Research published in the journal Earth System Dynamics highlights differences between the most sensitive climate models and temperature observations since the 1970s. Scientists at the University of Exeter have studied data from complex climate models, comparing them with accounts of global warnings. Recent developments in climate models have raised forecasts for the planet.
One set of models predicts that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 could result in more than 5C of warming.
According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as little as 1.5C of warming is enough to increase sea level levels, increase ice melt and increase ocean acidity.
But a similar paper published by researchers at the University of Michigan, US, has also cast doubt on the pessimistic outlook of some climate models.
In some cases, very sensitive climate models have predicted warming between 4.5C and 5.3C.
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Scientists are therefore envious of better understanding how much the planet is likely to warm in the coming years.
The lead author of the new study, PhD candidate Femke Nijsse, said: “When evaluating the climate models, we were able to exploit the fact that thanks to clean air regulation, air pollution in the form of climate-cooling aerosols continues to increase worldwide. , allowing the greenhouse gas signal to dominate the last warming. “
In their evaluations, the researchers looked at the amount of warming that occurs when CO2 in the atmosphere is doubled.
This measure is known as equilibrium climate sensitivity as ECS.
Since the Industrial Revolution, global warming trends have been on the rise as a result of emissions from human homes by male gases.
As of July 2020, atmospheric levels of CO2 have reached 414 parts per million (ppm).
Richard Betts, With Office Head of Research Impacts Research and Professor, University of Exeter, said: “At the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the Earth’s atmosphere contained 278 parts CO2 per million.
“Today, after more than two and a half centuries of fossil fuel use, that figure is around 414 parts per million.
“If the build-up of CO2 continues at current rates, it will have passed 560 ppm by 2060 – more than double the level of pre-industrial times.”
