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China started taking the seventh national census, which is the country’s national population statistics again from 2010.
China began conducting the seventh national census starting in November, which is the first time population statistics have been made at the national level in ten years.
The census that takes place every ten years is seen as an important basis for Chinese authorities to formulate economic and social development plans. Due to China’s long-term “family planning” policy, many academics are also concerned whether the census results will further highlight the aging crisis and cause the authorities to fully liberalize the birth policy.
Millions of pollsters began traveling to urban communities and towns and villages, registering door to door. According to official media reports, the census subjects include citizens of mainland China and residents of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and foreign countries who have long lived in China.
Image source,AFP
China’s family planning policy has been in place for almost half a century.
Census
According to reports, the population census will be recorded from November 1 to December 10, 2020, and the main data will be released in April 2021.
Respondents are required to submit basic personal information, including level of education, industry, occupation, migration, marriage and childbirth, death, and housing.
The official media reported that the census subjects are natural persons in mainland China and Chinese citizens who have not settled outside of China, but it does not include foreigners who stay in China for a short period of time.
For example, the Henan provincial government revealed in a press conference held on October 30 that the census will be divided into four types of census forms according to the different objects of the census, including “short form”, “long form”, ” residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan “. “And foreign personnel survey form” and “dead population survey form”.
Most mainland Chinese citizens only need to complete the “short form,” but officials will select 10% of the census subjects to complete the “long form.” There are longer form elements. For example, when completing the form, you should be specific to occupations such as “brother to go” and “line taxi driver”. In addition to basic personal information, the census form for staff abroad also includes items such as purpose of entry, time of residence, identity or nationality, and employment status.
The population crisis alarm?
The census has attracted the special attention of many academics and individuals, and an important reason is that it may sound the alarm of a possible population crisis in China.
China’s family planning policy has been in place for almost half a century. To control population growth, over a long period of time, a couple can only have one child, which is called an “only child.” Those who violate the regulations must pay high social maintenance fees, and some places even force women to induce labor.
After the 2010 census, official data showed that although China’s total population is close to 1.4 billion, its total fertility rate is only 1.18, less than half the world average. Subsequently, the Chinese government initiated a two-child policy for couples with only one child in 2013 (two children only), and then implemented the “comprehensive two children” policy in 2015, which means that both spouses can have two children independently. whether they are only children. Children.
Although the census figures for the year that have played a role in decision-making by the authorities are unknown, the census figures undoubtedly arouse more people to express concern about China’s potential demographic crisis.
Chinese economist Ren Zeping wrote publicly in October that after China previously liberalized the “second child only” and the “second complete child”, the fertility effect was not as good as expected and was significantly lower than the data. forecasting opposition to fertility liberalization. The population of birth in China continues to decline and the aging of the population accelerates. Therefore, he called for gradual progress from the liberalization of the three children, and full liberalization as soon as possible and encourage childbirth.
Previously, Chinese officials have repeatedly denied that China is facing a population crisis. At a press conference in 2017, Wang Peian, then deputy director of China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission, said that by the peak period of 2030, China will still have about 1.45 billion people and there will be about 1.4 billion people. people by 2050.
“There is no population shortage in China’s population problem. Not only is there population shortage now, but in the coming decades, there will be no population shortage in the next 100 years,” said Wang Peian.
However, Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a demographic scholar who publishes the book “Empty Nest of Great Powers,” believes that the phenomenon of excessive reporting in the previous census may mislead authorities to carry out various measures. Article decision. He believes that the negative growth in the workforce caused by the low fertility rate will not be able to sustain the internal and external issues that are already expanding.
In an article published in the “Social Science Forum” in June this year, he predicted that China’s real population is “probably only 1.255 billion, and it is impossible to exceed 1.283 billion.” China faces an “unprecedented aging crisis”.
“I hope this census can reflect the real and dire situation. China’s family planning policy must now be adjusted,” Yi Fuxian said.
Improvements and loopholes
The State Council of China signed and approved the “Notice on Conduct of the Seventh National Population Census” in November last year, stating that the purpose of the census is to comprehensively investigate the population, structure, distribution, urban and rural housing , etc. Development plans, promote high-quality economic development, and provide scientific and accurate statistical information support. “
Image source,CNS
The census will no longer use paper, but will be collected by census staff using electronic equipment.
Authorities reportedly mobilized around 7 million census takers to report on more than 400 million households.
Chinese media reported that compared to the census 10 years ago, this census will no longer use paper, but will be collected by census workers using electronic equipment and then directly report the data. Citizens can also complete it themselves by scanning a QR code.
Some Chinese netizens expressed concern on social media about the need to fill in the real estate information in the census, speculating that the “house rounds” could pave the way for the collection of real estate taxes in the future.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics responded that the purpose of the “home rounds” is to control the population. To “understand the living conditions of the population, housing facilities and rent levels”, it is not the first time it has been included in the census, and it asks the public that “it is not necessary to interpret excessively”.
The authorities also indicated that the data obtained in the census will be strictly limited to be used for census purposes, and no unit or individual “may not provide or disclose to the outside world, nor will it be used as a basis for specific administrative actions against the subjects of the census. “.
Yi Fuxian told the BBC that the biggest difference between this census and the previous one is the addition of identifying information, which he believes is the most important improvement.
“The census from 10 years ago was actually very flawed and there was no mechanism for relocation,” he said. “At that time, because they did not register their identification cards, many migrant workers were registered once in the city and once in their rural hometown.”
Image source,fake images
China is the most populous country in the world, and the 2010 census showed that China’s total population was 1.37 billion.
Yi Fuxian said that because population figures are often tied to various types of investment and resources from central government to local governments, such as education funding, high-speed train construction, etc., in censuses Earlier, some local governments also actively used Re-report the “login” vulnerability.
He believes that the initial registration of ID cards in the census will close this loophole to some extent, but the statistical problem that remains to be solved is how to select people who have obtained multiple ID cards through illegal means.
Why do we need a census?
As a tool frequently used by modern governments, many countries use the census to understand the national population, housing, and related important issues.
In 1790, after the United States government launched the first census with modern significance, social concepts such as suicide rate, crime rate, religious distribution, and male-female ratio emerged. Today, many countries conduct a census every 10 years. For example, the United States also conducts a census this year for 10 years, and the United Kingdom has conducted a census every 10 years since 1801.
In 1953, the government after the establishment of the Communist Party of China conducted the first national census, and the results showed that the total population of China at that time was 600 million people. This figure includes Chinese, Taiwanese, Hong Kongers, Macao and Tibetans abroad who have not been directly investigated.
In the sixth national census in 2010, which is the closest to China’s current census, authorities announced that the country’s total population was 1.37 billion people, with 400 million households and a gender ratio of 105.2: 100.
Image source,XINHUA
Coincidentally, in Taiwan, across the strait, the government also announced that it would start a “population and housing census” from November 2020. The Taiwan population census currently adopts three methods, namely, “fill in the form online “,” send staff interviews “and” complete form with retention “.
Taiwanese media reported that to encourage people to participate in the census, the Chief Accounting Office of the Executive Yuan also launched a lottery in which lucky people can receive gifts such as iPads, cameras or Bluetooth headsets. Enthusiastic Internet users even caused network outages.
