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Original caption: After RCEP is signed, will China apply zero tariffs on sugar imports from Thailand and Vietnam?
Recently, there is no event that can have a significant impact on global economic development than on November 15 when China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the ten ASEAN countries formally signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. Regional (RCEP). The market has fully understood the importance of the signing of the RCEP, and its impact on the national sugar market is occurring from the outside in. Some market participants believe that in the future, sugar produced in Thailand and other countries can enter the Chinese market without tariffs. In the future, the national sugar market will undergo qualitative changes and even the entire chain of the sugar industry will undergo far-reaching changes. So, will this be the future development trend of the national sugar market?
After the signing of the RCEP, will the import of sugar from Thailand and Vietnam have zero tariffs? What impact will it have on the national sugar market?Li Hai, chairman of Guangxi Chaoqi Investment Co., Ltd., told reporters:This must be analyzed thoroughly and systematically. First of all, the signing of the agreement this time only further broadens the scope of market opening.In the future, more than 90% of imports and exports of goods will be zero tariffs among RCEP members, but not 100% Second, China and the ten ASEAN countries have already signed a free trade agreement. Up to 10,000 types of products have zero tariff and there are only a few varieties, such asSugar、RubberTo maintain a certain level of tariffs on rice, rice, etc., all countries protect their key industries and industries. Therefore, the domestic sugar market cannot be fully liberalized. If fully liberalized, China’s sugar industry will be hit hard and farmers in producing areas will no longer have to plant sugar cane. Finally, the current RCEP rules have not been fully announced and China is expected to eventually protect the sugar industry.
It is understood that to guaranteeRCEPSmooth and efficient implementation, the specific tax reduction models of the RCEP member states basically include “zeroing immediately after the agreement enters into force”, “zeroing during the transition period” (including reduction to zero in 10 years), “partial tax reduction” and a small number of “exceptions Products” and four other categories. Furthermore, tariff reductions between members are mainly based on a commitment to immediately reduce tariffs to zero and to reduce tariffs to zero within ten years. The free trade zone is expected to achieve significant phased construction results in a relatively short time.
Industry professionals believe that according to customary procedures, the RCEP will go into effect within two years of signing, however, since the agreement was just signed and specific current documents have not been announced, it is unclear when each clause will take effect. The understanding of the conventional agreement by the relevant departments is that the implementation time for the tax rate of each product is generally divided into the shortest and the longest, that is, the effective time for reducing tariffs or zero taxes for the products. listed can be within 1 year or 5 years after the agreement officially takes effect. Years or even 15 years, depending on the agreement and regulations announced after its entry into force. If sugar is on the zero tariff list, the specific terms of the deal have not yet been seen. Sugar is not expected to be included in the duty free list. Furthermore, India is not yet in the Member States. Therefore, the recent weak performance of the domestic sugar market mainly reflects market psychology. Wave dynamic potential.
Chen Weizhuo, a veteran of the sugar market, said that in the main content of the RCEP, the impact on sugar includes lowering tariffs on trade in goods to zero tariffs. In the next 10 years, the zero tariff category of goods will reach 90% of the total. So the sugar trade package won’t. Included in the list, it’s hard to say at this point. However, it can be observed that among the main participating countries Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, the main producing country of sugar is Thailand. The impact on the market is relatively large. Although the sugar market in Thailand is still in the production reduction cycle, like last year’s production of 8.37 million tonnes, this year it is estimated at 7.1 million tonnes, which will reduce production at 1.27 million tonnes, but Thailand’s domestic sugar consumption is limited and most of the sugar must be exported. At the same time, Vietnam and Myanmar, which directly border China’s borders, are also traditionally non-traded imports and syrups and powdered sugar. The signing of the agreement means that the cost of Thai sugar entering China through these countries will be lower. Up? This requires observing the development of the monitoring situation, at present it can only be said that the probability is relatively high. Also, if the sugar re-export trade is carried out through the mentioned countries, if you can enjoy zero-tariff treatment, you still need to pay attention to the introduction of the relevant rules. From the point of view of the time from signature to implementation, the signing of the agreement has a limited impact on China’s sugar imports this year and next. The current low domestic sugar prices are mainly due to the fact that the prices of old sugar suppress the prices of new sugar, the prices of beet sugar suppress the prices of cane sugar and the prices of processed sugar suppress the prices of sugar. of beets. In such a situation of chain after chain, “the bell must be resolved”, the focus of the market is on the price of raw sugar. The current trend in prices in the domestic sugar market is actually a process to find a balance between internal and external sugar. Before the breakeven point of sugar prices, there is no bull or bear market. After breakeven in the future, the trend will come out naturally.
“Among the 15 member states of the RCEP, China, Thailand, Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines produce more than one million tons of sugar, while China, Indonesia and Japan are net importers of sugar, and Thailand and Australia are the main exporters. of sugar. .After the RCEP takes effect, more than 90% of tax items will be subject to zero tariffs and may increase to 95% of tax items in the future.Nowadays,The specific provisions of RCEP are stillUndisclosed, but I think the sugar columnImport duty-free productsThe possibility of taxes on items is relatively small.”Guangxi PantangTechnologyInvestigation of limited partnership informationDirector Liu Zhiyan told reporters that referring to the previously implemented “ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement”According to the degree of sensitivity, the products are divided into normal products and sensitive products, normal products are subject to zero tariffs and low sensitivity.Low rates, Highly sensitive products can maintain higher tariffs, of which sugar maintains moreTariff-sensitive productsIn sequence。pressUnder current rules, the tariff standard for imported sugar from ASEAN countries listed as 1701 is an in-quota duty of 15%, with an additional duty of 50%.In recent years, China’s main sugar importsThe country of origin includes RCEP member countries such as Thailand and Australia, which mainly do not reduce tariffs on sugar with an additional 50%.
“Even in the worst case scenario, instant sugar appears on the list of products with zero tariff, it is estimated that it will take at least two years before the tariff rate takes effect. The short-term impact on the national market of the sugar is limited. “Liu Zhiyan said.
Liu Zhiyan believes that the recent large adjustments in domestic sugar prices are not affected by the news of the RCEP signing, but mainly due to the weak trend in the spot market. At the same time, the continued high level of imports of syrup has also had a negative impact on the domestic sugar market. Under current rules, syrup imported from ASEAN countries is subject to a zero-tariff policy and there are no import quota restrictions. In September this year, China imported 101,300 tons of syrup. The cumulative import volume from January to September reached 706,600 tons, which is 2019 4.23 times the annual total. The import cost of the syrup is low and it can be easily processed into finished white sugar for sale in the country. Many sugar terminals will directly use syrup to produce sugar-containing foods, which has a major impact on the white sugar sales market. Since China’s imports of syrup come mainly from ASEAN countries such as Thailand and Malaysia, after signing the RCEP, more open, the market is concerned that progress to solve the syrup problem that has been placed on the regulatory agenda slow down.
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