When it comes to testing COVID-19, let’s say the NCAA tried it. In his long-awaited publication of the minimum testing guidelines, he suggested that soccer players take one test per week at least 72 hours before a game.
Good effort, NCAA.
Try to count the ways that a soccer player, or any athlete, can have fun, go out, relate, socialize, and associate with other humans over a three-day period before a game on Saturday. In other words, particularly at university, there are endless ways to spread or become infected with COVID-19.
“Testing once a week with a response time of up to 72 hours definitely leaves a big gap through which a case can sneak in,” said Zachary Binney, an epidemiologist at Emory University in Atlanta. “That makes me very nervous, particularly in areas with many cases in the community.”
Lately, there are many of them, particularly in the South, which continues to be an epicenter of an increase in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations. The cases have reached a record high in the past two weeks in 31 states.
The 2020 college football season continues to hang in the balance. The Ivy League and several other FCS conferences have already pushed their seasons up to at least the spring of 2021 if they are played. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have been moved to conference-only times for 2020.
The SEC, ACC and Big 12 are deciding what to do on schedule with a decision expected in late July.
With cases skyrocketing across the country, testing once a week with a 72-hour window to start seems barely the answer, even if it’s just NCAA guidelines.
We are approaching a turning point for college football. What is the risk tolerance of the game?
“Where’s the panic button?” asked Dr. Michael Saag, an infectious disease expert at the UAB Faculty of Medicine. “Where’s the amount of positive evidence that makes management say, ‘OK, do we have to cancel this week’s game?'”
This is not to mock the NCAA’s minimum standards. They are well intentioned but certainly not enforceable. For some smaller schools, testing once a week may not be affordable.
Experts agree that testing at least twice a week would be ideal. Even better, try Friday night or Saturday morning (before a Saturday game) with the ability to get a quick change in results.
On their return to the game, the professional leagues are testing more often … because they can.
The NFL, for example, is configured to enact daily tests until positive cases reach a threshold of less than 5%; then it will go to tests every other day.
Testing procedures for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and other leagues are also reviewed through the player unions.
College athletes are told what the testing procedures will be.
“Twenty four hours [before a game] it is the ideal, and every campus should strive to achieve it, “Saag said.” In that case, it means that each campus must have access to tests with a quick response. That is probably not true for all campuses. “
Why did all this take so long, anyway? Most teams start fall camp the first week of August.
The NCAA protocols, Binney said, could have been issued before June 1 when the players began to return to campus.
“Better late than never,” he said, “but if you knew you were going to put together a document like this, why didn’t you do it before the students went back to practicing and had all these outbreaks?”
The routine towards a season seems endless. The teams returned to those voluntary trainings on June 1. There were positive outbreak peaks. At least eight programs have paused workouts.
All this highlights the truest conclusion of the summer: nothing happens until the risk of coronavirus is mitigated.
“Unfortunately, the data points in the wrong direction,” NCAA President Mark Emmert said last week. “If there are going to be college sports in the fall, we need to better manage the pandemic.”
NCAA standards state that anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 with symptoms must wait 72 hours after recovery to participate again.
Those who have a high-risk exposure, defined as being within 6 feet of a person who tests positive for the virus for at least 15 minutes, should be quarantined for 14 days, whether they test positive or not.
Asymptomatic people, those who test positive but have no symptoms, should be isolated for 10 days.
“Where we see more setback is in our players who are positive but have no symptoms,” said a Power Five athletic director. “They don’t get it. They don’t get it. They’re young. They’re immature. They say, ‘I’m not sick. What do you mean I have to stay in my room?’ “
As mentioned, the guidelines do not take into account the schools in the lower divisions, which do not have the money to evaluate. Stetson University is a typical example. The private FCS university located in DeLand, Florida, had the players responsible for their own tests when they returned to campus.
As for testing during the season, a booster told coach Roger Hughes that he will fund it.
“These incoming freshmen didn’t have a prom, they didn’t have a graduation,” Hughes said. “I am really concerned, once they have freedom, they are going to want to exercise that freedom.”
The despair of the situation begins to manifest itself. The NCAA has made it clear why it believes we are in this situation: a lack of leadership.
“The federal government has not yet published a uniform federal guideline related to certain practices, such as diagnostic testing protocols …,” the statement read.
The biggest barrier to getting back to what we once considered normal is the lack of evidence and how we have handled COVID-19 as a nation.
“The biggest hurdle by far is our poor response to the virus. It is completely out of control in many of the areas that want to go back and play college football,” said Binney. “That will make it very difficult to prevent outbreaks from happening on college campuses.”
Much of the future of college football will be reflected in optics. It will be difficult to play in hot spots like Florida, Texas and California if the hospitals are overloaded.
Hope is not an effective strategy, but that seems to be the main policy around college football. Coaches, athletic directors and commissioners cannot predict outbreaks among their teams, much less in the country.
There is a ray of hope … if the public adopts guidelines for wearing masks and social distancing.
“We could see a recession in the new cases by the end of August, Saag said,” and I think we can all feel much more confident that the season will progress unabated. “
If not, next year has always been there as a last resort. One that is such a remote possibility that there is an in-game debate that college football stakeholders can simply clear up and head straight into the fall of 2021.
For now, several sources have raised concerns about declining test supplies in affected areas.
“The big problem will be the allocation of supplies and the political nature,” said a Power Five healthcare professional. “If we are using a lot of supplies because we are trying to keep football and people who are sick cannot be tested, politically, it is a terrible thing. As a medical provider, I tell you it is a terrible thing.”
Then there is the obvious: 22 sweaty players very close to 140 plays (more or less). Hitting each other literally is one of the most effective ways to spread the coronavirus. That’s not to mention the exposure of being on top of teammates, coaches, coaches and others on the sidelines.
The NCAA-recommended polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test is the gold standard. That involves the intrusive nasal swab you’ve probably seen on television.
The response time for a result varies from a few hours (for a professional sports team) to an additional week (for the general public). Access to that processing varies for universities.
Binney advises schools to invest in Quidel and Abbott rapid test machines.
“If college football wants to try playing this fall, I would definitely recommend that you consider whether you can buy one of the rapid test machines,” Binney said. “You can evaluate everyone on your team and everyone on the other team [shortly before a game]”
Layers of testing would help since no current test is 100% reliable. Schools could combine PCR tests with easily accessible paper strips, similar to a pregnancy test. Although the strips of paper have not been approved by the FDA, their efficacy has been observed. They were the subject of a recent New York Times opinion piece, “A simple and cheap way to control the coronavirus.”
But simply administering 120 PCR tests to a soccer team can cost more than $ 100,000. That begs the question: If cost is a factor, then what are you doing playing college football?
“Exactly,” said Binney. “I’ve been saying this for months. Don’t mix the best you can with what need what to do.”
Some schools will do more. Those in the lower divisions are likely to do less.
For now, that possible 72-hour gap in testing looks like a tunnel with no light at the end.
There is at least one more huge obstacle before the game returns.
Experts agree at an almost certain peak in cases where students return to campus, in the tens of thousands.
Binney sees more logic in boosting the season in early 2021. At that point, we could have been through an inevitable flu season.
“Say, ‘We can try to play in the spring,'” Binney said. “I’m not going to criticize you for that. As long as you do what everyone needs to do, and that’s staying flexible.”
“Recognize that your plans are temporary and dependent on the virus and our response to the virus.”
