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Original title: Zheng Yan sees the market: the style of the market is now changing the cycle actions continue to carnival
On Wednesday, A shares were dominated by declines, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3,347.30 points. Most of the remaining stock indices fell: the Shenzhen main board, small and medium, and the Chuangye composite index fell 0.34%, 0.30% and 0.67%, respectively, and the science and technology index 50 fell 0.81%. The Shanghai Stock Index obviously rose due to strong financial stocks, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index closed 2.13% higher.
After-hours data showed that there was a slight net outflow of 14.18 million yuan of funds from the north, which has basically maintained this state for two consecutive days. US stocks fell overnight, but the Hang Seng index of Hong Kong stocks rose 0.49% on Wednesday.
A shares are weaker than Hong Kong shares because A shares have been hit recently by the news of credit bonds. Interest rate bonds continued to decline on Wednesday and all IACC stock index futures contracts fell. Recently, the performance of the bond market deserves the attention of investors. As for really troublesome corporate bonds and corporate bonds, because their turnover is too small, it is easier to get distorted information just by looking at their trends. The corporate bond with the biggest drop on Wednesday was “18 Bojin 01”, which fell 8.79%, and the transaction was only 430,000 yuan, making it difficult to say how representative it is.
Looking at the A-share market on Wednesday, most stocks in the big bulls in the first half of the year, like pharmaceuticals and consumer, weakened and pharmaceutical stocks fell further. In addition, the recent trend of rare wine stocks mainly fell. In addition to bank stocks, cyclical stocks like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and real estate are also strong. The Xiamen sector rose sharply, but this is related to the positive news. In general, Wednesday’s record is characterized by a large increase in the first half of the year and a small increase in the first half of the year.
Generally speaking, it is more difficult to change the style of the market and you should have enough drivers. This is one of the important reasons why people like to say “the strong are always strong.” The strong and weak sectors of A shares have recently undergone significant changes. Personally, I think there are both technical and fundamental factors. The two have rarely resonated, and the style of the market has undergone a major change.
Technically, some consumer and pharmaceutical stocks that jumped too high in the first half of the year were in fact overbought, and the P / E and P / B ratios have been significantly overestimated. Also, the fund may have to settle accounts and compete for the rankings at the end of the year, so these stocks fell. It’s worse. The fund is just one of the market participants and may not be able to play an overwhelming role, but if you focus on selling positions at the end of the year, the market disruption cannot be underestimated.
Fundamentally, the prospect of a recovery in the world economy has strengthened, which is naturally a positive factor for stagnant cyclical stocks. In recent weeks, the market has viewed the US election situation as positive, and the good news from peripheral vaccines has clearly further contributed to earlier expectations. Also, when it comes to pharmaceutical stocks in the super bull stocks sector, Lepu Medical has recently plummeted due to the news of the centralized acquisition, so this is also one of the fundamental reasons for the weakening of stocks. stocks of white horses in the first half of the year.
By the way, the bad news for pharmaceutical stocks is quite different from that for alcoholic beverages. For example, the Zhong Shunxin Agriculture liquor stock plummeted as its performance fell much lower than expected, but this also involved only specific stocks, because investors could be considered cases. This is not the case for newsgathering on pharmaceutical stocks, and pessimism is obviously more contagious.
Now that the style of the market has changed, investors had better take advantage of the trend for now, and it is not appropriate to go against the market. If you are still optimistic about the consumption of white horses and medicines, you can also wait until the end of the reduction period of funds. By then, the characteristics of the disk should be decreasing.
Cyclical stocks are currently on the rise in general, investors should find products with a strong enough logic and not have to worry too much about past earnings, otherwise it is easy to buy weaker products. On a day when the hype is lower, those who climb the most may not fall much, but those who climb less may fall faster. All the demand for cyclical commodities will eventually be reflected in prices. Therefore, investors can focus on the commodity market to deploy cyclical actions, that is, look for varieties with sufficient price increases, to have a margin of safety in performance.
The author has opened a column on the WeChat platform, and readers can directly view the author’s latest views through WeChat every Sunday to Thursday night. For more information, pay attention to the official WeChat account. (WeChat ID: njcjnews)
