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Original title: Will driverless cars arrive early? | Planning New Year 2021Ten Questions About China’s Economy
When will the first year of unmanned driving in China be? To this question, the automotive industry and the technology industry have multiple answers, and 2020, 2021 and 2022 have appeared within expectations. A few years ago, the industry unanimously defined 2020 as the first year of the outbreak of autonomous driving.
But the facts have shown that autonomous driving takes much longer than expected to go from promo to explosion to true unmanned driving.BaiduWithout staffCar rentalHe drove on the streets in October 2020 and tested it in online car calling mode, but the era of unmanned driving in the true sense has not yet arrived.
So in 2021, will the era of unmanned driving arrive?
More voices are negative: there is still a long way to go for true driverless driving. The fact is that even high-level policies are tightening. 2020 multipleindustryDevelopment policies have been updated to accommodate the development of the next stage of autonomous drivingobjectives. “Energy Saving Vehicles and New Energy” launched on October 27, 2020Technological roadmap2.0 “, directly removed the goal of fully autonomous driving technology application; the” Intelligent Grid Vehicle Technology Highway “launched on November 11, 2020line chart2.0 “, postponed the application time of L5 fully autonomous driving technology from 2025 to 2035.” Car regulation lidar, high-precision real-time map updates and laws and regulations are behind expectations. ” development of autonomous driving in 2020,NavInfoSaid CEO Cheng Peng Multi-party information display, core component technologyMaturitywithcostThe problems restrict the progress of autonomous driving development. At the same time, policies, regulations,Technical rulesStandard, scene division, monitoringadministrationThere are still deficiencies in many aspects such as the reconstruction of infrastructure.
High-level automatic driving is not expected, but auxiliary automatic drivingCharge rateIt is improving rapidly. Regarding the market share of cars equipped with L2 and L3 autonomous driving technologies in 2025, the “Smart Connected Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0” will increase the target from 25% to 50%. the policy is considered the biggest benefit for autonomous driving in 2020. “The big event should be the“ Innovative Development of Smart Cars ”issued by the National Development and Reform Commission.strategy“The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the” Automotive Driving Automation Classification “(expected to be implemented on January 1, 2021), and China has determined the basic route for the coordinated development of vehicles and roads.”CCID ConsultingAutomotive Industry Research CenterGeneral ManagerLu Wenliang said.
What are the acceleration points for the autonomous driving industry in 2021?
Lu Wenliang predicts that, on the one hand, it is possible to officially introduce standards, regulations andproduct; On the other hand, it is vehicle-road coordination. With the advancement of the new infrastructure, the road infrastructure of vehicle-road coordination will develop rapidly.Since the grading standard is about to be launched, automobile companies with L3 mass production capacity have also launched newStrategic planning。
In the field of scene application, “New Energy VehicleIndustrial developmentplanning(2021-2035) “proposes” support for unmanned urban logistics with smart networked vehicles as a carrierdelivery, Municipal sanitation, rapid transit system (BRT), automatic valet parking, and scene-specific demo applications, meaning that automatic driving in limited scenes can usher in rapid development.
In general, the industry believes that automated driving of commercial vehicles will come before that of passenger vehicles. The 2020 epidemic will heat up unmanned logistics and distribution. Trunk logistics and specific closed scenarios have also become the first commercialization scenarios for autonomous driving.In the field of passenger transport, the “Smart Connected Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0” shows that around 2025 , L3 autonomous driving technology will be realized for buses in limited scenarios.dealPerform commercial applications on the L4 level of shuttle buses in limited scenarios.
Due to the more complex environment, it is more difficult for private cars to land automatically. Automatic parking andhighwayScenes like assisted driving will be the first to land. E.g,Xiaopeng MotorsIt said that since 2020, its user auto parking scene coverage has reached 85%.SAICThe newly launched Zhiji Auto plans to build nuclear power plants in Shanghai in 2021, subject to regulations.Mental quotientChao is developing the valet function. In 2022, top-tier cities will have zero autonomous driving experience. The relevant technology roadmap notes that large-scale implementation of the L3 and L4 self-driving passenger cars will take five and ten years, respectively, and the implementation of L5 will have to wait until 2035.
(Source: Economic Observer Network)
(Responsible editor: DF524)
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