What is the profound impact on the national economy from supply-side reform to demand-side reform? _ Eastern Fortune Network

Original title: From supply-side reform to demand-side reform, what is the profound impact on the national economy?

Politburo on December 11meetingIn China, the central government first proposed “demand-side reform.” According to the official statement, it is about cooperating with the currentsupplyLateral reforms with a view to a better balancenational economy. At the Central Conference on Economic Work held from 16 to 18 December this year, the “approach to demand management” was once again proposed. The two important central meetings emphasized the “demand side”, which is evident by its particularity and importance. So, from the end of 2015, the Central Conference of Economic Work proposed “Offer side“Reform”, to this year’s “demand side reform”, what kind of chess will the central government play and what impact will it have on the national economy?

　　“Subtract” with the left hand and “Add” with the right hand

“Supply-side structural reform” was first proposed at the 11th meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Leading Group in 2015 and became the main line of economic policy during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. This year, the Central Conference on Economic Work proposed to “focus on demand-side management” and also sent a signal: expand domestic demand, form a strong domestic market, and mention a more important position than ever.

in”Supply-side reformThe “three eliminations, a reduction and a supplement” in “” focus on the “subtraction” to reduce the ineffective low supply and leave a new space for economic development. After more than five years of practice and implementation, the supply-side reforms have achieved remarkable results. China’s economic structure continues to optimize. However, there are still certain structural problems on China’s demand side. In the special year in which the epidemic is sweeping this year, the central government once again introduced “demand-side management” to solve this problem.

Recently, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that “the main line of structural reform on the supply side must be strongly twisted and management on the demand side must be emphasized.”Social Security, Optimize the income distribution structure “and so on.

This shows that the focus of China’s economy is shifting to the demand side and the strategy of “managing the demand side”Base pointIt is “persistent in the expansion of domestic demand.” The new policy focuses on “addition”, which is in the same vein as the “dual cycle” economic strategy. Under this strategy, China will seek to rely more on domestic demand and local innovation to meet external challenges.

“The way of civil and martial arts, relax one by one.” High-quality development of China’s economy requires both “supply-side reform” and “demand-side management”. Both are the two wings of the economy and must be considered at the same time to avoid structural deviations and achieve high-quality and sustainable economic development.

　　The national and international environment is increasingly complicated and it is necessary to increase internal circulation

The “demand side management” proposal has attracted public attention. Stock reduction, capacity reduction, deleveraging, cost reduction and repair of deficiencies have become the specific objectives of the reform, and reforms in the supply of the system are also constantly advancing. What is the reason for the central government’s proposal for “management on the supply and demand side”?

First, there is still an imbalance between total supply and total demand. Core this yearCPIContinuing to fall, especially in November, the CPI touched an 11-year low. The new low of the CPI reflects that aggregate demand remains slow and that the trend of gradual decline has not changed. There is still a gap in the balance between total supply and total demand in China, and both sides need to adjust. In the past, the emphasis was on reform on the supply side. Now, the demand side also needs to reform. This is also the basis of the inner cycle.

Second, structural adjustment on the side of domestic and international demand does not allow for delay. The external dependence of the Chinese economy reaches 35%. Due to the epidemic and other factors, fluctuations in foreign demand still have a great impact on the domestic market. To maintain growth momentum, China needs to catch up and offset the impact of falling external demand. The moderate retention of foreign demand in China is one of the structural adjustments.

Third, the “stuck neck” problem of key technologies is still urgent. China has made great achievements in the field of science and technology, but there are still shortcomings in some key areas, such as chips. High-end chips, basic components and other fields are limited by others. This has become usindustryThe safety and restrictive factors of building a new development pattern This needs to happenIndustrial innovationAnd the technological revolution to reducemonopolyDependency on the manufacturer, onlyIndustrial chainOnly upgrades can create a new, broad and higher level of demand.

Furthermore, the uncertainty factors of the international and domestic situation have increased, so the increase in the domestic cycle is more important.

　　How to change the demand side?

Only by focusing on demand side management, insisting on expanding domestic demand, and realizing the transformation of the consumption pattern based on the stratification of consumption, supply and demand can be healthyinteractiveThe great domestic market. Specifically, efforts can be made from the following three aspects:

The first is to “reduce the burden” of sticky spending and improve ability to pay. Today, housing, health care and education are the top three sticky expenses of domestic residents, which have reduced residents’ willingness to consume to varying degrees and the need for “relief.”

In terms of housing, you have to controlhouse priceAdhering to “no housing speculation” to prevent excessively fast housing prices from squeezing the consumption potential of residents; On the other hand, we must pay attention to the construction of affordable rental housing, accelerate the improvement of long-term rental policies and gradually enjoy the rental and purchase housing.Public serviceHave the same rights in

In terms of health care, continually improveinsurance, Serious medical illnessinsurance, PensioninsuranceAnd rate and level of pension coverage. Develop vigorously in addition to the basic pensioncompanypension,dealSex pensioninsuranceAnd other systems.

In terms of education, intensify educational reforms, continuously improve urban and rural teachers’ incomes and the quality and equalization of education, break the restrictions of the household registration system, and relieve common people, especially urban migrants , of your concerns about schooling.

The second is to guide the improvement of the residents’ needs. According to Maslow’s Hierarchy of Human Needs Theory, human needs are composed of five levels: physiological needs, security needs, needs for belonging and love, needs for respect, and needs for self-actualization. to spiritual, fromproductTo the process of updating the consumption of services.

With the improvement of material standards of living, people’s yearning for a better life is not met by their physical needs and they begin to seek a higher level of spiritual life. In general, the spiritual needs of domestic residents are still in their infancy. One of the priorities of “demand management” is to guide residents towards a positive consumer outlook, such as stimulating demand for “entertainment, education and rehabilitation”, thus freeing residents from the demand for online games, poker and mahjong.

Relative toTraditional consumptionForms, education, health, pensions, culture, tourism, etc. not only meet the needs to improve people’s quality of life, but also benefit.human capitalConsumption of services that accumulate and enhance social creativity is growing rapidly.

The third is to adjust the structure of consumption according to the new concept of social development. Demand-side reforms need to be oriented around the new concept of social development, namely “innovation, coordination, green, openness and participation.”

Take innovation as an example: at present, the structure of the national supply has not adjusted over time, resulting in an excess supply of low-end products and an insufficient supply of high-end products. This requires the need to combine demand-side reforms with the upgrading of the core technology industry chain and technology innovation. The emergence and expansion of mid- to high-end demand will drive companies to accelerate technological innovation and improve production efficiency, forcing structural optimization on the supply side and improvement of supply.

Of course, focusing on demand-side management is by no means not on the supply side, but rather a perfect measure to tighten up supply-side reforms. Both hands should be held and the two should work together to seek a balanced development of internal circulation.

(Source: Communication Information Newspaper)

(Responsible editor: DF358)