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Original title: The second wave of the epidemic is back What went wrong in Europe?
After successfully containing the first wave of the epidemic, when the temperature dropped, the European epidemic returned and the number of new cases even exceeded the peak in March. What happens in Europe? Experts believe that the second peak of the epidemic in Europe may be related to the “new corona fatigue.” As countries relax their measures against the epidemic, people have begun to relax their vigilance. The restart of business, tourism and lazy youth exacerbated the risk of the virus spreading.
“Severe situation”
According to CNN, citing data from the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC), this week the 14-day notification rate (number of new cases reported) of new corona-confirmed cases in the European Union and the United Kingdom reached a record high, and many countries have begun to implement Lockdown Restrictions.
Overall, the European mortality rate was stable at 72 days. But in Bulgaria, Croatia, Malta, Romania and Spain, the death rate is also increasing.
The director of the WHO Regional Office for Europe, Kruger, warned this Thursday that Europe faces a “serious situation” with “worrying transmission rates.” Cases have increased by more than 10% in the last two weeks and cases in 7 countries have more than tripled. The number of new cases this week has surpassed the peak in March.
Leaders of various countries are also not optimistic about future prospects, and are concerned that a new round of “city closures” will be implemented at the national level.
According to Reuters, British Prime Minister Johnson declared on the 18th that Britain is “inevitably” witnessing the arrival of the second wave of the epidemic. He said he does not want to implement a second national blockade, but “the only way we can do this is for people to follow the guidelines.”
In last week’s report, the number of cases in the UK nearly doubled, peaking at 6000 cases per day. The Guardian stated that Johnson and officials are considering new measures, as a two-week “circuit breaker” measure.
In France, Spain and other countries the situation is not optimistic, both the occupancy rate and the mortality rate in intensive care units have recovered.
On the 18th, the Spanish Ministry of Health announced the latest restrictions. According to statistics from the Spanish Ministry of Health, the number of new cases in Spain reached a record 12,183 on September 11. Spain is currently the country with the most confirmed cases in Europe, with more than 600,000 confirmed cases and more than 30,000 deaths.
According to data released by the French National Health Agency, the number of new cases in France reached 13,215 on the 18th, the highest record since April. According to CNN, intensive care units in some areas of France are close to full capacity.
Last Friday, the Czech Republic also reported a record 3,130 new confirmed cases, and Italy reported the highest number of confirmed cases since May 17, with 1907 new cases. The Netherlands also reported a record of confirmed cases in 1977 on the 18th. From the 20th, restaurants, cafes and bars in the six regions of the Netherlands will face restrictions.
Where is the problem?
Why did the epidemic that was finally contained re-emerge?
The US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) said this may be due to “new crown fatigue” in parts of Europe, with the increase in cases partly due to lax quarantine and health measures. public of the government and the public.
In many countries, there has been an increase in confirmed cases in densely populated cities. After the spring peak, the government has relaxed the relevant restrictions and people are gradually returning to offices, schools and public places.
In Spain, most of the new cases come from large cities such as Madrid and Barcelona. Alex Arenas, an epidemiologist at the University of Rovira-Velljili, said that because the first wave of the epidemic had come to an end and seriously ill patients almost disappeared from the hospital, people relaxed vigilance. Summer Madrid and Barcelona Coding to “restart”. “Some areas even open their doors to tourists with little or no control.”
Like Spain, Austria’s capital Vienna has seen a dramatic increase in cases and half of the country’s new cases are in Vienna.
The European tourism industry and large-scale activities that have restarted in the summer have also exacerbated the epidemic.
Greece, Croatia and other countries survived the first wave of the epidemic. However, with the reopening of European internal borders in June, tourists have flocked to these resorts to enjoy the summer holidays, and the number of confirmed cases in these countries is also increasing. The same goes for the Riviera, a tourist center in southeastern France.
In addition, young people may also have to “back down” for the second peak of the epidemic.
Italian authorities said in late August that about 50% of the new infections were caused by the virus in various parts of Italy and abroad during the summer holidays, and most of them were young people who were not cautious about the epidemic.
Krueger, director of the WHO Regional Office for Europe, also said that most new cases in Europe are between 25 and 49 years old. He said: “I am very concerned that more and more young people are being included in the confirmed cases,” and suggested canceling large gatherings and parties.
The failure of detection and monitoring systems in some European countries has also made it difficult to control the epidemic. According to CNN, the detection and tracking system implemented in the UK in late May has been widely criticized, there was only one call to quarantine people, but there was no follow-up. Even Prime Minister Johnson admitted that this system has “huge problems.”
No shortcut
Regarding the number of new cases, the situation in Europe is very bad. But for now, countries do not intend to repeat the same mistakes, hoping to avoid large-scale lockdown measures as much as possible.
Experts also believe that the current situation is different from the first stage and should be treated separately.
Flavia Riccardo, a researcher at the Italian National Institute of Health, said in an interview with Vox News that the biggest caveat is: “Today’s figures cannot be placed on the early epidemic curve, assuming they are only one time. thing”.
Vox noted that compared to the early days, Europe’s detection methods have changed dramatically. In early Europe, only patients with obvious symptoms were detected, but now the situation is different. With the expansion of testing standards and the increase in the number of swabs, the level of testing in Europe has also increased significantly.
According to the “Our World in Data” project at the University of Oxford, at the end of March, German officials conducted approximately 20,000 tests a day. Now, this number has reached a staggering 150,000. France now performs 144,000 tests a day and Spain 89,000.
Furthermore, since the main infected population has shifted from the elderly to the young, the European hospitalization rate and death rate have not increased significantly. Compared to the early days, doctors are also getting better and better at diagnosing and treating a new coronary pneumonia.
However, Edouard Mathieu, data manager for the Our World in Data project, believes that, compared to March, the most recent picture of the epidemic in Europe is more complicated and subtle, but the result may be the same: the number of cases increases exponentially. The risk persists or it will lead to unnecessary deaths and a new round of lockdown.
Thomas Tsai, a health policy researcher at Harvard University, noted that governments and people in all countries should overcome “pandemic fatigue.” Between the economy and the virus, all countries hope to limp to maintain a balance, but the result may be that neither of these things can be done well.
For Thomas Tsai, the situation in Europe is a warning: there are no shortcuts in the epidemic. Countries that have performed well have been monitoring and tracing for six months, implementing containment measures and emphasizing the importance of mask use and social distancing. “This is a one-generation epidemic. If we do not actively ensure that the epidemic is controlled, the epidemic will not go away by half on its own.”
