Overall, 50% of registered voters support the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% said they support Trump and Pence, right on the margin of error of the plus or minus 4 percentage point poll. Among the 72% of voters who say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden’s advantage over Trump expands to 53% to 46%. However, it is narrower, among those voters living in the states that will have the most impact on Electoral College this fall.
In 15 battlefield states, the poll finds that Biden has the support of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%.
The pool of city-state states in this question includes more that Trump conducted in 2016 (10) than were won by Hillary Clinton (5), reflecting the reality that the president’s campaign is more on defense than misrepresentation across the states. Together, however, they represent a more Republican-leaning playing field than the nation as a whole.
The movement in the polls among voters nationwide since June has been concentrated among men (they split almost equally in June, but now 56% back Trump, 40% Biden), those between the ages of 35 and 64 (she now leans toward Trump, but were Biden-leaning in June) and independence (in June, Biden held a lead of 52% to 41%, but now it is an almost equal 46% Biden to 45% Trump divorced).
Trump has also made his partisans solid since June. While 8% of Republicans as Republican-leaning independence said in June that they would get Biden, that figure now stands at just 4%. And the president has boosted his support among conservatives from 76% to 85%.
But the poll suggests Trump voters are a little more likely to say they could change from November (12% say so) than Biden’s supporters (7%).
More voters say their choice of candidate is about Trump than say it is about Biden. Nearly 6 in 10 say they support the candidate they are running because of their opinion of Trump (29% say their Biden vote is more to oppose Trump, 30% said they cast a Trump vote in support of him), while only 32% say Biden is the deciding factor (19% vote for Biden, 13% vote for him).
Overall, 54% take the view of the way Trump treats his job as president and 42% approve. That’s an uptick since June, and roughly in line with Trump’s ratings earlier this year. It still lands the president near the bottom of a list of historic approval ratings for presidents seeking reelection just prior to their nominating conventions. Trump is ahead of Jimmy Carter (33% approval) and George HW Bush (35%), but below Barack Obama (48%), George W. Bush (49%), Bill Clinton (53%) and Ronald Reagan (54%). %)).
Trump’s favoritism rate remains submerged nationwide (43% see him favorable, 55% unfavorable), slightly less than Biden’s 46% favorable for 47% unfavorable self-splits. In the battlefield states, however, voters’ perceptions of the two candidates are almost identical: 52% have a negative opinion of Biden, 54% of Trump. Both candidates are favorably viewed by 45% in those states.
Kamala Harris is seen as a good choice
Harris shares the card with a narrowly positive favorable rating (41% have a favorable view, 38% unfavorable), which is an improvement since May when 32% of Americans said they had a positive view of them and 33% a negative.
Harris’s Biden selection is rated by most (52%) as excellent or fairly good, and 57% say it reflects well on Biden’s ability to make important presidential decisions. Most say she is qualified to be president if need be (57%). And a majority, 62%, say their selection does not have much effect on their vote. However, people of color are more likely than white people to say that their selection makes them Biden more likely (28% among people of color, 18% among whites).
Compared to other recent Democratic running mates, Harris is doing well. The 30% who call their selection excellent come across the part that said so in CNN polls about John Edwards in 2004, Biden in 2008, Joe Lieberman in 2000 or Tim Kaine in 2016. And the 57% who say that she is qualified to serve as president if need be, is only topped by Biden (63%) and Al Gore in 1992 (64%).
About the problems
The poll suggests that supporters of the two candidates live in alternate universes when it comes to the issues that matter to their vote. Overall, the economy, coronavirus, health care, gun policy and race relations are considered extremely important by at least 40% of the electorate. But there are big gaps between Biden and Trump voters over the importance of these issues. Seventeen percent of Biden voters say the coronavirus is critically important against 24% of Trump voters. Among Trump supporters, 57% rate the economy as very important, while 37% of Biden voters agree. Majority of Biden supporters (57% in each case) call health care and race relations very important, while only about 1 in 5 Trump supporters agree (20% on health care, 22% on race relations).
Bid tops Trump as better able to address most of the issues tested in the interview: Racial inequality in the U.S., the outbreak of coronavirus, health care, and foreign policy. Trump wins out on dealing with the economy. Voters are closely divided over which candidate would keep Americans safe from harm (50% say Biden would, 47% Trump). And more generally, Biden is more often seen as having “a clear plan for solving the country’s problems” (49% opt for Biden up to 43% Trump) and being better able to “manage the government effectively” (52% Bid to 44% Trump)).
And when it comes to these top issues, almost all Trump and Biden supporters think their husband is the right one for the job. Just 1% of Biden supporters said they would trust Trump over Biden to address racial inequalities in the US, and only 2% would trust Trump to address the coronavirus outbreak. On the flip side, 2% of Trump voters say they prefer Biden over the economy, and only 4% vote for the coronavirus outbreak.
Overall, Biden maintains the edge over a range of positive traits that are often seen as valuable in a run for the White House. Most say he enjoys people like her (53% Pray, 42% Trump), shares their values (52% Pray to 43% Trump), and is honest and trustworthy (51% Pray to 40% Trump). More also say that Biden will unite the country and not divide it (55% Biden to 35% Trump). But in this matchup between two Septuaginarians, voters are divided over who has the stamina and sharpness to be president (48% say Trump, 46% Biden).
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS August 12 to 15 during a random national sample of 1,108 adults reached on landlines or by telephone through a live interviewer, including 987 registered voters. The survey also includes an oversample of residents from 15 city-state states for a total subsample of 636 adults and 569 registered voters from those states. That subset was weighed against the fair share of the general adult population of the United States. Results for the whole sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. It is 4.0 points among registered voters and 5.4 points for results for registered voters in the battlefield states.
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