When the small peak in consumption came, why did the CPI turn negative in January? _ Eastern Fortune Network

Original title: Why did the CPI turn negative in January when the small peak of consumption arrived?

The Spring Festival is approaching, food and non-food consumptionpriceThey both saw a slight increase. Feb. 10National Statistical OfficeAccording to published data, in JanuaryCPIThe month-on-month increase was 1.0%. Among them, the prices of vegetables, meat, eggs and other foods have caused the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol to rise as a whole;Oil priceThe continued growth of the country’s economy has kept consumer prices for non-food products high. However, after excluding food and energy prices, the underlying CPI for the monthI andEarnings turned negative for the first time to -0.3%. The industry believes this reflects that current residential demand is still weak, considering that the price index has recently peaked and recovered, and the Bureau of Statistics is also conducting five yearsBase periodWeight conversion and adjustment When the impact of food and energy on the CPI weakens, the CPI index does not rule out the possibility of falling back into a negative range.

Vegetable prices increased almost 20% month-on-month

So far, the month-to-month increase in the CPI has maintained an upward trend for two consecutive months. From a data point of view, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol increased 2.8% month-on-month, which contributed to the increase in the CPI of around 0.80%. Among them, the price of fresh vegetables rose the most, 19.0% month-on-month, an increase of 10.5 percentage points, affecting the increase in the CPI by around 0.40 percentage points. Dong Lijuan, senior statistician from the City Department’s National Bureau of Statistics, believes this is due to cooling in some areas and the impact of rain and snow. Production, storage and transport of fresh vegetablescostIncreased.

Taking Beijing as an example, according to the latest data released by the Municipal Bureau of Agriculture, in January this year, affected by the latest new corona epidemic in the surrounding cities, vegetables, eggs, etc. of the whole city.Farm productsTemporary obstructions occurred in and out of Beijing, prices for vegetables and pork reached the highest levels in the same period in history, and egg prices experienced a “roller coaster” and a “basket of vegetables.”marketPrice fluctuationsOn the rise, the general trend of volume reduction and price increase.

Tracking data shows that in January this year, the average price of vegetables in the city’s seven wholesale markets was 4.37 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 34.5% from the previous month, approaching the point highest in history. However, the competent person in charge of the Municipal Directorate of Agriculture also pointed out that, from a later point of view, the shortage of vegetables will be alleviated after the Spring Festival. Prices will drop month-on-month in February, but will still be higher than last year’s year-on-year level.

Eggs and water also go up with the price of vegetablesproduct, Fresh fruit and cereals, etc.Productprice. The month-on-month increase in the aforementioned commodities reached 9.4%, 3.3%, 2.3% and 0.3%, respectively, affecting the increase in the CPI by approximately 0.06, 0.06, 0.04 and 0.01 percentage points respectively.

Prices for the other seven categories rose and fell six months from the previous month. among them,trafficThe prices of communications, other supplies and services, education, culture and entertainment increased 0.9%, 0.5% and 0.4%; the prices of services and daily necessities, housing and medical attention increased 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.1%; clothing prices fell 0.4%.

　　Bank of MinshengThink Tank MacroteamIt is believed that with the continued rise in international oil prices,Refined oilPrices have risen six times in a row, driving up energy-related prices in the transportation and residential categories, as well as increasing pressure on downstream transmission. As a result, the overall CPI, including food and energy, increased significantly from the previous month.

　　Price of the “small peak” pig as expectedto

As the traditional holiday of the Spring Festival approaches, the meatMarket demandThe rise in pork caused all meat prices to temporarily return to record highs. In the increase in the CPI compared to the previous month, the price of cattle meat increased by 3.7%, which affected the increase in the CPI by approximately 0.16 percentage points, of which the price of pork increased 5.6%, which affected the increase in the CPI by approximately 0.12 percentage points.

According to the market monitoring data of the Ministry of Commerce, in the four weeks of January, the domestic market price of pork per kilogram increased from 46.77 yuan to 47.47 yuan, and then again reached a high of 45.8 yuan. Boss in SozhuAnalystAccording to Feng Yonghui, the Spring Festival is the peak consumption season of the year. Affected by previous bacon production in the south and north, the live pig market is still in a period of high fluctuations. However, Due to the proximity of the Spring Festival, the maximum consumption rate is about to pass, and the probability of a sharp increase and a sharp drop is small.

In addition to market demand and other factors, the previous cold snap also held back the rising price of pork. Some ranchers said that during the cold snap, the intrusion of cold air increased the cost of raising pigs, and today is the beginning of the “resistance ban” in the country. After ditching antibiotics for feed, rising health care costs further affects the price of live pigs for slaughter.

During the same period, affected by factors such as increased consumer demand before the holidays and rising feed costs, beef and sheep meat prices rose with rising pork prices, which they increased 1.2% and 2.7% respectively.

However, Feng Yonghui also pointed out that the northern pork consumption demand is not as good as the southern one for producing bacon, and the overall duration is relatively short and it has not yet acted in the pork consumption market. terminal. It is expected that after the Spring Festival, the price of live pigs will not fluctuate too much and will basically remain stable.

In order to ensure the supply of pork during the Spring Festival, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have organized the China Merchants Reserve Center to release the central reserve of frozen pork in 9 batches during the year, with a total listed supply of 240,000 tons; Furthermore, on February 9, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and eight other departments republished “About Doing a Good Job in the Spring Festival and the National Period of” Two Sessions.Farm productsStable offer and pricejobs“Notice”, once again clarified that in accordance with the committed target of stable pig production and supply in 2021, all localities must accelerate the restoration of pig production capacity, coordinate the production of cattle, sheep and poultry and the aquaculture, and orient farms (households) to adjust and release the pond in time according to changes in market demand Plan to effectively guarantee production during the Spring Festival and the National “Two Sessions”supply。

　　There is still room for improvement in consumer demand

It is worth noting that even if market demand is relatively strong on the eve of the Spring Festival, from the perspective of the year-on-year growth rate of the CPI, there is still room for domestic demand to release. According to statistics, among the 0.3% year-on-year drop in January, the carry-over impact of last year’s price changes was about -1.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.0 percentage point. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, fell 0.3% year-on-year.

“This is the first time that the underlying CPI has turned negative since data is available, reflectingResident consumptionDemand remains weak. Wu Chaoming, chief economist at Caixin Securities, said this is related to the recent spread of the epidemic, which has slowed the growth of the contact services industry. For example, the growth rate of transportation remains negative, and the growth of education, culture and entertainment is low; at the same time; and under the impact of the epidemicresidence incomeThe slowdown in growth is related to continued negative growth in house and clothing prices.

Wu Chaoming predicted that February CPI will rise about 0.0% year-on-year. Among them, food prices will fall slightly compared to the previous month.For example, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, as of February 9, the prices of 28 monitored key vegetables, 7 monitored key fruits and pork increased 3.6% , 2.8% and -3.1%, respectively, with respect to the previous month. all of which were significantly lower than in January; the quarterly average wholesale price of pork is as high as 48 yuan / kg, which is highBase effectThe high volatility of the lower prices of pork will not have a strong effect on the CPI. Affected by factors such as the definitive recovery of global demand, the disappearance of the local epidemic and the monthly fall in non-food prices last year, the effect of non-food on the CPI will increase ;, The drag factor of the CPI in February it fell by 0.8 percentage points from January

However, the Minsheng macro team believes that due to various factors, the CPI may fall back into a negative range. “This month’s CPI coincides with the five-year base period conversion and weight adjustment from the Bureau of Statistics. As food prices have risen significantly in the last five years, the cumulative rise will weaken once The base period is restored. In addition, changes in household consumption baskets will cause the Bureau of Statistics to lower food prices. The ratio of food and energy has reduced the impact of food and energy on the CPI “.

(Source: Beijing Commercial Daily)

(Editor in charge: DF062)