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On April 22, the World Food Program and 15 other development and humanitarian partners jointly published the “Global Food Crisis Report 2020” (hereafter the report).The report notes that in 2019, the majority of the population affected by severe food insecurity comes from countries affected by conflict (77 million people), countries affected by climate change (34 million people) and countries with economic crisis (24 millions of people).
At the same time, another World Food Program report predicts that the number of people facing severe food insecurity (IPCCH 3 and above) will increase to 265 million by the end of 2020 due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, an increase in 130 million as of 2019.
The life of the poor will be more difficult.
“The standard used in the report is stricter than what we usually call the hunger standard, so the number of hungry people mentioned is much lower than what is commonly known as the 820 million people with chronic chronic hunger in the world”. Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administration, China University of Agriculture Fan Shenggen said in an interview with China Science News that the 265 million people face acute and severe hunger, which can cause death, severe malnutrition or irreversible effects on life .
Pu Lezhe, a research assistant at the Institute of Agricultural Economics of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told China Science News that the full name of the IPC is the “Comprehensive Food Safety Classification”, an indicator jointly developed by international organizations for measure the degree of food insecurity. level
IPCCH3 stands for “crisis” rating, which means one of the following two situations: the gap in household food consumption manifests as severe malnutrition or the gap is higher than normal; Only by consuming basic livelihood assets or crisis response measures can you barely reach the minimum food needs.
Levels 4 and 5 are emergency, disaster / famine. Level 3 or higher indicates that urgent action is needed to address food insecurity.
“The forecast is based on actual data from 55 countries / regions. Therefore, the forecast results have a reference value,” Pu said.
Fan Shenggen noted that there will be a new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, as well as the African locust plague, and the war will continue.
“Everyone is watching and calculating its impact, but what is certain is that the situation is not optimistic.” With the rapid development of the coronary pneumonia epidemic in Africa, there will be more hungry and malnourished people there.
Why does the impact of the epidemic only double the number of hungry people in the world in the short term?
In this sense, Johan Swinnen, director of the International Institute for Food Policy Research (IFPRI), believes that the global economic recession caused by the blockade and other anti-epidemic measures that restrict commercial activities will lead to lower food consumption and nutritional status. reduced.
People’s real income will decrease and food spending will also decrease.
“The lower the income, the stronger this effect will be, which means that the lives of the poor will be more difficult.”
Pu Zhe emphasized another reason, namely, epidemic prevention and control measures directly impact the food supply chain, affecting the quantity and efficiency of the food supply, which will have a major impact in regions with high dependency of food.
Predictions from the global model show that for every percentage point of global economic slowdown, the number of poor people will increase by 2% to 3%, or an increase from approximately 14 million to 23 million people.
Compared to developed countries, the health and economic impact of the epidemic in developing countries is greater, and it is more likely to cause poverty and hunger.
According to last week’s forecast, the world economy will experience negative growth of 3%, which is 6 percentage points lower than the previous 3% growth forecast.
Fan Sheng calculated on this basis that the world’s poor population will increase by 84 million to 138 million people. “I am not surprised by the speculation in the report that the number of hungry people has increased by 130 million.”
World food prices should not rise
According to statistics from the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, as of April 16, at least 14 countries have imposed restrictions on the export of agricultural products and food.
“It is very bad to secure the domestic food supply by restricting food exports.” Fan Shenggen said he had been asking to avoid restrictions on food exports.
A few days ago, the G20 Minister of Agriculture issued a meeting statement to avoid any unreasonable restrictive measures that may cause excessive fluctuations in food prices on the international market, so as not to threaten the food security of most of the world population, especially against hard food. The most vulnerable groups in a safe environment.
“In this case, those countries that had previously planned to restrict grain exports would have to think twice.”
Pu Zhe told reporters that export restrictions by major grain-exporting countries will exacerbate their own pressure for economic and social growth.
Based on the current situation, Vietnam and Romania have also adjusted the restrictive measures.
Currently, according to the cereal price index published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, export prices of all major cereals except rice have fallen for two consecutive months.
Swinnen noted that, according to economic model predictions, world food prices should not increase based on current relatively high food reserves, food crops and falling demand.
“The main reason for the rise in food prices may be the government’s and consumers’ food hoarding behavior, not the market.” Swinnen said that while food prices have not yet increased significantly, the food security of the world’s poor people may face greater risks. .
Pu Zhe suggested continuing to follow the trend of the world food market and paying attention to the risks facing developing countries, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa.
Stabilize food production and maintain a strategic backyard.
So will the spread of the global epidemic have a serious impact on global food security?
For this question, Swinnen said: “Based on our model’s predictions, early empirical evidence, and historical lessons from past food crises, the answer is ‘yes, it is not.’ The risk of a food crisis depends on the level of economic development. Rich, the answer is basically no, but if you’re poor, you’re likely to face a crisis. “
Swinnen emphasized that the new coronary pneumonia epidemic primarily affects the assets of poor workers. The outbreak will lead to disruption of the private sector value chain in the poorest countries.
Public sector health, nutrition and health support projects that were originally provided to the poor were also disrupted by the epidemic. Furthermore, poor countries have low economic capacity to compensate for declining incomes.
Pu Zhe suggested that China should stabilize domestic grain production and maintain a strategic backyard.
Now spring agricultural production and summer grain management are progressing smoothly.
However, risk factors such as general deviation from agricultural meteorology, overlapping of traditional pests and diseases, and imported pests cannot be ignored. It is also necessary to pay close attention to the trend of the international food market and avoid the transmission of risks inwards.
“As a responsible country, we must continue to strengthen international cooperation in global food security and jointly maintain global agricultural trade and market order,” said Pu Zhe.
Fan Shenggen emphasized that after the epidemic, experts at home and abroad should consider how to improve the resilience of the food system to cope with possible future impacts.
