Trump led all three states in 2016, with his most limited victory in any state from Michigan, which he garnered with only 10,704 votes. The poll results are among registered voters, but when looking at only those who say they are more likely to vote in this fall’s election, support for the two candidates remains the same.
Almost every recent high-quality poll from Florida and Michigan has shown Biden with an advantage there, while in Arizona, there has been a mix of leads and Biden results within the margin of error for each poll. The new CNN poll in Arizona shows Biden narrowly outside the poll’s margin of error. The Florida Quinnipiac University poll, released late last week, showed Biden with a double-digit lead there, larger than most other polls have found.
But it’s worth noting that recent Florida polls have been pretty consistent about Biden’s level of support in the state (Quinnipiac set it at 51%, just like the new CNN poll, while CBS News landed at 48%, and Fox News placed it at 49%), with greater variation in support for the President (46% in the new CNN poll, 42% on CBS News, 40% on Fox News, and 38% in the Quinnipiac poll).
But regarding the coronavirus and racial inequality, two issues that have dominated the national conversation in recent months, Trump’s disapproval is around 60% in all three states. In the coronavirus outbreak, 60% disapprove in Arizona, 59% in Michigan, and 57% in Florida. On racial inequality in the United States, 59% disapprove in both Arizona and Michigan, 57% disapprove in Florida.
The results suggest that the president could be in a better condition in all three states if the country’s focus shifts to the economy: in Arizona and Florida, the majority rate the president positively for his management of the economy (52% approve in each state). Michiganans are divided equally (47% approve and 49% disapprove).
But there is little to suggest that such a change occurs in the immediate future. In Arizona and Florida, both areas where coronavirus infections have spread rapidly in recent weeks, the majority (57% in Arizona, 64% in Florida) believe that the worst of the outbreak is yet to come. In both states, more than 7 in 10 voters say the worst is ahead of Biden for president. In Michigan, a limited majority say the worst is behind them (51%).
Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who has publicly clashed with Trump over his response to the coronavirus, gets high marks from residents of his state for his handling of the virus, and 69% say they feel they are doing their best. to combat it. . Republican leaders in Arizona and Florida are not viewed that way by their constituents: 66% say Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey could be doing more to combat the outbreak, and 63% say the same about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Both Biden and Trump have argued that they are the best option for the safety of Americans, with the Trump campaign focused on a public order message and the Biden campaign arguing that Trump has thrown the ball at the coronavirus, which has cost him life to americans. When asked which candidate “would keep Americans safe from harm,” Michigan voters choose Biden, from 52% to 43%. In Arizona, they are divided equally, 47% each. And in Florida, they choose Trump, from 51% to 46%.
In all three states, Biden is more often seen as honest and trustworthy than Trump, but just under 1 in 10 in each state says the description does not apply to any candidate.
Biden’s advantage in all three states is largely attributable to his advantage among women. She wins the support of 61% of women in Michigan, 56% in Arizona, and 53% in Florida. The differences in the way women vote in all states are largely due to differences in support among white women. In Michigan, Biden owns 57% of white women and 36% of Trump. In Arizona, they were more evenly divided, 50% for Biden and 46% for Trump. And in Florida, Trump leads among white women, 55% to 42% of Biden. Biden has ample opportunities among women of color in all three states.
That difference between white women in Michigan and those in Arizona and Florida also comes up pretty strongly on the question of which candidate would keep Americans safe. While white women are more likely than white men in all three states to say that Biden would keep them safe, in Michigan they are 18 points more likely to do so, while that gap is five points in Florida and six points in Arizona.
With the raging pandemic, voters’ views on how they would prefer to vote in the fall are divided by party, and Democrats are more likely to prefer to vote by mail sooner or later, and Republicans often prefer to vote in person on elections.
That means that preferences for voting by mail rather than in person are stronger among Biden supporters than among Trump supporters. In Arizona, 78% of Biden’s sponsors say they would prefer to vote by mail, compared to 43% of Trump supporters. In Florida, 59% of Biden supporters would prefer to cast ballots by mail compared to 19% of Trump supporters. And in Michigan, 67% of Biden’s supporters say they prefer to vote by mail compared to 22% of those who support Trump.
While most of the votes in Arizona and Florida in the recent election have been cast early or absent, the poll suggests that in Michigan, where about a quarter of the votes have been cast in absentia in recent years, ballots for mail could increase significantly. Nearly half of Michigan voters, 47%, say they would prefer to vote by mail using an absentee ballot, and another 6% would like the option to vote early in person.
Democratic candidates have an advantage in Senate races in Arizona and Michigan, according to polls. In Michigan, current Democrat Gary Peters beats Republican John James from 54% to 38%. In Arizona, Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leads Republican Senator Martha McSally 50% to 43%.
These CNN surveys were conducted by SSRS by phone from July 18 to 24 among random samples of adults living in Arizona, Florida, Michigan. In each state, the results for the sample of adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, it is 3.8 points for the subsets of registered voters in each state. The interviews were conducted with 1,002 adults, including 873 registered voters, in Arizona, 1,005 adults, including 880 registered voters in Florida, and 1,003 adults, including 927 registered voters, in Michigan.
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