combination of everything from the reopening of the economy to Memorial Day protests and festivities, to people holding indoor gatherings and they don’t wear masks.

When will there be an end to the increase in cases in California?

UC Berkeley Professor of Infectious Diseases Dr. John Swartzberg believes there is hope that cases will drop in August if residents wear masks and follow public health orders with surveillance. The state has helped combat the increase by taking steps to encourage social distancing and has marked reopening plans. Governor Gavin Newsom has ordered the closure of more indoor businesses in counties that are on the state’s watch list for further spread of the virus.

But it will take time to see the effects of these efforts. The virus has an incubation period of about two weeks, and after one or two cycles, or two to four weeks, the California curve could begin to decline, Swartzberg said.

“I think people are beginning to understand that we cannot do what we did in May and hope that things will improve,” he said. “People are beginning to recognize that this is going to be a long journey. We are in the second inning of a nine-inning game. I would not be surprised if with interventions we start to see things improve in August, not dramatically better, but a little better, that we will stop seeing these dramatic increases that are devastating. “

Dr. George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology at the University of California at San Francisco, said “maybe” we will see a recession soon, but he doesn’t expect that.

“If we get away with it on July 4 and people are behaving, there are more masks and more social distancing, we should start to see a slowdown here this week, but I think that is an illusion,” he said. “There is no data to suggest anything other than to go up.”

Rutherford said Southern California and the Central Valley, especially Latino and agricultural communities, are seeing the most severe spread in the state. Outbreaks in the prison system have also been a problem.

“I think the real question is how to stop transmission in low-income communities,” said Rutherford. “Are you doing more testing in heavily Latino neighborhoods? Where are you going to quarantine? What will you do to supplement your income? Where will the food come from? That’s a complicated mix of services. San Francisco, but in the San Joaquin Valley there is more work to do. “

If there is a break in August, it may not last long. Fall will present new challenges with more people returning to work and some children returning to school, although many districts, such as San Diego and Los Angeles, are beginning to make announcements that the school year will begin with distance learning models.

“There are great social changes that will happen in September, and that is the school, and that will disturb the system,” said Swartzberg. “We are also going to have the system disturbed locally with fires. The fire season is forecast to last until Thanksgiving. We are going to be inhaling particles in the fall. In November the flu begins to appear. The flu reaches its zenith. Typically in January and February, we will see that influenza begins to improve in March and April.

“This is the landscape. I don’t think we have anything to look forward to that is terribly positive, except perhaps August if we behave better.”

The pandemic path has often been compared to a wave that would slow down in the summer and then a second wave would hit in the fall. Swartzberg said this is a wrong metaphor and led people to think that the virus could go away in the summer.

“I think we could have posed this problem incorrectly,” he said. “We never finished the first wave. What we are seeing is a continuation of the first wave. We were able to alter the trajectory of the first wave because in the Bay Area we acted early. We thought we got over it in March and April and everything was going to be Okay. But then we went back to trying to live like before. “

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Amy Graff is the SFGATE News Editor. Email him: [email protected].