Someone is working hard trying to make runners important again.
Next Gen Stats just released a new metric this offseason: expected yards per carry. The objective is to separate the offensive line output from the result of each race, trying to demonstrate the effectiveness of RB from player to player.
More importantly, the Seattle Seahawks have two endorsements of the top 10 NFL.com running backs since 2019.
Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde were extra effective last year, reaching sixth and eighth, respectively.
As we immerse ourselves in what a yard expected by hauling means, let’s clarify one thing. It all starts with the offensive line, so for part of this new metric it seems that the riders, in fact, don’t matter. Yards expected per haul “It reflects the performance of the career blockers on an individual play, because it tells you how many yards the ball carrier should have gained based on the situation around him on the field.” That number in itself is a direct reflection of the execution of the offensive line on each play, as well as the defensive lineup and their effectiveness as a team that stops the race.
Where runners come into play is how actually ran the ball in relation to expectation. Positive numbers obviously equate to a runner who exceeds what the play gave him; and negative numbers indicate Rashaad Penny a misstep somewhere by the ball carrier.
This metric for success has been designated RYOE Rushed yards above expectations.
It probably wouldn’t take long to guess which running back led the league last year. Derrick Henry was the undisputed king, the only RB above 1.0 RYOE. After Henry were Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley.
Chris Carson is in that stellar company, with a RYOE of +0.52 per attempt, and a total of 145 yards higher than expected this season.
Mark Ingram was seventh and newly signed Carlos Hyde falls eighth, with a +0.48 RYOE per attempt. Next Gen Stats got excited about Hyde, particularly how bad his Houston Texans were last season:
“Houston’s offensive line helped account for an ugly 3.8 xYPC, the second-lowest xYPC in the entire NFL.”
Hyde’s 4.3 yards per carry, then, was half a meter ahead of the Texans’ heinous offensive line. A 4.3 yards per carry was also the lowest mark on this list, meaning Hyde did well with what he was given, and is an elite opportunist, if not a true elite backer.
Seattle is the only team with two of these runners on its roster, although I would like to know if there is an xYPC for quarterbacks and what could be Lamar Jackson’s RYOE.
There is a lot of potential for a body of runners with Carson and Hyde, especially considering that many assume Hyde was hired for injury protection.
A possible outcome here could be devastating for Rashaad Penny. NFL.com didn’t publish numbers beyond the top 10, but a few dozen one-inch runs don’t give me confidence that it got a really high score. If Hyde comes in like the second second and comes back feel it does it right because he is able to make the most of his limited loads … uncomfortable for Penny.
You can’t win the game in the first quarter, but I wonder if you can win a job.
